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2 Between 1961 and 2006 ….. Average summer temp + 1.41 °C Summer precipitation – 8.8% Winter precipitation + 15.9% Sea Level in the South West has risen + 20 cm since 1920 9 out of the past 10 years have now brought serious UK flooding 10 hottest years globally on record have all occurred since 1997 Source: ClimateUK 2011

3 Where ?


5 CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACT ON FARMING Climate Change Act 2008 – UK Government required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% of 1990 levels, by 2050 Agriculture committed to 11% GHG reduction on 2008 levels, by 2020 - within the next 8 years ! Farming is one of the sectors of the economy most vulnerable to the weather and the effects of climate change Environment Agency

6 CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACT ON FARMING Greenhouse gas emissions reported within the agriculture sector: Carbon Dioxide (C02) – grid energy, fertilisers, machinery and equipment *Methane (CH4) – largely from livestock - (enteric fermentation and stored manures) *Nitrous Oxide (N20) – largely from soil management, and the use of fertilisers and manures Global Warming Potential (GWP) *GWP of CH4 = x 21 of C02, and the GWP of N2O = x 310 of C02


8 CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACT ON FARMING Key Impacts for the Cotswolds AONB are: -More frequent droughts and severe flooding -Soil erosion and depletion of organic matter -Reduction in crop yields - soil structure, nutrients and moisture balance -Excessive temperatures – heat stress for livestock -Increased levels/ new types of pests and disease -Increased business costs (overheads and materials – including fuel!)

9 CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACT Drought in the Cotswolds ! The River Leach, Sheepbridge, Nr Eastleach – 19 th March 2012

10 OTHER REASONS TO ACT ON CLIMATE CHANGE Renewable energy (fuel security) development opportunities – feed in tariff/ renewable heat incentives, capital tax allowances, agricultural grants Increased focus on assessment and delivery of resource management and business efficiency measures (including energy, soil, water, and waste) Supply chain retail requirements – ie. Supermarkets like Sainsburys are focussed on reducing their carbon emissions by 30% before 2020, and 50% before 2030 - the actual point of sale is not the main source of emissions, and they are now including suppliers in the CO2 targets Increased investor/ consumer demand for sustainable agricultural produce, and enhanced marketing opportunities

11 CLIMATE CHANGE – IMPACT ON FARMING LEAF Survey 2011 (Linking the Environment and Farming) ….has demonstrated significant cost savings for farmers, through better soil management, the use of minimum tillage and reduced pesticide use, resulting in improved wildlife numbers, and a reduction in CO2 emissions.

12 Climate Change - Business Impact Markets Logistics Process People Premises Finance Management responses Climate Change = both a challenge and opportunity


14 Business impacts Climate change is raising the risk of diseases such as Schmallenberg in the UK and northern Europe, say scientists "Temperature changes in Europe which most of us have felt to be relatively small have led to a large increase in the risk of viral midge- borne diseases". Source: Prof Mathew Baylis - BBC News 1 st March 2012

15 Why Business Support ? Farmers in the Cotswolds are generally aware of climate change and that something needs to be done, but there are gaps in knowledge and understanding of the key risks and impact on their operations. Ensuring a greater understanding of climate adaptation and mitigation is an important driver for change. They are more likely to be influenced to change their practices simply because it makes good business sense, although there are a number of engagement issues within the sector to overcome including: lack of information and prioritisation lack of trust in information source lack of time and availability difficult economic climate in which to raise capital & invest Source: Defra Farm Survey

16 UK - National Adaptation Programme Defra are currently seeking feedback from various business sectors, communities, and local government to develop the UKs first National Adaptation Programme to maintain the resilience of the UK to climate change and changing weather:The Agriculture and Forestry sectors are sensitive to climatic conditions, so changes in climate can have profound impacts on their productivity and economic viability

17 Climate Change – Business Actions

18 Mitigation Help reduce emissions & the impact of climate change by: Generating renewable energy Improving on farm efficiency ---------------------------------------------------------------- Adaptation Make your business more resilient to climate change by: Protecting soils and other key assets Improving water efficiency Considering new crops and increased levels of farm diversification


20 Carbon Accounting Identify GHG emissions and benchmark against similar farm enterprises, in order to generate early cost savings for the business, e.g. through improved use of inputs, energy efficiency and renewable energy measures. A 20% cut in energy costs can represent the same bottom line benefit as a 5% increase in sales. Energy Saving Actions Regular maintenance, and replacement/ upgrading of agricultural buildings and equipment, including improved: insulation/ ventilation, low energy task lighting and movement/ time control switches, refrigeration, smart meters, voltage optimisers, variable speed pumps, and heat exchangers etc..

21 COST SAVING ACTIONS EXAMPLE -VARIABLE SPEED MOTORS PUMPS & HEAT EXCHANGERS Variable speed motors and vacuum pumps are designed to meet the capacity required when needed, and can deliver various system type energy savings of up to 60% Heat exchangers also have various transfer applications including: For example - to pre-cool milk prior to entry to the bulk tank which can reduce energy consumption within a dairy unit again by up to 60% Reducing energy consumption, CO2 emissions and your electricity bill!

22 COST SAVING ACTIONS EXAMPLE – VOLTAGE OPTIMISATION This is an increasingly popular energy-saving technique of reducing the electricity voltage supplied to a site. Voltage optimisation works by reducing losses in electrical equipment - reducing energy consumption, Co2 emissions and electricity bills, with savings of up to 15% being realised This can be achieved via a voltage reduction transformer, or a voltage regulator/ stabiliser) - Payback is typically achieved within 18 months.

