Presentation on theme: "NOM-163-SEMARNAT-ENER-SCFI-2012 carbon dioxide emissions and fuel economy applicable to new light duty vehicles Rodolfo Iniestra Latino America and Caribbean."— Presentation transcript:
NOM-163-SEMARNAT-ENER-SCFI-2012 carbon dioxide emissions and fuel economy applicable to new light duty vehicles Rodolfo Iniestra Latino America and Caribbean Regional Conference for New Approaches in Cleaner and more Efficient Vehicles August 1st, 2013
NORMA OFICIAL MEXICANA NOM-163-SEMARNAT-ENER-SCFI Environment Energy Economy Finance Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Standard - Mexico Presidency
Content Motivation CO 2 Emissions and Fuel Economy Standard for Mexico Cost – benefit analysis Recommendations and lesson learned
GHG Emissions Trends from Energy Use % % 5.1% 1.1% 13.5% 40.0% PIB Emisiones energía 2.6%3.2%4.1% 2.5%2.2%2.1% 3.4%2.5%1.9% % 11.3% 2010
Fuel Consumption Trends Fuel Consumption by Vehicle Type, Source: Balance Nacional de Energía 2010)
Mexican CO 2 Emissions and Fuel Economy Standard: NOM-163-SEMARNAT-ENER-SCFI-2012 (Published in June 21, 2013)
Key characteristics The standard establishes values and parameters for calculating the emissions target of CO 2 for every manufacturer marketing new light vehicles for the period The calculation method is consistent with the American regulation as follows: – Sets weighted averages for each corporate sales based on footprint attribute (vehicle size) – Define separate targets for two categories, passenger vehicles (PV) and light trucks (CL) – Use formulas "CAFE" to define targets in CO 2 emissions and fuel efficiency equivalencies – Allows use of flexibilities: for instance use of credit generated through different mechanisms. The global target for all new light vehicles fleet in 2016 is g CO 2 /km (14.9 km/l)
Credits in NOM163 The generation and use of credits are divided: 1) credit for prior performance; 2) credits for high performance technologies; 3) AC credits; 4) credits related to technology penetration; Corporate exchange and use of credits in time (carry back and carry forward) The maximum generation of credits are those granted by CAFE credits for FFVs (0.5 km/l). For the prior performance credits we use the values and parameters of CAFE for the years 2012 and 2013
Comparison between the regulation of the United States and Mexico 10 ConceptCAFE EE.UU. MX NOM163 Emissions and fuel economy in the base year 2008: CO 2 emissions (gCO 2 /km) Fuel Efficiency (km / l) Application Period Effort over its base year 2008 (%)3026 Projected goals for the 2016 model year fleet CO 2 emissions (gCO 2 /km) Fuel Efficiency (km / l) Sales-weighted Corporate AverageYes Independent parameters for passenger cars and light trucksYes AttributeFootprint Flexibilities Generation of credits and debits for different years and exchange between corporates Yes Reduction of targets for country conditions (topography and altitude)NoYes Early credits Credits for vehicles using ethanol (Flex-Fuel vehicles)YesNo
Source: web site of the Asociación Mexicana de la Industria Automotriz, September, 2011.www.amia.com.mx Most of the capacity production of the Mexican automotive industry is focused on export, which is directed to markets with energy efficiency regulations, such as USA and members of the European Union. Mexican auto market, 2010 The five corporate with higher sales in Mexico are GM, Nissan, VW, Ford and Chrysler, which have a participation in sales of 82% in the market.
Where other countries stand… ICCT, 2012 México km/l km/l km/l 2011 Kilometers per the equivalent to 1 liter of gasoline Normalized to FDP test cycle General goal
Cost – benefit analysis
Cost estimations: Cost by vehicle category (linked to the technological implementation to increase fuel economy) Cost by manufacturer (linked to the technological implementation to increase fuel economy according to their mix of vehicles) Benefits estimation: Energy - fuel savings Environmental - avoided emissions of CO 2 and local pollutants Health impacts - avoided impacts in terms of mortality and morbidity Cost and benefits estimated (2013 – 2032) The methodology and parameters used in the cost-benefit analysis were chosen in accordance with those of EPA and NHTSA in the CAFE regulation.
Methodology approach Average cost by vehicle – technological packages from OMEGA model, developed by the USEPA Source: ICCT, 2010
Methodology approach Benefits estimation: Energy – Bottom up model (to estimate activity level under two scenarios: with and without standard) Environmental –Emission Factors (to apply them on fuel savings to estimate avoided emissions) Health impacts – Intake fraction method (dose – response rates to estimate avoided cases of mortality and morbidity)
Scenarios for cost - benefit analysis The cost-benefit analysis, in the period , considers two scenarios: (1) temporary impact scenario and (2) permanent impact scenario. (1) Scenario with temporary impact. It reports the savings generated by vehicles sold in the period taking into account its useful life. From 2017, it is assumed that the performance remains the same of the base year (2010). (2) Scenario with permanent impact. It reports the savings generated by vehicles sold in the period whereas throughout its useful life. From 2017, it is assumed that the performance remains the same from the last year regulated (2016).
Cost – benefits results … (1) Topic Temporary impactPermanent impact Energy - fuel savings (Million of barrels) Environmental Avoided emissions of CO2 (Millions of tons) Avoided emissions of NOx (tons) Avoided emissions of SO2 (tons) 30 51,050 9, ,354 88,360 Health Avoided cases of premature mortality (cardiovascular, respiratory, infant) Avoided cases of chronic bronchitis Working days lost Restricted activity days , ,333 1,091 4, ,016 2,113,056
Cost – benefits results … (2) TopicMillion pesos Energy (fuel savings)142,8391,084,971 Environmental (avoided emissions of CO2) 8,63776,794 Health (mortality and morbidity) ,818 Total benefits156,1531,188,583 Total costs39,652270,840 Benefit/cost rate Benefit/cost ratio: 3.9 – 4.4
Recommendations and lessons learned
Lessons Learned Strong work relationship and collaboration among government agencies Technically robust standard–ICCTs role has been key Dialogue / communication with industry to better understand their concerns (whether valid or not) Negotiating strategies with industrys Mexican and international reps Long processes – continuous effort and energy needed
Concerns of the industry 1.Mexicos altitude and orography 2.Emissions: new vehicles vs. used vehicles 3.Availability of ultra low sulfur fuels 4.Credits: for advanced technology, flex fuel, early credits 5.Impacts in sales: substitution for used vehicles. 6.Size of the Mexican market 7.Per capita income 8.Low friction wheels
Thank you Rodolfo Iniestra Gómez Jefe de Departamento de Pronóstico y Modelación de la Calidad del Aire Beatriz Cárdenas González Directora de Investigación sobre la Calidad del Aire Leonora Rojas Bracho Directora general de Investigación sobre la contaminación urbana y regional 23
24 Sombra (Footprint) Sombra: es una medida del área entre las llantas de los vehículos, expresada en metros cuadrados.