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SOFTWARE TOOL FOR MODELLING MORTALITY INTENSITIES AND LIFE TABLES CONSTRUCTION B. Burcin 1, K. Hulíková Tesárková 1, D. Kománek 2, T. Kučera 1 Charles.

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Presentation on theme: "SOFTWARE TOOL FOR MODELLING MORTALITY INTENSITIES AND LIFE TABLES CONSTRUCTION B. Burcin 1, K. Hulíková Tesárková 1, D. Kománek 2, T. Kučera 1 Charles."— Presentation transcript:

1 SOFTWARE TOOL FOR MODELLING MORTALITY INTENSITIES AND LIFE TABLES CONSTRUCTION B. Burcin 1, K. Hulíková Tesárková 1, D. Kománek 2, T. Kučera 1 Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science 1 Department of Demography and Geodemography 2 Centre for Information Technologies Prague, Czech Republic PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz

2 INTRODUCTION DO YOU NEED to calculate numerous life tables in one step? to smooth intensities of mortality? to extrapolate probabilities till the highest ages? to select among six mortality models? to compare them in text and graphical outputs? THEN DO TRY AND EXPERIENCE PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz

3 INTRODUCTION WHAT? DeRaS (Death Rates Simulations) is a new software application designed for an efficient life table construction under several detailed conditions defined by the user. This presentation briefly introduces the application, its basic features and main advantages. WHO? DeRaS is useful for all who need to quickly and efficiently construct one, two, ten or even up to hundreds of life tables for more populations and/or who want to use different methods of mortality data smoothing and extrapolating. PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz

4 INTRODUCTION HOW? DeRaS offers six generally recognized mortality models – Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham as two representatives of exponential functions, two logistic functions (Kannisto and Thatcher with constant) and two less frequently used models (Coale-Kisker, Heligman-Pollard). Model parameters are estimated by the iteratively reweighted (nonlinear) least squares method. WHERE? DeRaS has its own web presentation (http://deras.natur.cuni.cz) keeping all necessary documentation at your disposal. PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz

5 OPEN THE INPUT FILE AND DEFINE OUTPUT DIRECTORY SELECT YEARS CHOSEN TO CALCULATE LIFE TABLES SET AGES TO BE USED IN THE PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND THE AGE WHERE THE LIFE TABLE SHOULD END AT AS WELL DERAS ALLOWS YOU TO CHOOSE AMONG SIX THE MOST COMMON PARAMETRIC FUNCTIONS FOR SMOOTHING AND EXTRAPOLATING MORTALITY INTENSITIES DERAS APPLICATION CONSISTS OF TWO BASIC COMPONENTS: CONSOLE APPLICATION PROCESSING IN A CONSOLE WINDOW AND GRAPHICAL INTERFACE (FRONTEND )

6 DERAS OFFERS THE CONSTRUCTION OF COMPLETE OR ABRIDGED LIFE TABLES AND OUTPUTS IN A "COMBINED" FORM WHERE RESULTS RELATED TO MORE MORTALITY MODELS ARE ALL CONTAINED IN ONE FILE

7 GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS IN A SIMPLE FORM SERVE FOR THE LIFE TABLE FUNCTIONS DESCRIPTION

8 ADVANCED FORM OF GRAPHICS ALLOWS COMPARING RESULTS BASED ON SELECTED MODEL FUNCTIONS IN ONE COMBINED CHART

9 STANDARDIZED INPUT FILE PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz INPUT FILE CONSISTS OF THREE DATA SECTIONS 1. NUMBER OF DEATHS BY SINGLE AGE GROUPS 2. MID-YEAR POPULATION BY SINGLE AGE GROUPS 3. TOTAL NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS

10 TEXT OUTPUT FILE PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz THIS IS THE EXAMPLE OF TEXT OUTPUT FILE THE CALCULATED LIFE TABLE IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE OUTPUT SHEET ORIGINAL INPUT DATA ARE REPEATED IN THE MIDDLE ADDITIONAL USEFUL INFORMATION IS INSERTED ON THE RIGHT

11 BASIC CHART OUTPUTS PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz EXAMPLES OF GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS FOR SELECTED TABLE FUNCTIONS

12 BASIC CHART OUTPUTS PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz EXAMPLES OF GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS FOR SELECTED TABLE FUNCTIONS

13 BASIC CHART OUTPUTS PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz EXAMPLES OF GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS FOR SELECTED TABLE FUNCTIONS

14 BASIC CHART OUTPUTS PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz EXAMPLES OF GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS FOR SELECTED TABLE FUNCTIONS

15 ADVANCED CHART OUTPUTS PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz ADVANCED GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS ALLOW COMPARING RESULTS BASED ON PROBABILITY OF DYING MODEL FUNCTIONS APPLICATION IN ONE CHART

16 FUTURE PLANS WHAT? Implementation of additional smoothing and extrapolating models, using more statistical measures indicating the model quality, additional text and graphical outputs, etc. FEEDBACK Do not hesitate to contact us with any comments, ideas or proposals for future development. We would really appreciate it! PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CAWeb: deras.natur.cuni.czEmail: deras@natur.cuni.cz

17 FOR MORE INFORMATION GO TO HTTP://DERAS.NATUR.CUNI.CZ OR CONTACT THE AUTHORS THANK YOU! CONTACT: Olga Sivková email: deras@natur.cuni.cz (preferably), web: deras.natur.cuni.cz (contact form), phone: +420 604 327 366 Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of Demography and Geodemography, Albertov 6, 128 43 Prague 2, Czech Republic


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