Presentation on theme: "Quantitative Analysis Dr. Said El Khouly Maria Bou Bakr Mohamed Allam Mohamed Ghareeb Ahmed Ibrahim Motaz Hegazy Group: Eslsca 29B."— Presentation transcript:
Quantitative Analysis Dr. Said El Khouly Maria Bou Bakr Mohamed Allam Mohamed Ghareeb Ahmed Ibrahim Motaz Hegazy Group: Eslsca 29B
Raya IT Leading Technology Solutions
Three operations: retail, distribution, and maintenance/warranty services Two product groups: Personal Mobility & IT products Trade Call Center Prospecting / Customer Acquisition Channel Development Campaign Management Serving Local & International clients Regional Presence/Client Base Algeria, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Yemen, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, Lebanon, Iraq, Nigeria, U.S.A, Canada, Europe, UK, and Australia Infrastructure solutions Business applications and solutions IT Outsourced services (Software Engineering and e-Payment) Information Technology Scope of Operations
What is Forecasting?
Forecasting Definition It is scientific process of estimating and Predict in advance. It is NOT just a guess. Why are we interested? Forecasts provide helpful information to make better decisions. Forecasting is easier and cheaper now
Forecasting Models Simple Moving Average A simple, or arithmetic, moving average that is calculated by adding the closing price of the security for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time periods Weighted Moving Average A type of moving average that assigns a higher weighting to recent price data than does the common simple moving average. This average is calculated by taking each of the closing prices over a given time period and multiplying them by its certain position in the data series Smoothing Moving Average A Smoothed Moving Average is sort of a cross between a SMA and an Exponential Moving Average, only with a longer period applied. The Smoothed Moving Average gives the recent prices an equal weighting to the historic onesExponential Moving Average Seasonal Index It indicates the changes in the behavior of the numbers.
Consolidated Income Statement for Years 2008, 2007, 2006.
Forecasting - SMA Actual Net Profit M M M SMA for 2009 is: 71 M
Forecasting - WMA Actual Net Profit WA * W M.1510,050, M.3532,900, M.5026,500,000 WMA for 2009 is: 69 M
Forecasting – Smoothing Average Actual Net Profit SF (t) M M67 M M72 M SF (t+1) = SF (t) + (A t -SF t ) Smoothing Average for 2009 is: 68 M
Comparison SMA for 2009 is: 71 M WMA for 2009 is: 69 M Smoothing Average for 2009 is: 68 M