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Wind energy in a changing climate Alexander Bakker KNMI ECAM 2 October 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "Wind energy in a changing climate Alexander Bakker KNMI ECAM 2 October 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 Wind energy in a changing climate Alexander Bakker KNMI bakker@knmi.nl ECAM 2 October 2009

2 Decreasing trend wind yield (turbines)

3 Contents Geostrophic wind speed as predictor Past trends (Reanalysis & NAO index)

4 Offshore wind measurements

5 Potential wind

6 Wind turbines (power curve)

7 Geostrophic wind speed ERA402.5 x 2.51958-2001 ERA Interim1.5 x 1.51989-

8 R (Windex,geostrophic wind) ERA InterimERA40

9 Windex and ERA interim geostrophic wind

10 Windex and ERA40 geostrophic wind

11 Trends geostrophic wind speed (m/s)/yr ERA InterimERA40

12 P-value trends geostrophic wind speed ERA InterimERA40

13 Temporal dependency?

14 NAO index Jones PD, Jonsson T and Wheeler D (1997) Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland. Int. J. Climatol. 17, 1433-1450. 3

15 Conclusions Trends in wind yields are not caused by climatological trends Geostrophic wind speed and NAO index are good predictors for relative wind yields in the North Sea Is there temporal dependency (autocorrelation, persistence)?

16 What causes the increasing difference?


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