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Quarterly Workforce Indicators: Concepts and Construction C2ER Training Workshop June 4, 2012 Stephen Tibbets LEHD Program US Census Bureau.

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Presentation on theme: "Quarterly Workforce Indicators: Concepts and Construction C2ER Training Workshop June 4, 2012 Stephen Tibbets LEHD Program US Census Bureau."— Presentation transcript:

1 Quarterly Workforce Indicators: Concepts and Construction C2ER Training Workshop June 4, 2012 Stephen Tibbets LEHD Program US Census Bureau

2 Underlying Concepts: Construction of the LEHD Infrastructure Goals: Understand concepts, basics of construction of LEHD infrastructure and processing Understand QWI measures, how data is used in LED products 2

3 Reference Materials QWI 101 –Overview of terms and measures QWI Cheatsheet –Reference for the structure of the public release QWI files QWI Comprehensive Index –Provides crosswalk between various naming conventions –Indicates how measures are used in online products Comparison of employment definitions –CPS vs. QCEW vs. LED 3

4 Additional References The LEHD Infrastructure Files and the Creation of the Quarterly Workforce Indicators –Primary reference for LEHD methodology Technical papers also available in the LEHD and CES working paper series on various topics Resources on the VirtualRDC for the Quarterly Workforce Indicators, OnTheMap, and the LEHD Infrastructure File System 4

5 Background: LEHD/LED LEHD: Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics –Program at Census –Data infrastructure (restricted use) LED: Local Employment Dynamics –Partnership between Census and States States voluntarily submit quarterly data –Public use data products QWI (QWI Online, Industry Focus) LODES (OnTheMap) 5

6 Unemployment Insurance (UI) Earnings Records Core data input file of LEHD infrastructure Collected for operation of state UI program –UI benefits are based on historical earnings Report earnings for all covered jobs –Total quarterly earnings for each job –Firm identified by State UI Account number (referred to as SEIN) –Worker identified by Protected Identification Key (PIK - Census identifier based on SSN) 6

7 Unemployment Insurance Coverage Most private sector jobs covered –for-profit and not-for-profit classified together (as per QCEW standard) State and local government also in system, though some reporting inconsistencies Federal data not available –Data based on Office of Personnel Management under development Self-employed not available –Data derived from tax records under development Massachusetts data not available yet 7

8 Federal EIN UI Account Number (SEIN) PIK (encoded SSN) LEHD Processing: Merging Data 8 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Firm and Establishment (Single/Multi-unit) Geography Industry Ownership Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Firm and Establishment (Single/Multi-unit) Geography Industry Ownership Unemployment Insurance Wage Records Firm-Worker (most states) OR Establishment-Worker (Minnesota only) Earnings Job history Unemployment Insurance Wage Records Firm-Worker (most states) OR Establishment-Worker (Minnesota only) Earnings Job history Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) Firm age and size Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) Firm age and size Census, Surveys, Other Administrative Records Demographics Place of Residence Census, Surveys, Other Administrative Records Demographics Place of Residence

9 Basic Concepts and Definitions Employer (SEIN - firm) –single Unemployment Insurance (UI) account in a given states UI wage reporting system Workplace location (SEINUNIT - establishment) –Not available on UI earnings records, except for MN Employee (PIK) –at least one employer reports earnings of at least one dollar of UI-covered earnings for an individual Dates –Year and quarter UI earnings records reported on a quarterly basis Boundary between quarters is the employment reference date –Beginning (and sometimes end) of QWI time series vary between states Earliest start in

10 Job: Definition Job (PIK-SEIN-SEINUNIT) –coupling of specific individual with specific employer and location in a given year/quarter –An individual may have multiple jobs within a quarter The primary job (job with greatest earnings) is not defined separately in QWI, though it does appear in OnTheMap The job is the basic unit of analysis within the LEHD Infrastructure –National longitudinal job frame –Jobs are linked across years and quarters to develop measures 10

11 QWI Measure Aggregation Measures are calculated at the job level, referencing the full employment history of the individual Measures are all built from linearly aggregable components –For averages, means are used, rather than medians Jobs are aggregated to generate estimates of QWI measures at desired levels 11

12 QWI Aggregation Levels: Establishment Establishment level characteristics –Geography State totals County, Metro, Workforce Investment Board areas –Industry All industries NAICS Sectors, Sub-sectors (3-digit), Industry groups (4-digit) –Ownership All (1-5) –Public + private, as available Private-only (5) All crossings of these characteristics reported 12

