Presentation on theme: "Aleksandar Bogojević Scientific Computing Laboratory Institute of Physics, Belgrade Café Scientifique British Council, Belgrade."— Presentation transcript:
Aleksandar Bogojević Scientific Computing Laboratory Institute of Physics, Belgrade Café Scientifique British Council, Belgrade February 12, Economy of Immortality
Introduction Modern research is on the brink of understanding why we live as long as we do and of creating practical ways to substantially extend the human life span. The possibility of (repeated) life extension would represent a new and unique commodity that everyone must have. Abandoning the mortality paradigm would profoundly effect every aspect of economy and of society in general. We need to understand the consequences of these changes before they are upon us.
youngadultold youngadultold youngadult generation n generation n + 1 generation n + 2 one generation is approximately 30 years Modeling the flow of generations
m2m k C m k m 2 P = 2 α m inheritancemarriage investing in ones children and old age benefits Flow of money
Simplifying assumptions All people have the same lifespan. Mates chosen with same economic standing. Uniform values of economic growth, child investment C, and pension coefficient α across the whole population. Equal partition of inheritance among siblings. Number of children k is chosen to be the maximal number that assures they have equal or better financial start-up than their parents.
Evolution of wealth and fertility Fertility data shown is for France, but is typical for many other countries
Recursive life extension life extension You can come to the fountain of youth repeatedly, however, each time you have to pay the price for this unique commodity.
youngadultold Possible life spans youngadultold youngadult natural life span one life extension immortal old two life extensions youngadult … life extension
m2m 2 E m k C ( k + 2 ) m inheritancemarriage investing in life extension and ones children New flow of money life extension
Additional assumptions Uniform price of life extension E across the whole population. Life extension is a novel commodity: everyone who can pay for life extension does so. Parents inherit same amount of money in the next generation as do their children. Given the fact that life extension is purchased or not, the number of children k is determined as before. life extension
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Evolution of individual wealth without tunneling with tunneling life extension
Price of life extension The relevant parameter is E / C the ratio of the cost of life extension to per child investment. A society can can determine E / C in two ways: (1) minimize social pressure (segregation of mortals and immortals); (2) maximize profit (as with other commodities). Look at the compatibility of these two criteria.
Tunneling into immortality A – UK, Sweden, Australia,… B – US, France, Italy, Canada, India,… C – Spain, Greece, Romania,… life extension
Profit of pharmaceutical companies life extension Profit vs. price of life extension E (for C = 2) t = 1 t = 2 t = 4
Conclusions Not surprisingly, introduction of recursive life extension will severely impact society. Contrary to naïve expectations, we find that these changes might not necessarily be bad. It becomes possible to have sustained economic growth in a society of stable size. Realistic values of growth lead to populations of stable size that do not segregate mortals and immortals and in which pharmaceutical companies can optimize profit of life extension just like any other commodity. life extension
Future directions More complex models in which is not a given constant but is itself determined by the dynamics. Look at two or more segments of society having different values of child investment. Introduction of life extension brings even more drastic changes to heterogeneous societies. Similar kind of models could in principle be used to investigate cancer cells. Tunneling would now represents normal (mortal) cell becoming cancerous (immortal). life extension