1. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 1 Upgrading Life in Historical Towns – Sustainable Energy Energy Efficiency Dubrovnik October 3 - 4, 2013 International Workshop

2. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 2 Sustainable Energy and Strategic Vision of Energy Efficiency as a Source of Energy and How to Support in National Energy Efficiency Action Plans Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić zeljko.tomsic@fer.hr CROATIA University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing

3. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 3 An introductory thought…

4. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 4 Without secure reliable energy: l Economic activity is not possible Motive power for industry and agriculture IT for commerce etc. l Social development is not possible Lighting for education Refrigeration for vaccines etc. l Environmental degradation often ensues Alternatives are often local, such as biomass etc.

5. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 5 According to the UN A nation-state is energy secure to the degree that fuel and energy services are available to ensure: a) survival of the nation, b) protection of national welfare, and c) minimization of risks associated with supply and use of fuel and energy services. The five dimensions of energy security include (UN, 2007): 1. Energy supply, 2. Economic, 3. Technological, 4. Environmental, Social and cultural, 5. Military/security dimensions

6. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 6 Import dependence (of 217 countries)

7. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 7 Disparity in World Energy Consumption 75% of world population use 20% electricity

8. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 8 World Population, GDP and Energy Demand until 2030.

9. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 9 WHETHER ON EARTH HAS ENOUGH RESOURCES TO MEET THE GROWTH OF ALL NEEDS? OR WE HAVE TO CHANGE OUR HABITS!

10. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 10 World challenges and interrelations

11. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 11 How much energy for 1 kWh of electricity?

12. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 12 Sustainable Development Brundtland definition (1987) Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. This implies that secure over the long term = sustainable

13. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 13 DRIVERS for SD – ENERGY SECTOR SPECIFIC l ENERGY SECURITY l HIGH DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED FOSSIL FUELS l PRICE - AFFORDABILITY l ACCESSIBILITY l RELIABILITY l ADVERSE IMPACTS l Energy market impacts 13

14. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 14 Dimensions of Sustainable Energy Development Sustainability is about overlapping environmental, social and economic requirements and the need to bring them all into harmony. When they were first built and inhabited, all pre-industrial buildings were, by definition, sustainable and made zero use of fossil carbon in both their construction and use. The primary energy sources available for the conversion and transport of building materials were human and animal power, and the biomass of available locally grown timber. Building, heating and cooking were almost entirely fuelled by sustainably sourced biomass.

15. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 15 Energy Efficiency has one of main role in Sustainable Development

16. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 16 TODAY POLICIES ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS ONE OF MAIN PILLAR OF ENERGY STRATEGIES PRACTICALLY IN ALL COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD (DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING) High energy costs Rising (energy) costs EE Cheapest form of energy you can get Competitiveness High energy costs Rising (energy) costs EE Cheapest form of energy you can get Competitiveness

17. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 17 Influence of improved energy efficiency on other policies goals ENERGY EFFICIENCY Climate Change Mitigation Improved Security of Energy Supply Economic Development (Energy) Poverty Alleviation

18. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 18 ENERGY EFFICIENCY 3 components of energy efficiency programme 1. Economical & Financial 2. Technical 3. Human and organizational

19. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 19 How energy efficiency improvements have reduced EU energy intensity during the past 35 years: It demonstrates that by 2005, negajoules (or avoided energy consumption through savings) have become the single most important energy resource.

20. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 20 The EU is not on track to meet its target – energy efficiency European Commission: Most recent projections show that with current policies we will only achieve a 10% cut. (4 February 2011) Source: European Commission * Gross inland consumption minus non-energy uses - 20% by 2020 objective - 368 Mtoe Most recent projection - 166 Mtoe Business as usual 2007 projection Primary energy consumption*, Mtoe Projections from 2007 Projections from 2009 20% energy saving objective

21. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 21 EE policy development in Croatia The ENERGY Strategy is based on a paradigm that efficient use of energy is observed as a new source of energy («negajoules» concept); The goal of the Strategy is to reduce the energy consumption by implementing cost-effective measures of energy efficiency.

22. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 22 l One of the strategic goals defined in Energy Sector Sustainable Development Strategy is improvement of energy efficiency in every part of energy sector Why energy efficiency? – Environmental sustainability reduction of environmental impacts of energy production climate change – Economic sustainability improved industrial competitiveness due to reduced production costs improved security of energy supply by reducing dependence on imported energy, lowering risks of energy supply disruptions and price fluctuations reduced necessity for new power generation facilities – Social sustainability improved living and working conditions job creation as a spin-off effect of implementation of energy efficiency measures Energy Efficiency

23. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 23 EE policy development in Croatia Energy sector development strategy until 2020 (adopted October 2009) National EE programme 2008-2016 (adopted April 2010) First NEEAP 2008-2010 (adopted April 2010) Second NEEAP 2011-2013 (adopted February 2013)

24. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 24 Strategic vision: EE as source of energy l EE improvement in all parts of energy system is a backbone of the Strategy. l Detailed measures are defined in National EE programme and NEEAPs

25. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 25 Preparation of 2 nd NEEAP: principles and steps Qualitative (key success/failure factors) Quantitative (achieved energy savings) Evaluation of 1 st NEEAP Energy sector End-use sectors Horizontal (cross- sector) (Re)definition of sector measures Expected savings Plans of energy companies Ex-ante M&V Modelling Other impacts? Evaluation of expected results FER leader for 1. and 2. NEEAP

26. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 26 Successful measures in period 2008-2010 No. EEI measure Evaluation of implementation Achieved savings in 2010 [PJ] Status in 2nd NEEAP Households B.1 Building codes Implemented as envisaged1,52Revised R.1 Info campaigns and EE info centers network Implemented as envisagedN/ARevised R.2 Energy Efficiency Labelling of Appliances Implemented as envisagedN/ARevised E.1Individual metering and billing Partially implemented (not in the desired extent) 0,01Revised R.3Financial subventions for physical persons Partially implemented (not in the desired extent) 0,003Revised Services B.1 Building codes Implemented as envisaged0,64 Revised B.2Energy audits of boilers and air-conditioning systemsNot implemented (regulation enforced in 2011)/ Revised R.1Info camapignImplemented as envisagedN/ARevised P.1 EMS in cities and counties Implemented as envisaged0,33Continued P.2 House in order Implemented as envisaged0,21Continued C.1EMS in commercial services Not implemented as envisaged (only subventions from the Funds) 0,01Revised B.3 Certifikacija zgrada Implemented as envisagedN/AContinued P.3Green public procurementNot implemented as envisaged (some activities in 2010) 0Revised

27. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 27 Unsuccessful measures in period 2008-2010 No. EEI measure Evaluation of implementation Achieved savings in 2010 [PJ] Status in 2nd NEEAP Industrija I.1Industrial energy efficiency networkNot implemented0Revised I.2Voluntary agreements schemeNot implemented0 Abandoned and integrated in I.5 I.3Energy audits scheme Implemented but only through subventions 0,03Revidirana I.4High efficient CHPImplemented as envisaged/Continued I.5CO 2 feePartially implemented0,57Revised Promet T.1Intorduction of EU standardsPartially implemented0Abandoned T.2 Info campaign on efficient driving Not implemented0 T.3 Promotion of sustainable traffic systems Not implemented as envisaged (only subventions from the Fund) 0,01 T.4 Promotion of clean vehicles Implemented, but not sufficiently0,07

28. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 28 Achieved energy savings in 2010 National indicative target in 2016 (PJ)19,77 National intermediate indicative target in 2010 (PJ)6,53 Sector division of target Sector target (PJ) Achieved energy savings in 2010 (PJ) Estimated energy savings in 2016 (PJ) 20102016 Total (TD) From measures (BU) Total (TD) From measures (BU+MAED) Residential 2,246,724,431,5312,649,58 Services 1,253,760,331,324,503,85 Industry 1,123,361,210,604,931,99 Transport 1,985,930,460,0816,603,22 Total: 6,5919,776,433,5338,6618,64 Percentage (%)(compared to ESD reference consumption) 3%9%2,9%1,6%17,6%8,5% BU - bottom-up TD – top-down MAED model - Model for Analysis of Energy Demand

29. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 29 Visibility, public awareness … hard to measure!

30. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 30 2 nd NEEAP

31. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 31 Approach in (re)definition of measures: Synergy Energy savings (emission reduction, security of supply, international commitment) Improved standard of living (indoor quality, energy poverty) Economic recovery (employment, entrepreneurship)

32. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 32 Existing buildings: key issue in 2 nd NEEAP l National plan for renovation of residential buildings 149.38 million square meters of useful surfaces 1% renovated annually (1.5 million m 2 ) Environmental Protection and Energy Efficiency Fund l National plan for renovation of public buildings 9.58 million square metres of useful surfaces 5% renovated annually (479,000 m 2 ) HBOR and ESCO market l National plan for renovation of commercial buildings 32.80 million square meters of useful surface 3% renovated annually (0.98 million m 2 ) HBOR and ESCO market

33. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 33 2 nd NEEAP: other important areas l Energy sector Oil, gas, electricity and heat l Further strengthening of energy performance of buildings regulation l Financial aid to physical persons (thermal insulation, RES, appliances, vehicles) l Industrial energy efficiency network l Transport! Eco-driving Public transport – infrastructure development E-mobility l Obligation scheme for suppliers To be proposed?

34. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 34 Challenges in implementing NEEAPs l Further legal developments EED transposition! l Implementing capacities Capacities in competent ministry Implementing institutions l Monitoring and evaluation M&V system l Co-financing Dispersed not programmed Commercial banks l Entrepreneurship EE not recognised as business interest Underdeveloped ESCO market

35. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 35 Cost-optimal levels Cost-optimal levels in Historical Towns!?

36. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 36 For the Discussion 1. How much energy do we need? 2. How much of energy efficiency potential is still to grasp? 3. And why is energy efficiency so hard to pursue? 4. Is it more costly to invest on energy or energy efficiency? 5. What is the worrying trend? (Energy consumption, population growth, life style improvement) 6. What have we learnt from the past? 7. Energy is too cheap to be worth saving 8. Time consuming and delivered in small packages 9. Behavioural change – The more you consume the cheaper it gets – Energy efficiency has improved (for example for fridges by 75%) – Size of average unit increased & Ownership has dramatically increased

37. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 37 Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing - FER Smart City Zagreb l FER-ZG L IVING L AB : Smart City Zagreb l STRATEGIC GOALS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FER: SAFE, CLEAN AND EFFICIENT ENERGY with emphasis on: renewable energy, advanced energy networks, energy efficiency and ecology; information and communication technology to manage energy systems and their efficiency; SMART INTEGRATED TRANSPORTATION, ADAPTED TO ENVIRONMENT with emphasis on: electric and hybrid vehicles, intelligent systems for managing vehicles and traffic, communications infrastructure and services in the transportation systems;

38. Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing 38 Thank you for attention! Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing