3.3 Technology Innovations Needed to Mitigate CO 2 Emissions More efficient technologies for energy conversion and utilisation in all end-use sectors (transportation, industry, buildings, agriculture; power generation) New or improved technologies for utilising alternative energy sources with lower or no GHG emissions (such as natural gas and renewables) Technologies for CO 2 capture and storage (for large-scale industrial processes like electric power generation and fuels production)
3.4 Technology Policies Have Reduced the Cost of GHG-Friendly Energy Systems 20000 10000 5000 1000 100 10100 100010000 100000 1982 1987 1963 1980 Windmills (USA) RD&D Commercialization USA Japan Cumulative MW installed 1981 1983 500 Photovoltaics Gas turbines (USA) US(1990)$/kW 1995 1992 200 2000 Source: Nakicenovic, 1996
3.5 Facilitating Energy Efficiency Almost all countries exhibit declining energy intensity trends for the economic sectors; most countries have some initiatives to promote energy efficiency in these sectors Technology integration, support, and financing risks are high Adoption is driven by quality and productivity increases New investments in power, industry, transport and building infrastructure can be substantially more efficient than existing stock; economic growth is powering a rapid increase in these sectors, and associated emissions. Picture: Courtesy of Emerson Process Management
3.7 Industry: Primary Energy Demand by Region Industrial energy demand has been stagnant in industrialised countries, but is growing at about 6% per year in developing countries. Source: IPCC, WGIII, 2002
3.8 Industry: Emissions Contribution Responsible for 19% of total carbon emissions (50% if total primary energy is considered) Globally, 50% of industry energy consumption made up by –Iron & steel –Chemicals –Petroleum refining –Pulp & paper –Cement –Huge variations between countries –Small industries important in many developing countries.
3.9 Industry Unique opportunities for reducing GHGs because process change with energy efficiency benefits are often driven by economic and organisational considerations. Shortage of capital is a problem in many cases, but gradual improvement in efficiency is likely as investment takes place and new plants are built. Nature of industrial decision-making implies that energy- cost savings may either be dominant or secondary in specific technical actions. Potential for large efficiency gains due to major new industrial investment expected in developing countries (70% of global investment in next 2 decades).
3.10 Industry: Energy Intensity in Pulp and Paper Industry Energy intensity (energy use per unit of value added) has been reducing in recent years in many industries, including iron and steel and pulp and paper. Source: IPCC, WGIII, 2002
3.11 Industry: Technical Options Nature of decision-making in industry demands two classes of options: –Those for which energy cost savings are the dominant decision making criteria --energy- cost-sensitive –Those for which broader criteria such as overall production cost and product quality are more important – non energy-cost-sensitive
3.12 Industry: Energy-cost-sensitive options Low- to medium-cost improvements to the energy efficiency of existing capital stock, production and use of more energy-efficient equipment, and fuel switching. Measures for existing processes: –Housekeeping, equipment maintenance, and energy accounting –Energy management systems –Motor drive system improvements –Improved steam production and management –Industrial cogeneration –Heat recovery Adoption of efficient electric motors, pumps, fans, compressors, and boilers. Fuel switching (e.g., coal or oil to natural gas, renewables)
3.13 Major process modifications, for example: –improvements to electric arc furnaces and revamping open-hearth furnaces (steel) –installing an improved aluminium smelter, improved ethylene cracking, and conversion from semi-dry to dry process or installation of pre-calcination (cement) Installation of new production capacity More efficient use of materials Industry: Non Energy-cost-sensitive Options
3.14 Source: Worrell, 2004 Electric Arc Furnace Technologies
3.15 Industry: Non CO2 Greenhouse Gases Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Industrial Processes PFC Emissions from Aluminium Production PFCs and Other Substances Used in Semiconductor Production HFC-23 Emissions from HCFC-22 Production Emissions of SF6 from the Production, Use and Decommissioning of Gas Insulated Switchgear Emissions of SF6 from Magnesium Production and Casting
3.16 Industry: Mitigation Measures Research, development, and commercial demonstration of new technologies and processes Tax incentives for energy efficiency, fuel switching, and reduction in GHG emissions Removal of market barriers Government procurement programs Emission and efficiency standards Voluntary agreements
3.17 Module 3c Buildings (Residential and Commercial Sector)
3.18 Buildings: Primary Energy Growth by Sector Buildings account for 29% of global CO2 emissions. Space heating is the dominant energy end- use. Developed countries account for the vast majority of buildings- related CO2 emissions, but the bulk of the growth in the past two decades was in developing countries.
