1. A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200
A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200. On the way out the door, the decision maker considers taking an umbrella. With the umbrella on hand, the suit will be protected in the event of rain. Without the umbrella, the suit will be ruined if it rains. On the other hand, if it does not rain, carrying the umbrella is an unnecessary inconvenience.
1. Draw an influence diagram of this situation
2. Draw a decision tree of this situation
3. Before deciding, the decision maker considers listening to the weather forecast on the radio. Draw a decision tree that takes into account the weather forecast

2. a. Influence Diagram Alternatives Take Don’t Take Outcomes Rain
No Rain
Weather
Take Umbrella?
Protect
Suit
Convenience
Overall
Satisfaction
Choices
Outcomes
Consequences
Take
Rain
Suit Protected, Inconvenience
No Rain
Don’t Take
Suit Ruined, Convenience
Suit Protected, Convenience a.
Influence Diagram

3. b. Decision Tree Take Umbrella Suit Protected, Inconvenience Rain
Suit Ruined, Convenience
Don’t Take
No Rain
Suit Protected, Convenience b.
Decision Tree

4. c. Decision Tree Take Umbrella Suit Protected, Inconvenience Rain
Suit Ruined, Convenience
“Will Rain”
Don’t Take
No Rain
Suit Protected, Convenience
Forecast
Take Umbrella
Suit Protected, Inconvenience
“Will Not Rain”
Rain
Suit Ruined, Convenience
Don’t Take
No Rain
Suit Protected, Convenience c.
Decision Tree