13 QWI Aggregation Levels: Firm Characteristics of the national level firm –Firm Age (years) 0-1, 2-3, 4-5, 6-10, 11+ –Firm Size (employees) 0-19, 20-49, , , 500+ Private ownership (5) only Reduced detail on geography/industry tabulations 13

14 QWI Aggregation Levels: Employee 1. Age/Sex Employee level characteristics –Age (years) 14-18, 19-21, 22-24, 25-34,35-44, 45-54, 55-64, –Sex Male, Female Age categories from Workforce Investment Act (WIA) 14

15 QWI Aggregation Levels: Employee 2. Race/Ethnicity Employee level characteristics –Race White alone African-American or Black alone Asian or Pacific alone Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander alone American Indian or Alaska Native alone Two or More Races –Ethnicity Hispanic or Latino Not Hispanic or Latino OMB categories 15

16 QWI Aggregation Levels: Employee 3. Education Employee level characteristics –Education Less than a High School Diploma High School Diploma, No College Some college or Associates Degree Bachelors Degree or Above Valid only for individuals age 25 and up –Reflects persons maximum education level Crossed by Sex in QWI tabulations 16

17 QWI Production Process: Key Stages 17

18 QWI Measures The QWI public use files contain a series of 30 measures –Employment Stock and flow measures (individual) Job creation/destruction (firm/establishment) –Earnings Average earnings Change in earnings –Periods of non-employment 18

19 QWI Measures Measures are reported for all of the aggregations listed in the earlier slides A broader range of theoretical measures are defined in the technical papers, though many are not estimated in regular production The entire time series is re-estimated in every data release –Data updates, modifications to algorithms, stochastic imputations may change historical data 19

20 Employment History Jobs are linked across years and quarters to develop an individuals employment history with a firm –PIK-SEIN-SEINUNIT level –Some measures reference all jobs for individual The reference quarter is noted at t –Earlier quarters are negative, later positive For calculation of measures, –RED indicates positive earnings in quarter –BLACK indicates zero earnings in quarter –GREY indicates time period not referenced 20 Measure t

21 QWI Measures: Employment Stock MeasureDescription M (EmpTotal)Count of jobs B (Emp)Beginning of period employment E (EmpEnd)End of period employment F (EmpS)Full quarter employment 21

22 Details: Jobs See m and M on comprehensive index This variable is turned on (m=1) for every wage record in a states UI system that reports earnings of at least $1 in t This is a job for m (PIK-SEIN-SEINUNIT) This is a count of all persons ever paid by an employer at a location –By itself, it is not comparable to any other job-based statistic in the US system Captures many short-term jobs not picked up elsewhere Released in QWI public use files as EmpTotal and labeled as Employment reference quarter: Counts Not reported in QWI Online, Industry Focus 22 Measure t M (EmpTotal)

23 Details: Employment – Beginning of Period See b and B on comprehensive index This variable is turned on whenever an individual has positive earnings in both the previous and current quarters –m=1 for last quarter (t-1) and this quarter (t) b=1 means an individual was employed at a particular employer and location (PIK-SEIN-SEINUNIT) on the first calendar day of the quarter B is the count of beginning of quarter employment for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This is the main employment measure used in QWI and OnTheMap 23 Measure t B (Emp)

24 Beginning of Period Employment Will reference as b or B lowercase b – job level uppercase B – jobs aggregated to establishment or higher level Primary measure of employment for QWI and OnTheMap Defined when job is present in previous and current quarter –If earnings are received in consecutive quarters, individual is considered to be employed at firm on first day of the quarter Conceptually and empirically similar to QCEW Month 1 employment (Mon1) –Precise definitions, data sources, and methodology result in differences 24

25 Comparison of Employment Definitions See Employment Definitions handout –Originally prepared by George Putnam at the Illinois Department of Employment Security Compares household definitions (CPS) with employer-based definitions (QCEW) and UI wage- record-based definitions (QWI, OnTheMap, LED, generally) Caveat: –The description of the allocation process under LED in this handout is a simplification of the multiple imputation process actually used. It should not be taken as definitive. 25

26 Beginning of Period Employment: Use in LEHD Data Products In QWI Online reported as Total Employment In Industry Focus reported as Employment and used to calculate Growth in Employment In QWI public use files reported as Emp and labeled as Employment: Counts In OnTheMap reported as All Jobs or All Private Jobs in all reports 26

27 Beginning of Period Employment: QWI-OnTheMap Comparison In QWI, each job is counted separately, even if a worker has multiple jobs In OnTheMap, the beginning-of-quarter employment variable for the second quarter (April 1 reference date) is further refined –Primary job: b=1 and (SEIN-SEINUNIT) were the largest source of wage earnings for the second quarter among all employers for a given individual –All jobs: b=1 27