3.19 Buildings: Technical Options Building Equipment –energy efficient space and heating (heat pumps, CHP) –efficient lighting, air conditioners, refrigerators, and motors –efficient cook stoves, household appliances, and electrical equipment –efficient building energy management and maintenance Building Thermal Integrity –improved insulation and sealing –energy-efficient windows –proper building orientation Using Solar Energy –active and passive heating and cooling; climate-sensitive design –effective use of natural light (daylighting) Picture: NREL
3.20 Buildings: Mitigation Measures Information programs –Labelling –Demonstration projects Market based programs –incentives to consumers for energy-efficient products –energy service companies –energy-efficient product development incentives for manufacturers –government or large-customer procurement for energy-efficient products –voluntary initiatives by industry Regulatory measures –mandated energy-efficiency performance standards, increasingly stringent over time –mandated appliance efficiency standards and efficiency labelling
3.21 Buildings: Potential for Reducing Emissions Projected emissions reductions (MtC) Share of projected total emissions 20102020 20102020 Developing Countries Residential125170 20%21% Commercial80115 24%26% Total205285 21%23% World715950 27%31% Note: Projected total emissions based on B2 Message marker scenario (standardized) (Nakicenovic et al., 2000).
3.23 Transport: Projected GHG Emissions by Mode Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2002
3.24 Transport: Technical Options Energy Efficiency Improvements for Vehicles –Changes in vehicle and engine design (e.g. hybrids) Alternative Fuel Sources –hydrogen or electricity from renewable power –biomass fuels, CNG, LPG, etc. –fuel cell technology Infrastructure and System Changes –traffic and fleet management systems –mass transportation systems –modal shifts Transport Demand Management –Reducing travel demand (e.g. through land use changes, telecommunications, etc.)
3.25 Transport: Mitigation Measures Market-based Instruments –increase in fuel tax –incentives for mass transport systems Economic Instruments –fiscal incentives and subsides for alternative fuels and vehicles –incentives through vehicle taxes and license fees for more efficient vehicles Regulatory Instruments –fuel economy standards –vehicle design or alternative fuel mandates
3.26 Transport: Starting Questions for Analysis Demand forecasting: how much travel or freight movement is expected? Mode choice: what mix of transport modes will be used to provide passenger and freight services? Vehicle stock analysis: what is the impact of changing technology (fuel economy, fuel type, emission controls) on fuel use and emissions? Logistics management: how can activities be reorganized to reduce transport use? Transport management: how should infrastructure and vehicle flow be managed to reduce congestion or improve efficiency? Transport planning: what investments are needed to meet growing demand and improve efficiency?
3.28 Energy Supply: Conventional The conventional energy supply system consists of the following sectors: –Oil –Gas –Coal –Nuclear materials –Electric power While the electric power sector is often the largest contributor to GHG emissions, all elements of the fuel cycle need to be considered when assessing the mitigation potential in this sector.
3.29 Energy Supply: Fuel Cycle Emissions from Oil Sector Sector/FuelSource of Cycle StageEmissionsCO2CH2CONOx Oil Sector ProductionGas Flaringxx TransportSpillsx RefiningDistillationxxxx Fractionation Spills Storage Leaks Combustion
3.30 Energy Supply: Fuel Cycle Emissions from Gas and Coal Sectors Sector/FuelSource of Cycle StageEmissionsCO2CH2CONOx Gas Sector ProductionGas Flaringx TransportPipeline Leaksx Liquefaction/ RegasificationLeaksx Coal Sector Mining Coal bed methanex Transport Cleaningxxx
3.31 Energy Supply: Fuel Cycle Emissions from Nuclear Materials and Electric Power Sectors Sector/FuelSource of Cycle StageEmissionsCO2CH2CONOx Nuclear Materials Sector Miningx Processingxxxx Electric Power Sector GenerationCombustionxxxx
3.32 Energy Supply: Renewable Energy Technologies Solar –Photovoltaics - Flat Plate –Photovoltaics - Concentrator –Solar Thermal Parabolic Trough –Solar Thermal Dish/Stirling –Solar Thermal Central Receiver –Solar Ponds Hydropower –Conventional –Pumped Storage –Micro-hydro Ocean –Tidal Energy –Thermal Energy Conversion Wind –Horizontal Axis Turbine –Vertical Axis Turbine Biomass –Direct Combustion –Gasification/Pyrolysis –Anaerobic Digestion Geothermal –Dry Steam –Flash Steam –Binary Cycle –Heat Pump –Direct Use
3.33 Energy Supply: Solar Photovoltaics Solar panels using silicon PV conversion have efficiencies in excess of 15 percent, and thin film modules are typically 10 percent. PV panels are available in sizes from a few watts to 300 watts and produce DC electricity in the range of 12 to 60 volts, and can be used for applications such as: –charging electric lanterns and laptop computers (4 - 6 watts); –packaged systems (20 - 100+ watts) for off-grid residential lighting and entertainment (radio/ cassette, TV/VCR); and –grid-connected power (hundreds of kilowatts to a megawatt or more). Current costs make solar PVs prohibitive in most situations. Can be attractive in niche applications, especially for off-grid electrification. Good prospects for further increases in efficiency and reductions in costs.
