Presentation on theme: "Television 6:1 - 1(47) Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Professor William Greene."— Presentation transcript:
Television 6:1 - 1(47) Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Professor William Greene
Television 6:1 - 2(47) Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Television
6:1 - 3(47) The Product Local: News, Sports, Documentary Regional: Sports, News National:News, Sports, Entertainment
Television 6:1 - 4(47) Delivery What Over the air – broadcast Cable Internet How Subscription Cable TV Internet TV – House of Cards Fee based - premium HBO (Game Change), Showtime, Adult entertainment Basic – Fees and advertising ESPN, MTV, AMC, Discovery, HGTV, HSN
Television 6:1 - 5(47) Agenda Broadcast TV Markets and Issues Programs Cable TV Business Models Regulation Sports Broadcasting TV Everywhere
Television 6:1 - 6(47) Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Broadcast Television
Television 6:1 - 7(47) What Do the Networks Do? ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX, CW Assemble Content Scheduling Lower transaction costs between producers/advertisers and audiences Sell bulk advertising time
Television 6:1 - 8(47) The Production Stages Production Studios Sports Composers (Matt Groenig, Julie Kavner, Marge Simpson) Distribution Networks: ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, CW Integration: (Disney/ABC), (Viacom/CBS), (GE/NBC/Comcast), (AOL-TW/WB/Viacom/UPN) (News Corp/Fox), Exhibition Local affiliates: O&O Independents (100+ markets, Spanish, etc.)
Television 6:1 - 9(47) Vertical Relationships Networks and Affiliates Networks buy time for programs from affiliates Affiliates sell advertising time – local and national Networks save transaction costs by buying advertising time for national advertisers Independent stations vs. Owned and Operated. Which is better? Vertical integration issue.
Television 6:1 - 10(47) Sources of Competition Within Industry Other networks Other content – home shopping, Discovery Is there any brand loyalty to networks? Outside the Industry Cable Internet based. (Distinction is less meaningful.) Other forms of entertainment Other sources of news/information
Television 6:1 - 11(47) Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Elements of Television Production
Television 6:1 - 12(47) Valuing a Prime Time Show Made for TV Movie: Small production Sitcom or serial (CSI), larger infrastructure How to value the product?
Television 6:1 - 13(47) Nobody Knows Valuation is unknown until the good is consumed by the final consumer Valuation is different for every consumer Past success is uninformative for future performance – e.g., the Leno primetime show Nobody knows (in advance)
Television 6:1 - 14(47) Cost Structures for Production Sunk costs All costs are sunk in advance All costs must be incurred before an informative test of acceptance is possible Do focus groups work? Fixed Costs Marginal costs of delivery are zero Pricing implies finding the reservation price How are reservation prices determined? TV show sold to a network – value of the advertising. Where does the value of the advertising come from? Music license sold to a TV station or a website. Where does the valuation come from?
Television 6:1 - 15(47) Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Explaining Why There Are So Many Reality Shows on Television
Television 6:1 - 16(47) Implications for a TV Show Environment in which it will air Infinite variety of preferences by consumers Market size and composition varies by time of day Quality is a fixed cost – endogenous: will vary by the anticipated size of the audience Costs are all sunk in advance
Television 6:1 - 17(47) Emergence of Cable: Impact on Networks ABC, CBS, NBC UPN (until 2006), WB, Fox,… more competition Many smaller cable channels Economic advantage: subscribers and advertisers Shrinking market for major networks
Television 6:1 - 18(47) Endogenous Fixed Cost of Quality Shrinking market lower expected return to investment in quality Cable channels increase their investment in quality: The Sopranos, 6 Feet Under, Sex in the City, Boardwalk Empire, Game of Thrones Reality shows cost roughly 1/3 as much as major drama: Compare CSI, sitcoms vs. Survivor The natural response to the shrinking market is to invest in lower quality, less expensive shows.
Television 6:1 - 19(47) Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Cable
Television 6:1 - 20(47) Cable Contrast to Broadcast: Old style cable operators buy and resell content. Industry Structure and Players Disney, Comcast-Universal, Viacom News Corp, Turner, Scripps Pricing model: Mixture of ads and subscription Regulation Issues Is the distinction still (or less) meaningful? (MSNBC, CNN)
Television 6:1 - 21(47) Providers (Million Subscribers) Strong local concentration (e.g., Cablevision on Long Island) (Gross numbers are misleading.)
