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1 A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200. On the way out the door, the decision maker considers taking an umbrella. With.

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Presentation on theme: "1 A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200. On the way out the door, the decision maker considers taking an umbrella. With."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 A dapper young decision maker has just purchased a new suit for $200. On the way out the door, the decision maker considers taking an umbrella. With the umbrella on hand, the suit will be protected in the event of rain. Without the umbrella, the suit will be ruined if it rains. On the other hand, if it does not rain, carrying the umbrella is an unnecessary inconvenience. 1. Draw an influence diagram of this situation 2. Draw a decision tree of this situation 3. Before deciding, the decision maker considers listening to the weather forecast on the radio. Draw a decision tree that takes into account the weather forecast

2 Take Umbrella? Weather Overall Satisfaction Alternatives Take Dont Take Outcomes Rain No Rain Protect Suit Convenience ChoicesOutcomesConsequences Take Rain Suit Protected, Inconvenience No Rain Suit Protected, Inconvenience Dont Take Rain Suit Ruined, Convenience No Rain Suit Protected, Convenience a. Influence Diagram

3 Take Umbrella Dont Take Rain No Rain Suit Protected, Inconvenience Suit Ruined, Convenience Suit Protected, Convenience b. Decision Tree

4 Take Umbrella Dont Take Rain No Rain Suit Protected, Inconvenience Suit Ruined, Convenience Suit Protected, Convenience c. Decision Tree Take Umbrella Dont Take Rain No Rain Suit Protected, Inconvenience Suit Ruined, Convenience Suit Protected, Convenience Will Rain Will Not Rain Forecast


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