28 Details: Employment – End of Period See e and E on comprehensive index This variable is turned on whenever an individual has positive earnings in both the current and next quarters –m=1 for this quarter (t) and next quarter (t+1) e=1 means an individual was employed at a particular employer and location (PIK-SEIN-SEINUNIT) on the last calendar day of the quarter E is the count of end of quarter employment for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in only the QWI public use files, as EmpEnd. 28 Measure t E (EmpEnd)

29 Details: Employment – Full Period See f and F on comprehensive index This variable is turned on whenever an individual has positive earnings in the last, current and next quarters – m=1 for last quarter (t-1), this quarter (t) and next quarter (t+1) f=1 means an individual was employed at a particular employer and location (PIK-SEIN-SEINUNIT) throughout the current quarter F is the count of full quarter employment for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as EmpS and on OnTheMap as Employment, Stable Jobs 29 Measure t F (EmpS)

30 QWI Measures: Employment Stock 30 Measure t M (EmpTotal) B (Emp) E (EmpEnd) F (EmpS)

31 Graphs of QWI Measures Totals have been aggregated across all states –Weighted averages recalculated based on public data, where necessary Source: QWI R2012Q1 (production quarter release) –47 states represented (including DC) –LA, RI, VA skipped production –Massachusetts data not yet available Data for 2006Q1-2011Q2, as available –Not all measures available in all quarters For percentage change, symmetric calculation used –(M t -M t-4 )/((M t +M t-4 )/2) References current quarter and same quarter in previous year Private sector only 31

32 QWI Estimates: Employment Measures 32

33 QWI Estimates: Employment Measures Year-to-Year Percent Change 33

34 QWI Measures: Earnings (Stock measures) MeasureDescription Z_W2 (EarnEnd)Average earnings for end-of-quarter jobs Z_W3 (EarnS)Average earnings for full-quarter jobs W1 (Payroll)Total reported earnings 34

35 QWI Measures: Earnings (Stock measures) 35 Measure t Z_W2 (EarnEnd) $ Z_W3 (EarnS) $ W1 (Payroll)$

36 Basic Concepts: Earnings Point in time earnings –Defined for a reference group meeting a particular employment definition at a point in time (End-of- quarter employment) Full-quarter earnings –Defined for a reference group of full-quarter employment (Full-quarter employment, Full-quarter hires, Full-quarter new hires, Full-quarter separations) –Average earnings based on wage record earnings for the indicated quarter divided by 3 (monthly estimate) In graphics, dollar sign ($) indicates reference quarter for earnings 36

37 Details: Earnings – End-of-Quarter See Z_W2 on comprehensive index Earnings in quarter t are accumulated into W2 whenever an individual has positive earnings in the current and next quarter –m=1 for this quarter (t) and next quarter (t+1) Z_W2 is the average monthly earnings of end-of- quarter employees for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as EarnEnd 37 Measure t Z_W2 (EarnEnd) $

38 Details: Earnings – Full Quarter See Z_W3 on comprehensive index Earnings in quarter t are accumulated into W3 whenever an individual has positive earnings in the last, current and next quarters m=1 for last quarter (t-1), this quarter (t) and next quarter (t+1) Z_W3 is the average monthly earnings of full quarter employees for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as EarnS, on QWI Online as Avg Monthly Earnings, in Industry Focus as Average monthly earnings for all workers (and for growth), and on OnTheMap as Average Monthly Earnings, Stable Jobs 38 Measure t Z_W3 (EarnS) $

39 Details: Earnings Total Payroll See w1 and W1 on comprehensive index Earnings in quarter t are accumulated into W1 whenever an individual has positive earnings current quarter m=1 for this quarter (t) W1 is the total quarterly earnings of employees for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as Payroll 39 Measure t W1 (Payroll) $

40 QWI Estimates: Average Monthly Earnings 40

41 QWI Measures: Employment Flow MeasureDescription A (HirA)Accessions H (HirN)New Hires R (HirR)Recalls S (Sep)Separations FA (HirAS)Full-quarter Accessions H3 (HirNS)Full-quarter New Hires FS (SepS)Full-quarter Separations T (Turnover)Turnover (composite measure) 41