3.34 Energy Supply: Changes in Wind Electricity Generation Costs in Denmark Wind power accounts for 0.3% of global installed generation capacity. It has increased by an average of 25% annually in recent years. The cost of wind has fallen dramatically, following a classic learning curve.
3.35 Energy Supply: Biomass Modern conversion of biomass into electricity, liquid and gaseous fuels shows great promise. In addition, co-firing 10-15% biomass with coal can reduce GHG emissions In developing countries, biomass is a major source of energy services for the poor. Source: IEA
3.36 Energy Supply Sector: Mitigation Measures Pure market-based instruments –GHG and energy taxes and subsidies –full social cost pricing of energy services Strict command-and-control regulation –specifying the use of specific fuels –performance and emission standards Hybrid measures –tradable emission permits –(renewable) portfolio standards, with tradable credits Voluntary agreements and actions by industry Research, development, and demonstration activities Removal of institutional barriers
3.37 Energy Supply Sector: Technical Options Advanced conversion technologies –advanced pulverized coal combustion –fluidized bed combustion (atmospheric and pressurized) –coal gasification and combined cycle technology –combined heat and power systems –cogeneration –fuel cells/hydrogen Switching to lower carbon fossil fuels and renewable energy –hydropower –wind energy –biomass –geothermal –photovoltaics (PV) –solar thermal Power station rehabilitation Reduction of losses in transmission and distribution of fuels Improved fuel production and transport –recovery of coal mine methane –coal beneficiation and refining –improved gas and oil flaring Picture: NREL
3.38 Energy Supply: Technological and Efficiency Improvements in Power Supply Sector Large efficiency gains can be achieved by replacing the separate production of heat and power with combined heat and power (CHP) technologies.
3.39 Energy Supply: Typical Least Cost-Supply Staircase
3.41 Solid Waste: Introduction Methane (CH4) is emitted during the anaerobic decomposition of the organic content of solid waste and wastewater. There are large uncertainties in emissions estimates, due to the lack of information about the waste management practices employed in different countries, the portion of organic wastes that decompose anaerobically and the extent to which these wastes will ultimately decompose. About 20–40 Mt CH4 (110–230 Mt C), or about 10% of global CH4 emissions from human-related sources, are emitted from landfills and open dumps annually. Another 30-40 Mt CH4 (170–230 Mt C) annual emissions are from domestic and industrial wastewater disposal. It is important to remember that the materials life-cycle have both energy and non-energy related emissions.
3.42 Solid Waste: GHG Sources and Sinks associated with Materials Life-Cycle Source: U.S. EPA
3.43 Solid Waste: Technical Options Source Reduction –Recycling –Composting –Incineration (including off-set for electricity generation) Methane Recovery from Solid-waste Disposal –Solid waste disposal facilities (including off-sets for electricity generation and co- generation; gas recovery) Methane Recovery and/or Reduction from Wastewater –Wastewater treatment plants (including off-sets for electricity generation and co- generation; gas recovery) Landfill Gas Recovery. Picture: University of Tennessee
3.44 Solid Waste : Measures Regulatory standards for waste disposal and wastewater management Provision of market incentives for improved waste management and recovery of methane Voluntary program to encourage adoption of technical options
3.45 Solid Waste: Barriers to Methane Recovery Lack of awareness of relative costs and effectiveness of alternative technical options. Less experience with low-cost recently developed anaerobic processes It is less economical to recover CH4 from smaller dumps and landfills. Equipment may not be readily available, or limited infrastructure and experience for CH4 use. The existing waste disposal "system" may be an open dump or an effluent stream with no treatment, therefore no capital or operating expenses. Different groups are generally responsible for energy generation, fertilizer supply, and waste management, and CH4 recovery and use can introduce new actors into the waste disposal process, potentially disturbing the current balance of economic and political power in the community.