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CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September 20052005 International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Integrated Environmental.

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Presentation on theme: "CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September 20052005 International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Integrated Environmental."— Presentation transcript:

1 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Integrated Environmental Strategies and Co-Benefits Jack Fitzgerald, USEPA Jose Ramon T. Villarin, SJ, PhD

2 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Presentation Overview Introduction to Co-benefits Background on IES Case Studies – Manila, Beijing and Santiago Select Partner Achievements Partner Support Supporting the International Co-Benefits Community Contact Information

3 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Co-benefits: Why They Matter Basic definition: All of the positive outcomes associated with multiple, simultaneous emissions reductions. From a decision making perspective, co-benefits analysis allows energy options, health impacts, other policy goals, and GHG emissions to be linked together and evaluated. Co-benefits analysis enables sound policy making to be based on quantitative analysis. It helps prioritize options in an environment where resources are limited. Supports mitigation analysis to inform environmental programming and decision making.

4 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Low-sulfur coal Smokestack controls Catalytic converters Diesel particle traps Evaporative controls Clean fuels/renewables Energy efficiency programs Methane gas recovery Fuel switching Public transport and land use Retirement of older vehicles Efficiency standards for new vehicles/appliances Inspection and maintenance programs Geological and terrestrial sequestration Land use and land use change Control of other GHGs (CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 ) Local Global Integrated Adapted from Jason West et al (2002) How Can Co-benefits Be Achieved? Integrated measures that reduce GHG emissions and improve local air quality

5 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection IES: U.S. EPAs Integrated Environmental Strategies Program Established in 1998 as a capacity-enhancing co- benefits program. Partners local teams in developing countries with experts and tools from U.S. EPA, other IES projects, and other organizations (e.g., U.S. AID, U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory). Flexible, to address local air quality and public health needs of stakeholders in cities. Identifies and analyzes integrated (i.e., air-quality improvement and greenhouse-gas mitigation) strategies and co-benefits.

6 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection IES Goals Identify strategies that reduce GHG emissions and improve local air quality while meeting public health, economic development objectives. Provide stakeholders with quantitative estimates of global and local co-benefits of policies and technologies. Engage stakeholders to lay groundwork for implementation of cost-effective air quality management strategies. Build analytical, institutional, and human capacity for multidisciplinary analysis of GHG mitigation, health, and environmental impacts of alternative strategies. Transfer tools and methodologies for co-benefits analysis.

7 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection IES Partners Countries with IES projects:

8 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection How IES Works Prepare baseline inventory to identify sources of AQ and GHG emissions. Develop alternative, integrated scenarios of measures based on local objectives using energy/economic models. Estimate concentrations of air pollution and exposure through AQ modeling. Estimate air pollution public-health benefits. Compare costs and benefits of alternative mitigation options and business-as- usual scenarios. Present results and seek feedback from policymakers/ stakeholders, fostering support for implementation. Integrate results into planning processes. Energy Emissions Modeling Energy Emissions Modeling Projected Annual Emissions Projected Annual Emissions Air Quality Modeling Air Quality Modeling Projected Ambient Concentration Health Effects Modeling Health Effects Modeling Projected Public Health Impacts Projected Public Health Impacts Economic Valuation Modeling Projected Economic Benefits Inform Policy OUTPUTS TOOLS

9 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Integrated Environmental Strategies (Philippine Study)

10 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Outline Context and objective Framework Policy identification Methodology Results Conclusions and recommendations

11 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Context and objective Context –2003 Inventory: significant contribution of transport to AQ degradation –Transport: Fourfold increase past two decades (4.2 M vehicles) –Public health: bronchial disease on the rise Objective –Assess and quantify impact of different mitigation policies and measures (transport sector) –Air pollution and GHG mitigation –Health and economic impact

12 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Framework Mitigation policy identification Scenario development Baseline development (BAU) AQ pollutant and GHG reduction computation Health benefit calculation –Scenario minus baseline –Exposure (response function) Economic benefit computation Policy prioritization

13 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Policy identification Transport demand management Rail-based mass transit system Bikeways Motor Vehicle Inspection System (MVIS) CNG-powered buses CME for diesel-powered jeepneys Two to four-stroke tricycles Diesel traps

14 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Policy identification Combo1: all policies except railways and four- stroke conversion Combo2: all except railways Combo3: all including railways

15 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Methodology Scenario dev, example: –Policy: 4-Stroke conversion –Scenario: PM emission factor of tricycles was reduced to 1/5 of the emission factor of tricycles in the baseline scenario applied to all tricycles in all zones

16 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Methodology PM concentration calculation –Emissions inventory –Dispersion modeling Health effects estimation –Risk as function of exposure-response, excess exposure, baseline mortality/morbidity rates –Avoided health cases (relative to baseline) Economic valuation –Benefits transfer, direct cost (medical), indirect (lost work days)

17 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Methodology Annual PM concentration (ug/m3) Emissions (tons/year)

18 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Results Scenario development –Baseline travel demand (2005)

19 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Results PM level calculation (mean annual concentration in Metro Manila, BAU and mitigation scenarios)