42 QWI Measures: Employment Flows 42 Measure t A (HirA) H (HirN) R (HirR) S (Sep) FA (HirAS) H3 (HirNS) FS (SepS)

43 Job-Based Measures: Employment Flow and Earnings Measures use longitudinal job history to identify changes in employment status Average earnings are calculated for some full-quarter measures Turnover is as a composite measure based on aggregates of flow measures 43

44 Details: Employment Flows- Accessions See a1 and A on comprehensive index An accession (a1) is turned on whenever an individual has positive earnings in the current and not in the previous quarter m=0 for last quarter (t-1) and m=1 this quarter (t) a1=1 means an individual was newly employed at a particular employer and location (PIK-SEIN- SEINUNIT) during the current quarter A is the count of all accessions for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as HirA 44 Measure t A (HirA)

45 Details: Employment Flows- New Hires See h1 and H on comprehensive index A new hire (h1) is turned on whenever an individual has an accession, with no earnings from the employer during the previous four quarters m=0 for last four quarters (t-4 to t-1) and m=1 this quarter (t) h1=1 means an individual was newly hired at a particular employer and location (PIK-SEIN-SEINUNIT) during the current quarter H is the count of all new hires for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as HirN and on QWI Online as New Hires 45 Measure t H (HirH)

46 Details: Employment Flows- Recalls See r1 and R on comprehensive index A recall (r1) is turned on whenever an individual has an accession, and also received earnings from the employer during the earlier three quarters m=1 for at least one of quarters (t-4, t-3, t-2), m=0 for last quarter (t-1) and m=1 this quarter (t) r1=1 means an individual was recalled at a particular employer and location (PIK-SEIN-SEINUNIT) during the current quarter R is the count of all recalls for an employer location (SEIN- SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as HirR 46 Measure t R (HirR)

47 Details: Employment Flows- Separations See s1 and S on comprehensive index A separation (s1) is turned on whenever an individual has no wage record in the next quarter but is present this quarter m=1 for current quarter (t) and m=0 next quarter (t+1) s1=1 means an individual was separated at a particular employer and location (PIK-SEIN- SEINUNIT) during the current quarter S is the count of all separations for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as Sep, and on QWI Online as Separations 47 Measure t S (Sep)

48 QWI Estimates: Accessions and Separations 48

49 QWI Estimates: Accessions and Separations Year-to-Year Percent Change 49

50 QWI Estimates: Accessions, Separations, and New Hires 50

51 QWI Estimates: Accessions and New Hires Year-to-Year Percent Change 51

52 QWI Estimates: Recalls 52

53 QWI Estimates: New Hires and Recalls Year-to-Year Percent Change 53

54 Details: Employment Flows- Full Quarter Accessions See a3 and FA on comprehensive index A full-quarter accession (a3) is turned on whenever an individual is full-quarter employed this quarter, but not last quarter –m=0 for quarter (t-2) and m=1 last quarter (t-1), this quarter (t) and next quarter (t+1) a3=1 means an individual was full-quarter employed at a particular employer and location (PIK-SEIN-SEINUNIT) during the current quarter for the first time FA is the count of all full-quarter accessions for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as HirAS 54 Measure t FA (HirAS)

55 Details: Employment Flows- Full-Quarter New Hires See h3 and H3 on comprehensive index A full-quarter new hire (h3) is turned on whenever an individual has a full-quarter accession, with no association with the employer during the four quarters preceding hire m=0 for four quarters (t-5 to t-2) and m=1 last quarter (t-1), this quarter (t) and next quarter (t+1) h3=1 means an individual was newly hired at a particular employer and location (PIK-SEIN-SEINUNIT) last quarter and became a full- quarter employee during the current quarter H3 is the count of all new full-quarter hires at an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as HirNS, on Industry Focus as Number of New Hires and on OnTheMap as New Hires, Stable Jobs 55 Measure t H3 (HirNS)

56 Details: Employment Flows- Full Quarter Separations See s3 and FS on comprehensive index A full-quarter separation (s3) is turned on whenever an individual has no wage record in the next quarter but was full- quarter employed in the previous quarter –m=1 for quarter (t-2), last quarter (t-1), current quarter (t) and m=0 next quarter (t+1) s3=1 means an individual was separated at a particular employer and location from a job that was full-quarter during the previous quarter (cant be full-quarter this quarter) FS is the count of all full-quarter separations for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as SepS and on OnTheMap as Separations, Stable Jobs 56 Measure t FS (SepS)

