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ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CANADIAN ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR: A 2050 OUTLOOK WITH TIMES-CANADA Energy and Environment (E2G) Team GERAD Research Center Montreal,

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Presentation on theme: "ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CANADIAN ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR: A 2050 OUTLOOK WITH TIMES-CANADA Energy and Environment (E2G) Team GERAD Research Center Montreal,"— Presentation transcript:

1 ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CANADIAN ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR: A 2050 OUTLOOK WITH TIMES-CANADA Energy and Environment (E2G) Team GERAD Research Center Montreal, QC, Canada International Energy Workshop, June 21 st, 2012

2 Context and objectives Contribution of the transportation sector to final energy consumption and CO 2 emissions is more important than the world average. Geographic considerations are responsible for these trends. Different options are considered Measures to reduce transportation demand Policies to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and/or to promote the deployment of clean vehicles The aim of this paper is to compare effects of climate and energy policies on the transportation sector, more specifically: To analyze the impacts of GHG reduction targets on the deployment of clean vehicles; To assess the consequences of imposing clean vehicle penetration targets on fossil fuel consumption, electricity generation and GHG emissions.

3 The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) Combine advanced versions of MARKAL and EFOM models Used by 80 institutions in nearly 70 countries (ETSAP, IEA) Linear programming bottom-up energy models Integrated modeling of the entire energy system GHG emissions from fuel combustion and processes Prospective analysis on a long term horizon ( yrs) Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units Price-elasticities for end-use demands Partial and dynamic equilibrium on perfect energy markets Main output: Optimal technology selection Obj-function: Minimizing the net total cost of the energy system Environmental constraints (GHG emission limits)

4 In summary Technology database End-use demands Demand elasticities Crude oil price Reserve supply curves Other parameters Discount rate Time period Time slices Environmental Bounds Taxes, subsidies Sectors measures Economic Technology investments and annual activities Emission trajectories Adjusted demands for energy services Marginal prices of energy forms Imports/exports of energy and emission permits Total discounted system cost Equilibrium TIMES Techno-economic attributes

5 TIMES-Canada Base year: 2007 Horizon: 2050 (energy) Horizon: 2100 (climate) Regions: 13 provinces and territories Time slices - 4 seasons: Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter - 3 day periods: Day, Night, Peak StartMidEndLength

6 Electricity load profile : seasons

7 Electricity load profile : days Week Weekend

8 Power & Heat Cogeneration Plants Thermal, Nuclear Renewables, Biomass Power & Heat Cogeneration Plants Thermal, Nuclear Renewables, Biomass International Exports Crude oil, RPP, Biomass Gas, Coal, H2, LNG International Exports Crude oil, RPP, Biomass Gas, Coal, H2, LNG Domestic Trades -Pipelines -Transmission Domestic Trades -Pipelines -Transmission IND (8) - Tons Iron & Steel, Cement Chemicals, Copper IND (8) - Tons Iron & Steel, Cement Chemicals, Copper Demand for Energy Service End-Use Technologies Production / Conversion Technologies Primary Energy Primary Energy Final Energy Useful Energy DM 2050 Oil prices (3) Elasticities DM 2050 Oil prices (3) Elasticities DM 2100 Growth (2) Elasticities DM 2100 Growth (2) Elasticities COM (7) - PJ/m 2 Heating, Cooling Lighting, Appliances COM (7) - PJ/m 2 Heating, Cooling Lighting, Appliances RSD (20) - PJ/unit Heating, Cooling Lighting, Appliances RSD (20) - PJ/unit Heating, Cooling Lighting, Appliances TRA (16) - Pkm/Tkm Road: short/long dist. Rail, Marine, Air TRA (16) - Pkm/Tkm Road: short/long dist. Rail, Marine, Air AGR (1) - PJ IND Production Furnaces, Boilers Machinery IND Production Furnaces, Boilers Machinery COM Services Furnaces, AC, Fluorescents, Etc. COM Services Furnaces, AC, Fluorescents, Etc. RSD Dwellings Heat Pumps, Lamps Freezers, Ranges RSD Dwellings Heat Pumps, Lamps Freezers, Ranges TRA Vehicles Cars, trucks, buses Trains, Ships, Planes -Trucks TRA Vehicles Cars, trucks, buses Trains, Ships, Planes -Trucks AGR Process Refineries Hydrogen Plants Biomass Plants Solid: pellet, wood Liquid: biofuels Gaseous: biogas Biomass Plants Solid: pellet, wood Liquid: biofuels Gaseous: biogas Coke Plants Renewable Potentials Hydro, Wave, Tidal Wind, Solar, Geo Ocean Thermal & Salinity Renewable Potentials Hydro, Wave, Tidal Wind, Solar, Geo Ocean Thermal & Salinity Biomass Potentials Crops: Starch, Oilseeds Greasy residues Lignocellulosic sources Dedicated crops Waste, Biogas, Algae Biomass Potentials Crops: Starch, Oilseeds Greasy residues Lignocellulosic sources Dedicated crops Waste, Biogas, Algae Fossil Fuel Reserves Conventional & Oil sands Crude oil, Gas, Coal Fossil Fuel Reserves Conventional & Oil sands Crude oil, Gas, Coal Uranium & Lithium Reserves Uranium & Lithium Reserves Scenarios Energy policies Climate policies Scenarios Energy policies Climate policies International Imports Crude oil, RPP, Biomass Gas, Coal, H2 International Imports Crude oil, RPP, Biomass Gas, Coal, H2 GHG Emissions Combustion, Process GHG Emissions Combustion, Process CCS LNG Regasification CAC Emissions Extraction Oil, Gas, Coal Extraction Oil, Gas, Coal LNG Liquefaction LNG Imports CCS Carbon sequestration EOR, Aquifers, Afforestation Carbon sequestration EOR, Aquifers, Afforestation

