Presentation on theme: "ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CANADIAN ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR: A 2050 OUTLOOK WITH TIMES-CANADA Energy and Environment (E2G) Team GERAD Research Center Montreal,"— Presentation transcript:
ELECTRIFICATION OF THE CANADIAN ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECTOR: A 2050 OUTLOOK WITH TIMES-CANADA Energy and Environment (E2G) Team GERAD Research Center Montreal, QC, Canada International Energy Workshop, June 21 st, 2012
Context and objectives Contribution of the transportation sector to final energy consumption and CO 2 emissions is more important than the world average. Geographic considerations are responsible for these trends. Different options are considered Measures to reduce transportation demand Policies to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and/or to promote the deployment of clean vehicles The aim of this paper is to compare effects of climate and energy policies on the transportation sector, more specifically: To analyze the impacts of GHG reduction targets on the deployment of clean vehicles; To assess the consequences of imposing clean vehicle penetration targets on fossil fuel consumption, electricity generation and GHG emissions.
The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) Combine advanced versions of MARKAL and EFOM models Used by 80 institutions in nearly 70 countries (ETSAP, IEA) Linear programming bottom-up energy models Integrated modeling of the entire energy system GHG emissions from fuel combustion and processes Prospective analysis on a long term horizon (50-100 yrs) Demand driven (exogenous) in physical units Price-elasticities for end-use demands Partial and dynamic equilibrium on perfect energy markets Main output: Optimal technology selection Obj-function: Minimizing the net total cost of the energy system Environmental constraints (GHG emission limits)
In summary Technology database End-use demands Demand elasticities Crude oil price Reserve supply curves Other parameters Discount rate Time period Time slices Environmental Bounds Taxes, subsidies Sectors measures Economic Technology investments and annual activities Emission trajectories Adjusted demands for energy services Marginal prices of energy forms Imports/exports of energy and emission permits Total discounted system cost Equilibrium TIMES Techno-economic attributes
TIMES-Canada Base year: 2007 Horizon: 2050 (energy) Horizon: 2100 (climate) Regions: 13 provinces and territories Time slices - 4 seasons: Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter - 3 day periods: Day, Night, Peak StartMidEndLength 12007 1 22008 20092 32010 20112 42012 20132 52014201520174 62018202020225 72023202520275 82028203020325 920332040204715 102048205020525
Scenarios BAU: End-use demands projected to the 2020 horizon using socio- economic drivers of the National Energy Board and then extended to 2050 using a regression approach. CLIM: GHG r eduction commitments that have been taken by provincial governments (with the federal target for the territories. EVP: Electric vehicles penetration targets for road transportation ProvinceReference yearTarget for 2020Target for 2050 Alberta20055% 14% British Colombia200733% 50% Manitoba200515% 45% New Brunswick199010% 20% Newfoundland199010% 20% Nova Scotia199010% 20% Ontario199015% 30% Prince Edward Island199010% 20% Quebec199020% 40% Saskatchewan200620% 40% Territories200517% 50% Year2020203020402050 All provinces5%18%31%44%
Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) and efficiency (2008=100) for lithium-ion batteries
Evolution of costs ($/ kWh) for a small all- electric car with a 150 km capacity
Final energy consumption in the transportation sector, 2007-2050 (PJ)
Conclusion Results show that a climate policy would be required to significantly reduce global GHG emissions. In this context, the use of biofuels can be seen as a transition phase before plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles become competitive (from 2030). The transportation sector contributes significantly to the GHG reduction effort imposed by the climate policy. On the long term, alternative vehicles are also part of an optimal solution from an energy security point of view to meet a large part of the additional demand for passenger and freight transportation while limiting petroleum product imports.
Thank you from the E2G team Postdoc fellow Camille Fertel (GCPDRF) PhD student Yuri Alcocer Master students Erik Frenette Hichem Garbouj Mathilde Marcy Yosra Neji Noushin Reisi Project leaders Jean-Philippe Waaub Olivier Bahn Richard Loulou Project Coordination Kathleen Vaillancourt Research consultants Amit Kanudia (KanORS-EMR) Maryse Labriet (ENERIS) Research project funded by the NSERC of Canada Research project funded by the MDEIE of Quebec (link with REACCESS 7th FP-EU) Partners: Resources Natural Canada, Environment Canada, Hydro-Quebec GCPDRF: Government of Canada Post-Doctoral Research Fellowships