57 QWI Estimates – Full Quarter: Accessions and Separations 57

58 QWI Estimates – Full Quarter: Accessions and Separations Year-to-Year Percent Change 58

59 QWI Estimates – Full Quarter: Accessions and New Hires Year-to-Year Percent Change 59

60 QWI Estimates – Full Quarter: Accessions and New Hires Year-to-Year Percent Change 60

61 QWI Estimates – Full Quarter: Separations and Full-Quarter Separations 61

62 Details: Turnover 62 T (TurnOvrS) t FS (SepS) FA (HirAS) F (EmpS)

63 QWI Estimates: Turnover 63

64 QWI Measures: Earnings (Flow measures) MeasureDescription Z_WFA (EarnHirA )Average earnings for full-quarter accessions Z_W3 (EarnHirN)Average earnings for full-quarter new hires Z_WFS (EarnSepS)Average earnings for full-quarter separations Z_dWA (EarnHirAC)Change in earnings – Accessions Z_dWS (EarnSepC)Change in earnings - Separations 64

65 QWI Measures: Earnings (Flow measures) 65 Measure t FA (HirAS)$ H3 (HirNS)$ FS (SepS)$ Z_dWA (EarnHirAC) $(All) before $(All) after Z_dWS (EarnSepC) $(All) before $(All) after

66 Details: Earnings – Full Quarter Accession See Z_WFA on comprehensive index Earnings in quarter t are accumulated into WFA whenever an individual is full-quarter employed this quarter, but not last quarter –m=0 for quarter (t-2) and m=1 last quarter (t-1), this quarter (t) and next quarter (t+1) Z_WFA is the average monthly earnings of full quarter new hires for an employer location (SEIN- SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as EarnHirAS. 66 Measure t Z_WFA (EarnHirAS) $

67 Details: Earnings – Full Quarter New Hires See Z_WH3 on comprehensive index Earnings in quarter t are accumulated into WH3 whenever an individual whenever an individual has a full-quarter accession, with no association with the employer during the four quarters preceding hire –m=0 for four quarters (t-5 to t-2) and m=1 last quarter (t-1), this quarter (t) and next quarter (t+1) Z_WH3 is the average monthly earnings of full quarter new hires for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as EarnHirNS, on QWI Online as Avg New Hire Earnings, in Industry Focus as Average monthly earnings for new hires (and for growth), and on OnTheMap as Average Monthly Earnings, New Hires, Stable Jobs 67 Measure t Z_WH3 (EarnHirNS) $

68 Details: Earnings – Full Quarter Separations See Z_WFS on comprehensive index Earnings in quarter t are accumulated into WFS whenever an individual has positive earnings in the previous, current, and next quarter, and is a full-quarter separation in t+1 m=1 for last quarter (t-1), this quarter (t), next quarter (t+1), and m=0 for following quarter (t+2) Z_WFS is the average monthly earnings in the current quarter of full quarter separations in the next quarter for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT). Z_WFS is the earnings measure in t for full-quarter separations dated t+1. This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as EarnSepS, and on OnTheMap as Average Monthly Earnings, Separations from Stable Jobs 68 Measure t Z_WFS (EarnSepS) $

69 QWI Estimates: Average Monthly Earnings 69

70 Details: Change in Earnings – Accessions See Z_dWA on comprehensive index An accession (a1) is turned on whenever an individual has positive earnings in the current and not in the previous quarter –m=0 for last quarter (t-1) and m=1 this quarter (t) Z_dWA is the change in average monthly earnings from the previous quarter to the current quarter for an accession in the current quarter to an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT). –This measure totals earnings from all jobs for an individual in the before quarter (t-1) and the after quarter (t) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as EarnHirAC 70 Measure t Z_dWA (EarnHirAC) $ (Alll) before $ (All) after

71 Details: Change in Earnings – Separations See Z_dWS on comprehensive index A separation (s1) is turned on whenever an individual has no wage record in the next quarter but is present this quarter m=1 for current quarter (t) and m=0 next quarter (t+1) Z_dWS is the change in average monthly earnings from the current quarter to the next quarter for a separation in the current quarter from an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT). –This measure totals earnings from all jobs for an individual in the before quarter (t) and the after quarter (t+1) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as EarnSepC 71 Measure t Z_dWS (EarnSepC) $ (All) before $ (All ) after

72 QWI Estimates: Change in Total Earnings 72

73 QWI Measures: Non-employment MeasureDescription Z_NA (NEmpHirA)Average quarters of non-employment preceding an accession Z_NH (NEmpHirN)Average quarters of non-employment preceding a new hire Z_NR (NEmpHirR)Average quarters of non-employment preceding a recall Z_NS (NEmpSep)Average quarters of non-employment following a separation 73

74 Quarters of Non-Employment These measures reference the four quarters prior to a hire or following a separation Count in how many of these quarters an individual had zero reported earnings from all employers –Does not necessarily mean quarters of non- employment were consecutive The average number of quarters with zero earnings are calculated for each transition –Hire, New hire, Recall, Separation 74

75 Details: Quarters of Non-Employment MeasureDescription t Z_NA (NEmpHirA) Hires All: Average quarters of non-employment ???? Z_NH (NEmpHirN) Hires New: Average quarters of non-employment ???? Z_NR (NEmpHirR) Hires Recalls: Average quarters of non-employment ???? Z_NS (NEmpSep) Separations: Average quarters of non-employment ???? 75 Employment pattern for job transition noted with red and black boxes Question marks indicate quarters referenced for employment from any job

76 QWI Estimates: Average Quarters of Non-Employment 76

77 Firm-Based Measures: Flows, Creations, Destructions Calculated at the establishment (SEIN- SEINUNIT) level –Also calculated at establishment level for each demographic segment Use Emp (B), EmpEnd (E), and EmpS (F) employment measures as inputs Measures are aggregated across establishments –Separately aggregated by demographic segment (caution to follow) 77

78 QWI Measures: Firm-based Job Flows MeasureDescription JC (FrmJbGn)Job Creation JD (FrmJbLs)Job Destruction JF (FrmJbC)Net Job Flows FJC (FrmJbGnS)Full-quarter Job Creation FJD (FrmJbLsS)Full-quarter Job Destruction FJF (FrmJbCS)Net Full-quarter Job Flows 78

79 Measuring Dynamics at the Firm Level These measures display dynamics at the firm (or establishment) level –Job creation Establishment that grow over the quarter Establishment births –Job destruction Establishments that shrink over the quarter Establishment deaths 79

80 Job Creation vs. Hiring Declining employment does not imply no job creation –Even if an industry is declining in total employment, individual firms may be growing Job creation is balanced by job destruction Job destruction does not imply no hiring –Even if a firm is shrinking, it still may be hiring individuals Accessions are balanced by separations 80

81 Details: Firm Job Flows – Job Creations See JC on comprehensive index A job creation is only defined at the employer-location level. A job is created when an employer has greater end of period employment than beginning of period employment JC = max(E - B, 0) JC is the count of all job creations for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as FrmJbGn, on QWI Online as Job Creation, and on OnTheMap in the QWI report as Firm Job Gain 81 JC (FrmJbGn) t B (Emp) – E (EmpEnd) ++

82 Details: Firm Job Flows – Job Destructions See JD on comprehensive index A job destruction is only defined at the employer- location level. A job is destroyed when an employer has greater beginning of period employment than end of period employment JD = max(B - E, 0) JD is the count of all job destructions for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as FrmJbLs and on OnTheMap in the QWI report as Firm Job Loss 82 JD (FrmJbLs) t B (Emp) ++ E (EmpEnd) –

83 Details: Firm Job Flows – Net Job Flows See JF on comprehensive index Net flows are the difference between creations and destructions JF = JC - JD = E - B JF is the count of all net job flows for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as FrmJbC and on QWI Online as Net Job Flows 83 JF (FrmJbC) t B (Emp) +/- E (EmpEnd) +/-

84 QWI Estimates: Firm Job Flows 84

85 Details: Firm Job Flows – Full Quarter Creations See FJC on comprehensive index A full-quarter job creation is only defined at the employer-location level. A full-quarter job is created when an employer has greater full-quarter employment this quarter than last quarter –FJC = max(F t - F t-1, 0) FJC is the count of all full-quarter job creations for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as FrmJbGnS 85 FJC (FrmJbGnS) t F t-1 (EmpS t-1 ) – F t (EmpS t ) ++

86 Details: Firm Job Flows – Full Quarter Destructions See FJD on comprehensive index A full-quarter job destruction is only defined at the employer-location level. A full-quarter job is destroyed when an employer has greater full- quarter employment last quarter than this quarter –FJD = max(F t-1 - F t, 0) FJD is the count of all full-quarter job destructions for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as FrmJbLsS 86 FJD (FrmJbLsS) t F t-1 (EmpS t-1 ) ++ F t (EmpS t ) –

87 Details: Firm Job Flows – Net Full Quarter Job Flows See FJF on comprehensive index Net full-quarter job flows are the difference between full-quarter creations and destructions FJF = FJC – FJD = F t – F t-1 FJF is the count of all net full-quarter job flows for an employer location (SEIN-SEINUNIT) This variable is reported in the QWI public use files as FrmJbCS and on Industry Focus as Firm Job Change 87 FJF (FrmJbCS) t F t-1 (EmpS t-1 ) +/- F t (EmpS t ) +/-

