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China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)1 "Is Fertility in China 1991-92 Far Below Replacement Level? Yi, Zeng. 1996. POPULATION STUDIES, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 27-

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Presentation on theme: "China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)1 "Is Fertility in China 1991-92 Far Below Replacement Level? Yi, Zeng. 1996. POPULATION STUDIES, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 27-"— Presentation transcript:

1 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)1 "Is Fertility in China Far Below Replacement Level? Yi, Zeng POPULATION STUDIES, vol. 50, no. 1, pp

2 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)2 ChinaChina: Total fertility rate Description: This measure indicates the number of children a woman would have during her reproductive years if in each five-year age interval from ages 15–49 she had the number of children that women of that age currently have in the population as a whole. The data refer to the average projected for the period Source: UNFPA, State of World Population 2003 Category: Population Ranking: 108 ( ) - Show rankingShow ranking Unit of measurement: Average number of children Bar chart (Only one data point) Table Year

3 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)3 Population 2009 Estimates Average population growth rate 0.7Percent Population aged 65 and above 7.00Percent Population under age Percent Total fertility rate1.80 Average number of children Total population1 320Mill. inhabitants Urban growth rate3.22 Percent Urban Population40.5Percent Source:

4 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)4 Source and ComparisonsFertility Rate Year 1992 Report SFPC (State Family Planning Commission) China Replacement Rate US Rate PAST DECADE IN CHINA MAX MIN Census2.3 to Summary of Results Across Time

5 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)5 ISSUE Why the huge and sudden drop recorded in 1992 survey? –Is it correct? –What might have effected its outcome? –Can it be corrected?

6 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)6 A. Why 1992 Survey might have increased underreporting 1. Background: Coverage of Study All China Covered All China Covered 385,000 people or 0.35 per 1000 women 385,000 people or 0.35 per 1000 women 50% Women of reproductive age 50% Women of reproductive age

7 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)7 A. Why 1992 Survey might have increased underreporting 2. Three Unique Features -- purpose to guarantee quality of results, unfortunately might have in fact biased results -- 1)Enumerators 2)Questionnaire 3)Register

8 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)8 1) Enumerators In past Surveys: Not FPC (Family Planning Commission) personnel In past Surveys: Not FPC (Family Planning Commission) personnel –For example: 1990 census generally were not FPC employees –Many not highly skilled – high school students, retirees,… –When FPC employees used, used outside area they administered

9 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)9 Change for Study 1992 study exclusively used FPC workers and they checked areas that they administered –Why such approach Cut costs Cut costs Locals well acquainted with situation, harder to hide information from them Locals well acquainted with situation, harder to hide information from them

10 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)10 Results Although promised punishment would not occur to FPC officials if results show changes from past, trust was low Local Officials already caught in a lie may need to continue to lie Local Officials already caught in a lie may need to continue to lie

11 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)11 Why low trust??? Past Problem of 1990 Census Example in Anhiu Province for 1990 census stated: –Truth to be unpunished -- please report the truth –However after count conducted law was changed and punishment applied sorry, we caught you sorry, we caught you Typical of post-Liberation government programs Typical of post-Liberation government programs

12 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)12 2) Questionnaire Issues (how it was written) Unplanned births highlighted in 1992 survey (tip-off) Unplanned births highlighted in 1992 survey (tip-off) Result -- least likely to report most recent unplanned birth when fine not yet paid Result -- least likely to report most recent unplanned birth when fine not yet paid Focus on unplanned births could cause officials to suggest lying as the correct strategy -- long history of telling the Govt. what it wants to hear Focus on unplanned births could cause officials to suggest lying as the correct strategy -- long history of telling the Govt. what it wants to hear

13 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)13 3) Title of survey made it look like permanent register Increase fear level of respondents No one wants to get on permanent list No one wants to get on permanent list the nail that sticks out gets hammered the nail that sticks out gets hammered

14 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)14 C. "One Vote Down" Campaign Another problem Officials made personally responsible for targets Officials made personally responsible for targets Basic reaction -- cover one's own backside -- villagers explicitly asked to lie Basic reaction -- cover one's own backside -- villagers explicitly asked to lie

15 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)15 D. Empirical Evidence of Underreporting 1. Studies demonstrates underreporting close to 30% -- see 1993 survey as example 2. Systematic errors (bias) apparent by reviewing past surveys

16 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)16 Summary of Data -- note trends Underreporting Underreporting Systematic errors (bias) Systematic errors (bias) Matching-up Catching-up Phenomena Matching-up Catching-up Phenomena Special 1992 Errors Special 1992 Errors Reported Total Fertility from various sources Survey CensusSurvey Year

17 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)17 Before 1992 Survey: Matching-up/Catching-up Phenomena Later values always bigger than initial value (note each row) –Why? Perhaps fine already paid or dealt with in other manner –Officials might benefit from higher "corrected" numbers and lower "false" current values Reported Total Fertility from various sources SurveySurveyCensus Year

18 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996) Survey Seems to have special new problems, Perhaps result of "one vote down" and other factors Perhaps result of "one vote down" and other factors Errors even in earlier data starting with 1988 Errors even in earlier data starting with 1988 –note values are even lower than previous Reported Total Fertility from various sources SurveySurveyCensusSurvey Year

19 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)19 So Whats Correct??? Can we determine actual values??? Can we determine actual values??? Yi presents his methodology for doing just that (we will accept his method and look at his results) Yi presents his methodology for doing just that (we will accept his method and look at his results)

20 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)20 D. Yis Adjustment of 1992 results Based on 1993 study adjust upward 1992 results by about 30% –Note error greater in latest years –Note greater error in rural areas (see paper) Table 3: Adjustment of TF in 1992 Survey Year Reported TF Under- reporting rate Adjusted TF

21 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)21 Conclusions 1. Fertility Seriously underreported in early 1990s Reasons include: pressure to reach target pressure to reach target one vote down campaign one vote down campaign questionnaire title and design questionnaire title and design selection of enumerators selection of enumerators

22 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)22 Conclusions… 2. After adjustment true total fertility for at or slightly below replacement level Reasons: More implementation of family planning post 1991 More implementation of family planning post 1991 Economic development Economic development Move from rural to urban areas Move from rural to urban areas

23 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)23 CURRENT SITUATION China - Total fertility rate HomeHome > China > People > Total fertility rateChinaPeople 1.77 children born/woman (2008 est.) Total fertility rate by Year Chart Total fertility rate Rank Chart Total fertility rate by Year Chart Total fertility rate Rank Chart Year Total fertility rate (children born/woman)

24 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)24

25 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)25 Final Thought As a Confucian Culture, Why is there such difficulty in determining the truth? As a Confucian Culture, Why is there such difficulty in determining the truth?

26 China Fertility (Zheng, 1996)26


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