Television 6:1 - 22(47) Broadcast vs. Cable and Internet: Two Revenue (Business) Models BroadcastCable SignalPublicPrivate RevenueAdvertisingSubscribers (some advertising) TechnologyStaticRapid change
Television 6:1 - 23(47) TiVo is a major threat to broadcasters. Time shift of programming alters the value of advertising Bypassing advertising alters the value of programming
Television 6:1 - 24(47) Tivo converts the broadcast model to the cable model One major concern of the media is the fact that advertisements in television programs can be bypassed by using a TiVo DVR. The media industry is highly dependent on sponsorship via advertisements and will lose revenue if viewers adopt TiVo-like systems in large numbers. Knowing this, some countries have taken protectionist measures especially when the media is already struggling due to poor viewing figures. The government of Singapore has banned TiVo, citing the potential adverse impact on the local media industry if TiVo usage were to increase. The government is, however, facing difficulty regulating the use of TiVo in Singapore as individuals are bringing in the sets from overseas. TiVo has created a number of ad solutions intended to reach the viewer that fast forwards through ads. This has not been an issue in Australia where the exclusive rights to TiVo are held by Hybrid Television Services, owned by the Seven Media Group and TVNZ. Seven Media Group is one of Australia's largest free-to-air broadcasters as Seven Network, and as part of the local market adaptations to TiVo prior to launch, ad-skipping was disabled. Users can still fast forward through ads.
Television 6:1 - 27(47) AEREO: Cloud DVR New York City now, 100+ cities later Retransmission to cloud based DVR Do the networks own the signal once they broadcast it? http://techcrunch.com/2012/03/12/aereo-countersues-broadcasters/
Television 6:1 - 28(47) Last Saturday was a big day for Aereo, the best buddy of cable cord-cutters and mortal enemy of the big broadcast networks. The company's founder, Chet Kanojia, was in Austin, Texas, at the big, loud, and impossibly hip venue that is the SXSW conference, to announce his company's expansion to Austin. It's the 13th on the map of cities whose residents can dump big cable in exchange for access to broadcast television for just $8 per month. Meanwhile, that morning his company was forced to yank its service away from customers in Denver, Colorado, and Salt Lake City, Utah, after a US District Court injunction against it was upheld by a federal appeals court. For better or worse, the legal roller coaster will end sometime after April 22, when the US Supreme Court takes up the question of whether it is legal for Aereo to provide its customers with Internet access to 20 hours of broadcast network television for $8 per month.
Television 6:1 - 29(47) What Business Model? Sale Price = $1.65 Billion
Television 6:1 - 30(47) YouTube advertising has evolved (Ketchup ads are not very effective on YouTube)
Television 6:1 - 36(47) Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Regulation of Television
Television 6:1 - 37(47) Regulation: Why? Cloaked in a public interest Congestion in the common resources Broadcast frequencies Technological change has made this less important Public good aspects (Howard Stern) Maintaining competition Outside guidance for technological advance: HDTV FTC regulation of advertising Industry regulation: NAB
Television 6:1 - 38(47) Federal Regulation: Fin-Syn Era Fin-Syn rules: 1971 – 1995: Networks could not own programs. Post 1995, vertical integration (Disney/ABC) has circumvented The rule has been abandoned Why would we have this rule?
Television 6:1 - 39(47) Regulation of Cable: Why? Local franchises and public utilities Telecommunications Decency Act Bono; Wardrobe malfunction, MIA hand malfunction Consumer Protection Act Rate Regulation
Television 6:1 - 40(47) Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics Sports Broadcasting
Television 6:1 - 41(47) Barriers to Entry ESPN Fox Sports, NBC Sports, CBS, Turner Barriers to Entry: Huge incumbent firms News Corp, Comcast-Universal, CBS Corp, Time Warner Economies of scale motivate joint ventures such as Olympics, NFL, March Madness
Television 6:1 - 42(47) Distinctive Features Shape the Market Time value of content – Perishability Derived demand for social capital Live production resists technological change in delivery. Live TV production Model Long term contracts produce a barrier to entry. Why do long term contracts exist?
Television 6:1 - 43(47) Entertainment and Media: Markets and Economics TV Everywhere
Television 6:1 - 45(47) TV Everywhere Ad values change as competition expands Technology change – mobile distribution (tablets, smart phones) produces competition for delivery mode. Demise of both broadcast and cable networks Major providers: YouTube, Hulu, Netflix