20 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Results Health impacts

21 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Results Economic costs –Dominance of averted deaths and chronic bronchitis (similar to Chile study)

22 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Results Co-benefits – PM mitigation tracks CO2 mitigation in all policy scenarios except for 4-stroke conversion and diesel particulate traps –Minimal impact (on both PM and CO2) of CNG and CME policies –Individually, MVIS and railways have largest impact on both PM and CO2 –Best is still combination of mitigation policies

23 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Conclusion and recommendations From health and economic standpoint, three priorities: –MVIS –four-stroke conversion –Metro railway system Minimal impact of CNG, CME policies because of low target vehicle population Significant CO2 impact from MVIS and TDM, but key dual impact (PM and CO2) from MVIS and Railway policies

24 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Conclusions and recommendations Abatement cost associated with mitigation policy still needs to be incorporated Extend analysis beyond transport to include stationary or area sources of pollution Extend assessment beyond Manila to other emerging cities such as Cebu, Baguio, Davao and scale up to national level Data collection, model refinement

25 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Case Study: Beijing, China Integrated Measures –Developed from Beijing Olympic Air Quality Action Plan. –Include changing coal boilers to natural gas, improving residential lighting and A/C practices, LPG in taxis, expanding public transportation development and vehicular emission standards. Co-Benefits Analysis –Compared business as usual scenario against scenarios with measures. Projected out 30 years. –Models used: LEAP 2000 (energy), ISC (air pollution), APHEBA (health benefits)

26 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Stationary Source Fuel-Switching: Beijing, China Stationary source fuel- switching policies in the Clean Energy Consumption scenario include: changing industrial coal-fired boilers to natural gas, LPG for cooking in rural residences, and expanded natural gas power in the electrical grid. Stationary Source Fuel- switching Measures Analyzed Indicator Changing coal- fired boilers to natural gas 40% and 60% of coal-fired boilers will change to NG in 2010 and 2030 LPG for cooking in rural residences 20% and 40% of rural residents will use LPG for cooking in 2010 and 2030 Expanded natural gas power in the electrical grid NG power plants will produce 1200MW in 2010, and 2800MW in 2030

27 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Stationary Source Fuel-Switching: Beijing, China

28 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Case Study: Santiago, Chile Integrated Measures –Developed from the Chilean National Environmental Commissions Santiago Decontamination Plan. –Include changing diesel boilers to natural gas, improving energy efficiency of residential and commercial lighting, CNG in buses, and mandatory renovation of the ageing taxi cab fleet. Co-Benefits Analysis –Compared business as usual scenario against climate policy scenario with integrated measures. Projected out 20 years. –Models used: Eulerian Box Model (air pollution), APHEBA (health benefits)

29 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Energy Efficiency in Santiago, Chile Electricity Savings Measures % CO 2 Emissions Reduction from BAU Incandescent to Compact Fluorescent Lamps (CFL) 80% Efficient Reflectors for Fluorescent Lamps 44% Sodium Lamps for Public Lighting 48% By switching to more efficient technologies the Chile team realized significant reductions in all emissions (i.e., GHGs and air pollutants) from energy generation. The Chile team found that of all the measures they analyzed, energy efficiency measures were the most cost- effective during peak hours of energy consumption for GHG and air pollutant emissions.

30 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Santiago, Chile Comparison of the ranking of measures by their carbon abatement costs and their PM2.5 precursors abatement costs.

31 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Select IES Partner Achievements In-country teams have completed initial assessments in Argentina, Brazil, China, Chile, India, Mexico, the Philippines, and South Korea. Potential AQ, public health, and GHG reductions are significant. Partners in Santiago, Shanghai, and Seoul used results and the IES approach in developing AQ management plans. Beijing is using the IES approach to support their Olympics AQ planning process. Chile used results to support successful application for GEF funds to implement measures. Koreas analysis showed that 71% of cost of reducing CO 2 emissions by 10% in 2010 would be offset by health benefits from associated AQ improvements.

32 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Partner Support Air Pollution Health Benefits Assessment Model (APHEBA) users guide and training course. –Provides a resource for conducting health benefits assessments of changes in air pollution concentrations. Training course and materials on health benefits analysis. –Provides basic information and training to country experts with conducting health benefits analysis as part of integrated environmental analysis projects. Reduced form analytical tools and methodologies. –Supports analysis of air pollution and GHG mitigation co-benefits where local data for detailed analysis of air pollution public health benefits is lacking.

33 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Supporting the International Co- Benefits Community IES Web site launched Fall 2004 – features information on methodology, country profiles, final country reports and other documents, presentations and publications. Available at The IES Handbook: A Resource Guide for Air Quality Planning – The Handbook is intended to serve as a resource to support the development of co-benefits analysis projects in developing countries. Available at or by request. International version of manual for EPAs Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) software. International Training Module for developing countries interested in performing co-benefits analysis with IES methodology.

34 CGE Training Workshop on Mitigation Assessments - Seoul - September International Conference on Atmosphere Protection Contact information Jack Fitzgerald U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington, DC IES box at IES Web site at


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