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PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

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Presentation on theme: "PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA"— Presentation transcript:

1 PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA
SOFTWARE TOOL FOR MODELLING MORTALITY INTENSITIES AND LIFE TABLES CONSTRUCTION B. Burcin1, K. Hulíková Tesárková1, D. Kománek2, T. Kučera1 Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science 1Department of Demography and Geodemography 2Centre for Information Technologies Prague, Czech Republic PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

2 PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA
INTRODUCTION DO YOU NEED to calculate numerous life tables in one step? to smooth intensities of mortality? to extrapolate probabilities till the highest ages? to select among six mortality models? to compare them in text and graphical outputs? THEN DO TRY AND EXPERIENCE PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

3 PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA
INTRODUCTION WHAT? DeRaS (Death Rates Simulations) is a new software application designed for an efficient life table construction under several detailed conditions defined by the user. This presentation briefly introduces the application, its basic features and main advantages. WHO? DeRaS is useful for all who need to quickly and efficiently construct one, two, ten or even up to hundreds of life tables for more populations and/or who want to use different methods of mortality data smoothing and extrapolating. PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

4 PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA
INTRODUCTION HOW? DeRaS offers six generally recognized mortality models – Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham as two representatives of exponential functions, two logistic functions (Kannisto and Thatcher with constant) and two less frequently used models (Coale-Kisker, Heligman-Pollard). Model parameters are estimated by the iteratively reweighted (nonlinear) least squares method. WHERE? DeRaS has its own web presentation (http://deras.natur.cuni.cz) keeping all necessary documentation at your disposal. PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

5 OPEN THE INPUT FILE AND DEFINE OUTPUT DIRECTORY
DERAS APPLICATION CONSISTS OF TWO BASIC COMPONENTS: CONSOLE APPLICATION PROCESSING IN A CONSOLE WINDOW AND GRAPHICAL INTERFACE (FRONTEND ) OPEN THE INPUT FILE AND DEFINE OUTPUT DIRECTORY SELECT YEARS CHOSEN TO CALCULATE LIFE TABLES SET AGES TO BE USED IN THE PARAMETER ESTIMATION AND THE AGE WHERE THE LIFE TABLE SHOULD END AT AS WELL DERAS ALLOWS YOU TO CHOOSE AMONG SIX THE MOST COMMON PARAMETRIC FUNCTIONS FOR SMOOTHING AND EXTRAPOLATING MORTALITY INTENSITIES

6 DERAS OFFERS THE CONSTRUCTION OF COMPLETE OR ABRIDGED LIFE TABLES AND OUTPUTS IN
A "COMBINED" FORM WHERE RESULTS RELATED TO MORE MORTALITY MODELS ARE ALL CONTAINED IN ONE FILE

7 GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS IN A SIMPLE FORM SERVE FOR THE LIFE TABLE FUNCTIONS DESCRIPTION

8 ADVANCED FORM OF GRAPHICS ALLOWS COMPARING RESULTS BASED ON SELECTED MODEL FUNCTIONS IN ONE COMBINED CHART

9 STANDARDIZED INPUT FILE
INPUT FILE CONSISTS OF THREE DATA SECTIONS 1. NUMBER OF DEATHS BY SINGLE AGE GROUPS 2. MID-YEAR POPULATION BY SINGLE AGE GROUPS 3. TOTAL NUMBER OF LIVE BIRTHS PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

10 PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA
TEXT OUTPUT FILE THIS IS THE EXAMPLE OF TEXT OUTPUT FILE THE CALCULATED LIFE TABLE IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE OUTPUT SHEET ADDITIONAL USEFUL INFORMATION IS INSERTED ON THE RIGHT ORIGINAL INPUT DATA ARE REPEATED IN THE MIDDLE PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

11 PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA
BASIC CHART OUTPUTS EXAMPLES OF GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS FOR SELECTED TABLE FUNCTIONS PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

12 PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA
BASIC CHART OUTPUTS EXAMPLES OF GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS FOR SELECTED TABLE FUNCTIONS PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

13 PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA
BASIC CHART OUTPUTS EXAMPLES OF GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS FOR SELECTED TABLE FUNCTIONS PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

14 PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA
BASIC CHART OUTPUTS EXAMPLES OF GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS FOR SELECTED TABLE FUNCTIONS PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

15 ADVANCED CHART OUTPUTS
ADVANCED GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS ALLOW COMPARING RESULTS BASED ON PROBABILITY OF DYING MODEL FUNCTIONS APPLICATION IN ONE CHART PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

16 PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA
FUTURE PLANS WHAT? Implementation of additional smoothing and extrapolating models, using more statistical measures indicating the model quality, additional text and graphical outputs, etc. FEEDBACK Do not hesitate to contact us with any comments, ideas or proposals for future development. We would really appreciate it! PAA 2012 Annual Meeting, May 3–5, San Francisco, CA

17 FOR MORE INFORMATION GO TO HTTP://DERAS. NATUR. CUNI
FOR MORE INFORMATION GO TO OR CONTACT THE AUTHORS THANK YOU! CONTACT: Olga Sivková (preferably), web: deras.natur.cuni.cz (contact form), phone: Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of Demography and Geodemography, Albertov 6, Prague 2, Czech Republic


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