9 Driver growth projections,

10 Final energy consumption, (PJ)

11 TRPSA (M Pkms - Long dist.) TRPSB (M Pkms - Short dist.) Passenger, Small cars TRPLA (M Pkms - Long dist.) TRPLB (M Pkms - Short dist) Passenger, Large cars TRPT (M Pkms) Passenger, Light trucks TRFT (M Tkms) Freight, Light trucks TRFM (M Tkms) Freight, Medium trucks TRFH (M Tkms) Freight, Heavy trucks TRPU (M Pkms) Passenger, Urban buses TRPI (M Pkms) Passenger, Intercity buses TRPC (M Pkms) Passenger, School buses TRPM (M Pkms) Passenger, Motos TRPO (M Pkms) Passenger, Off road TTPA (M Pkms) Passenger, Trains TTFR (M Tkms) Freight, Trains TAPA (PJ) Passenger, Airplanes TAFR (PJ) Freight, Airplanes TMAL (PJ) All, Ships GasolineDieselNGLsNatural gasElectricityEthanolBiosdieselMethanol Bio-dimetyl Aviation gas Jet fuelsH fuel oil Road Rail Air Marine H2-gasH2-liquid

12 TRPSA TRPSB Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE Std. GasolineDieselNGLsNatural gasEtectricityEthanolBiodieselMethanol Bio-dimetyl Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE 3.5 MPG. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Gasoline, CAFE 7.0 MPG. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE Std. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE 3.5 MPG. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Diesel, CAFE 7.0 MPG. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Natural gas liquids, Std. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Natural gas, Std. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol, Std. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol 10%. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Ethanol 18%. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Biodiesel, Std. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Methanol, Std. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, Bio Dimethyleter, Std. Passenger, Small cars, HEV, Gasoline Hybrid, Std. Passenger, Small cars, HEV, Diesel Hybrid, Std. Passenger, Small cars, Fuel Cell, H2 Gas. Passenger, Small cars, Fuel Cell, H2 Liquid. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, H2 Gas. Passenger, Small cars, ICE, H2 Liquid. H2-gasH2-liquid Fossil fuels Biofuels Hydrogen

13 TRPSA TRPSB GasolineDieselElectricity Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, Lead Acid Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, NiMH Passenger, Small cars, BEV70, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, BEV150, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, BEV200, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, BEV300, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, NiMH Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, NiMH Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, PHEV100, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, PHEV200, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, NiMH Passenger, Small cars, PHEV20, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, NiMH Passenger, Small cars, PHEV50, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, PHEV100, Li-Ion Passenger, Small cars, PHEV200, Li-Ion Electric Plug-in hybrid Gasoline Plug-in hybrid Diesel TELCBAT1, Battery (Storage) Charging station, Residential, Level 1.2 Charging station, Residential, Level 1.6 Charging station, Residential, Level 6.5 Charging station, Commercial, Level 6.5 Charging station, Commercial, Level 30 Charging station, Commercial, Level 60 Charging station, Public, Level 6.5 Charging station, Public, Level 30 Charging station, Public, Level 60 Electricity from the grid