88 QWI Estimates: Firm Job Flows, Full-Quarter 88

89 QWI Public Use Files: Basics Contents of LED Public-use Files (PUFs) –30 measures reported on full file See QWI comprehensive index for uses of measures in other LED products –Aggregations are identical to data on QWI Online Entire historical time series is recalculated in each production quarter –New/revised data inputs, updated algorithms, or stochastic imputations may change results Available from Cornell Virtual Research Data Center State partners only: –DVDs are distributed each quarter –Posted to State Only section of LEHD website 89

90 QWI Public Use Files: VRDC Organized by production quarter –Most recent release: R2012Q1 Each release contains complete time series –Drop-in replacement for earlier release States may periodically be skipped in a production quarter because of data submission or quality issues –Check earlier production releases for most recent data Data availability may lag QWI Online Help files: –QWI-cheatsheet.txt –how-to-use.html 90

91 QWI Public Use Files: File Naming qwi_ak_wia_county_naicssec_all.csv.gz Components: –State –Demographic levels wia (age/sex) rh (race/ethnicity) se (sex/education) –Region –Industry aggregation level –Ownership: all or private-only –Naming conventions undergoing review, subject to modification fa/fs files may also be available 91

92 QWI Public Use Files: Status Flags Data quality flags –start with s, followed by name of variable -2 no data available in this category for this quarter -1 data not available to compute this estimate 0 zero employment estimated or zero estimated denominator in a ratio, zero released 1 OK 5 Value suppressed because it does not meet US Census Bureau publication standards. 9 data significantly distorted, distorted value released –Suppression does not mean zero 92

93 QWI Public Use Files: Other Notes Text files, comma-separated values, with labels for classifications –Compressed using gzip or bzip2 PC-based software can be used to decompress If using on UNIX, file may be processed without decompressing (see SAS filename statements) Data can be processed using statistical software (e.g., SAS, STATA, SPSS) or database software (e.g., Access) –Excel 2007 may also be able to manipulate complete QWI files Most aggregations contain both totals and components –Be sure to set all appropriate filters to extract only the records you want 93

94 Advanced Topics: 94

95 Firm Job Flows: Be Careful about Aggregation Note that for categories like age and sex, the published net job flows for the subcategories will sum to the margin But for gross Job Creation and gross Job Destruction this is not true (Job Creation for men) + (Job Creation for women) does not equal (total Job Creation) –For example, a job could be created at a firm and filled by a woman, while another job at the same firm is destroyed, previously filled by a man MenWomenTotal Job Creation010 Job Destruction100 Net Job Flows+10 95

96 Noise Infusion (Fuzzing) Why infuse noise into data? –Reduce the amount of cell suppression while preserving confidentiality and analytic validity Properties of noise –Every data item is distorted by a minimum amount –For a given workplace, data are always distorted in the same direction, by the same percentage in every period and release of QWIs –When aggregated, the effects of the distortion cancel out for the vast majority of the estimates QWI statistics are flagged when the value is significantly distorted (Status flag 9) See infrastructure document, section 6, for more details 96

97 Identities: Overview There are a number of identities that have been defined to relate QWIs both within and across quarters –A complete list can be found in infrastructure document, section A.2.4 Identities hold at the establishment level (in restricted use data) Identities may not hold exactly in publicly released data due to a number of factors, including: –weighting –fuzzing –changes in geography or industry for individual establishments over time 97

98 Intertemporal Identity Employment at end of period t equals employment at beginning of period t+1 EmpEnd t = Emp t+1 –When this may not hold: Industry or geography changes on establishment record between quarters Weighting adjustments change every quarter Fuzz factor changes (successor-predecessor only) 98

99 Evolution of End-of-period employment Beginning and end-of-period employment are tied by accessions and separations EmpEnd t = Emp t + Hir t - Sep t –When this may not hold: This holds almost exactly in the public release files –Some minor differences may arise due to rounding or precision in the calculation –Selected measures may be suppressed on individual records 99

100 Job Flow Identity Job flows represents the net of job creation and job destruction FrmJbC t = FrmJbGn t - FrmJbLs t –When this may not hold: This holds almost exactly in the public release files –Some minor differences may arise due to rounding or precision in the calculation –Selected measures may be suppressed on individual records 100