14 Level and availability of charging stations Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 – fast charger Level KW 50 min/kWh Level KW 40 min/kWh Level KW 10 min/kWh Level KW 2.5 min/kWh Level KW 1 min/kWh

15 Example: small passenger cars Small BEV – 150 (Lithium-Ion) Capital costs 2012: 36,558 $ 2050: 12,328 $ Battery capacity: 2012: 25 kWh 2050: 13 kWh Example: Mitsubishi i-Miev Range: 150 km Battery: 16 kWh Capital cost: 33,000$

16 Example: small passenger cars (18) Technology Battery (start year) Fuel Capital cost ($/unit)Efficiency Start year2050 ICE (l/100km) ELC (km/kWh) BEV – 70 Lead (2008) NiMH (2008) Li-Ion (2010) ELC 14,730 17,314 22,834 8,749 9,849 7, BEV – 150Li-Ion (2012)ELC36,55812, BEV – 200Li-Ion (2014)ELC45,13617, BEV – 300Li-Ion (2016)ELC62,29026, PHEV – 20 NiMH (2008) Li-Ion (2010) ELC & GSL ELC & DST ELC & GSL ELC & DST 19,105 20,355 19,731 20,981 9,713 10,022 9,068 9, PHEV – 50 NiMH (2010) Li-Ion (2012) ELC & GSL ELC & DST ELC & GSL ELC & DST 36,608 37,788 38,378 39,558 18,979 19,560 17,446 18, PHEV – 100Li-Ion (2014) ELC & GSL ELC & DST 68,415 70,518 32,524 33, PHEV – 200Li-Ion (2016) ELC & GSL ELC & DST 128, ,439 63,205 65,

17 Scenarios BAU: End-use demands projected to the 2020 horizon using socio- economic drivers of the National Energy Board and then extended to 2050 using a regression approach. CLIM: GHG r eduction commitments that have been taken by provincial governments (with the federal target for the territories. EVP: Electric vehicles penetration targets for road transportation ProvinceReference yearTarget for 2020Target for 2050 Alberta20055% 14% British Colombia200733% 50% Manitoba200515% 45% New Brunswick199010% 20% Newfoundland199010% 20% Nova Scotia199010% 20% Ontario199015% 30% Prince Edward Island199010% 20% Quebec199020% 40% Saskatchewan200620% 40% Territories200517% 50% Year All provinces5%18%31%44%

18 End-use demand projections,

19 Final energy consumption, (PJ)

20 GHG emissions, (Mt CO2-eq)

21 Penetration of vehicles in the climate policy case,

22 Penetration of passenger vehicles in all cases,

23 Penetration of passenger vehicles in the climate policy case,

24 Charging stations and batteries, 2050

25 Electricity generation by type, (PJ)

26 Investment in new capacity, 2050 (GW)

27 Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) and efficiency (2008=100) for lithium-ion batteries

28 Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) for a small all- electric car with a 150 km capacity

29 Final energy consumption in the transportation sector, (PJ)

30 Conclusion Results show that a climate policy would be required to significantly reduce global GHG emissions. In this context, the use of biofuels can be seen as a transition phase before plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles become competitive (from 2030). The transportation sector contributes significantly to the GHG reduction effort imposed by the climate policy. On the long term, alternative vehicles are also part of an optimal solution from an energy security point of view to meet a large part of the additional demand for passenger and freight transportation while limiting petroleum product imports.

31 Thank you from the E2G team Postdoc fellow Camille Fertel (GCPDRF) PhD student Yuri Alcocer Master students Erik Frenette Hichem Garbouj Mathilde Marcy Yosra Neji Noushin Reisi Project leaders Jean-Philippe Waaub Olivier Bahn Richard Loulou Project Coordination Kathleen Vaillancourt Research consultants Amit Kanudia (KanORS-EMR) Maryse Labriet (ENERIS) Research project funded by the NSERC of Canada Research project funded by the MDEIE of Quebec (link with REACCESS 7th FP-EU) Partners: Resources Natural Canada, Environment Canada, Hydro-Quebec GCPDRF: Government of Canada Post-Doctoral Research Fellowships


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