101 Creation-Destruction Identity The difference between beginning and end- of-period employment equals the net of creation and destruction EmpEnd t = Emp t + FrmJbGn t - FrmJbLs t –When this may not hold: Alternate fuzzing is applied to firm measures, based on average fuzz factors for Emp and EmpEnd. 101

102 New Hires/Recalls Identity Accessions is the sum of new hires and recalls HirA t = HirN t + HirR t –When this may not hold: This holds almost exactly in the public release files –Some minor differences may arise due to rounding or precision in the calculation –Selected measures may be suppressed on individual records 102

103 LEHD Processing 103

104 LEHD Processing: Successor-Predecessor Adjustments to account for administrative changes to firms –mergers, divestitures, etc. Transitions may be identified through: –report on the QCEW firm level and establishment level –finding large employment flow from the individual wage records firm level only Individual job history at predecessor is concatenated with job history for same PIK at successor for purposes of calculating QWI measures 104

105 LEHD Processing: Unit-to-Worker Impute Necessary to impute establishment to a job when not available –Currently only Minnesota reports establishments on wage data Individual job histories are assembled Establishment (multiply) imputed to longitudinal job, with the following predictors: –Proximity of residence to establishment –Size of establishment Establishment history (allowing for predecessors) must be consistent with individual job history 105

106 LEHD Processing: Weighting QWI B is benchmarked against QCEW Mon1 employment Firm-level weights (within bounds) are applied to adjust employment towards Mon1 employment Secondary weights are applied to match statewide private-only employment Weights are calculated at ECF stage, applied at QWI 106

107 LEHD Processing: QCEW-QWI Differences Sub-state adjustments are not currently applied to QWI data While state employment totals should be quite close, sub-state estimates will display deviations from benchmark –County, industry employment totals, or smaller cells These differences can come from any of a number of QWI-specific processing steps Specific differences observed in the data may also result from an interaction of several sources of deviation 107

108 Causes of Differences: Measure Definition B and Mon1 do not capture exactly the same universe –An individual may count towards either one of the measures, but not towards the other Differences generally minor, but may be noticeable in some industries with particular seasonal patterns –e.g., education, agriculture 108

109 Causes of Differences: BLS Data Editing LEHD data receipts –Before 2004 LEHD received BLS edited data –Since 2004 LEHD does not receive BLS edited data (CIPSEA) BLS QCEW file may be edited/different from that which LEHD receives –Completeness –Imputed employment –Industry/geography changes Statewide totals are close (<1% off) LEHD QA will periodically note BLS QCEW data inconsistent with internal LEHD QCEW micro-data 109

110 Causes of Differences: UI Wage Data Reporting Firm may fail to report wage records –QCEW still reported or imputed Firm may report wage records and QCEW records on different account numbers –Successor/predecessor mistiming –Public sector issues PIK (SSN) miscoding prevents linking wage records to same longitudinal job 110

111 Causes of Differences: Industry Assignment Most establishments are assigned based on the reported NAICS_AUX For earlier years in the data series, the reported SIC code is probabilistically mapped to the current NAICS codes –Imputes may also be used for transitions between 1997, 2002, and 2007 NAICS LDB data are used for NAICS back-coding purposes when the file has been provided by state Variations in algorithms between LEHD and BLS may result in differences –NAICS sector 55 (management of companies) displays particular issues during SIC-NAICS transition 111

112 Causes of Differences: Geographic Coding LEHD performs own geo-coding of addresses –Generates lat-long for distance measures, allows custom geography Address data are processed along with address data from other sources Results may differ from BLS assignments –Marginal shift over county line –Significant relocation Effort currently underway to reengineer LEHD geographic assignment to improve results 112

113 Causes of Differences: Multiple Worksites (U2W) QCEW can report Mon1 by building directly from establishment (with geo/industry info) LEHD No transfer assumption a single job spell to be reported to the same establishment –Job spell – PIK-SEIN relationship that does not contain four consecutive quarters with zero earnings. A change in firm structure can make it impossible to replicate counts given constraint –Long-term differences may result from new, large establishments appearing without predecessor 113

114 Causes of Differences: Successor-Predecessor QCEW can, again, build up estimates directly from establishment –Does not matter for month1 purpose if predecessor existed LEHD must have information from previous and following quarters for range of measures –If a new firm appears, and that firm does not have a predecessor (with same employees), jobs at the new firm will not count towards primary LEHD B employment in that quarter 114

115 Overview: Summary –The QWI are developed by incorporating data from a broad variety of sources –Differences in data sources, construction, and imputation procedures may cause employment estimates that do not match other sources 115


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