23 COST SAVING ACTIONS EXAMPLE - REFRIGERATION The proportion of electricity used by commercial and retail refrigeration equipment is significant. Around 30% of the electricity consumption in pubs and clubs Around 70% of the electricity consumption in smaller shops Around 90% of the electricity consumption in cold stores There is often a large variation in the energy consumption of refrigeration equipment, and other electric motors and pumps– For example – within all of the energy technology list categories, the most energy efficient products listed typically use half the electricity of the least efficient ! Source: Carbon Trust Energy Technology Leaflet

24 COST SAVING/ RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ACTIONS Good Nutrient and Manure Management Planning - including regular soil analysis can help make the most of your farming inputs, and minimise costs. It will also reduce nutrient leaching losses to ground water. and other software, as well as GIS precision farming can help improve accuracy and take up of nutrients (slurry, manure, fertilisers),& spays. Develop a Waste Management Plan – visit: Farms in England and Wales generate over 23,000 tonnes of waste each year in plastic packaging alone ! – set out improvements across the entire business.

25 COST SAVING/ RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ACTIONS Capital Investments – consider investments in: precision farming, soil conditioning and irrigation equipment, rainwater harvesting, water-boreholes /storage, slurry storage, increased provision of livestock shelter, more robust - better insulated and ventilated buildings. Note: Rural Development Programme for England funding visit:

26 Cut Energy Bills by £,000s per year ! Solar PV (electric generation) Solar thermal Ground source heat pump (heating) Wood-fuel (biomass) Anaerobic digestion Solar and ground source heat pump installations within the Cotswolds AONB are typically installed in 2 weeks, compared to a wind turbine which can typically take much longer - due to more complex design and project location issues such as: wind speed tests, and planning issues. (fact sheets included in presentation appendix) RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION

27 NFU Farm Energy Facts During 2012 1 in 5 NFU members will be producing clean electricity from the sun and wind By September 2012 1 in 6 farmers will have installed solar power Almost a third of all farmers and growers are involved in some form of renewable energy production and supply!

28 Typical Energy Price Variations

29 Cotswolds - Micro-generation Source: AEA Technology Consultants

30 SOLAR PV GENERATION TARIFFS Capacity (KW) Current(p/kWh) Multiple-install 4kW (new build) 21.0 16.8 4kW (retrofit) 21.0 16.8 >4-10kW 16.8 13.4 >10-50kW 15.2 12.2 >50-100kW 12.9 10.3 >100-150kW 12.9 10.3 >150-250kW 12.9 10.3 >250kW-5MW 8.9 8.9 + Export Tariff: a minimum of 3p/kWh for all electricity exported to the Grid.

31 OTHER TECHNOLOGIES Capacity (kW) Current (p/kWh) Proposed tariffs (p/kWh) from 1/10/12 AD 250 14.7 14.7 >250-500 13.7 13.7 >500-5000 9.9 9.0 Hydro 15 22.0 21.0 >15-100 19.7 19.7 >100-2000 12.1 12.1 >2000-5000 4.9 4.5 Micro-CHP 2 kW 11.0 12.5 Wind 1.5 35.9 21.0 >1.5-15 28.1 21.0 >15-100 25.4 21.0 >100-500 20.7 17.5 >500-1500 10.4 9.5 >1500-5000 4.9 4.5 Wind tariffs reduced

32 EXAMPLE (A) - TYPICAL SMALL 4KW SOLAR PV Total cost of installation £11,097.18 max (* costs reducing!) (21 panels approx and less than *£500 per panel) Annual Income from feed in generation tariff @21.00p/kWh = £709.04 Annual Income from exporting energy @3.10p/kWh = £68.03 Annual electric saving = £170.17 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total Annual Benefit = £947.25 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Payback Time = 9 years Total Profit over 25 years = £33,901.59 12.22% per year (5.60% AER)

33 EXAMPLE (B) - MEDIUM 15KW SOLAR PV Total cost of installation £35,676.52 max (* costs reducing!) (62 panels approx & less than £500 per panel) Annual Income from feed in generation tariff @15.20p/kWh = £1,964.05 Annual Income from exporting energy @3.10p/kWh = £260.37 Annual electric saving = £651.24 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total Annual Benefit = £2,875.65 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Payback Time = 9 years Total Profit over 25 years = £108,321.01 12.14% per year (5.58% AER)

34 EXAMPLE (C) - LARGE 30KW SOLAR PV Total cost of installation £62,726.81 max (100 panels approx) Annual Income from feed in generation tariff @15.20p/kWh = £3,547.96 Annual Income from exporting energy @3.10p/kWh = £470.34 Annual electric saving = £1,176.43 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total Annual Benefit = £5,194.72 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Payback Time = 9 years Total Profit over 25 years = £197,397.75 12.59% per year (5.69% AER)

35 Future Opportunities ! Short rotation willow; New and novel - crops, New fruit and vegetable varieties; A longer growing season; and Bioenergy crops etc... These activities if carefully planned, managed and located may have some potential to increase the productivity of agricultural land and forestry (assuming sufficient water/ land is available !)



38 FREE ADVICE IN THE COTSWOLDS ! JAMES LLOYD - CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISOR T: 01451 862033 E: Cotswolds Conservation Board Fosse Way Northleach Gloucestershire GL54 3JH JAMES LLOYD - CLIMATE CHANGE ADVISOR T: 01451 862033 E: Cotswolds Conservation Board Fosse Way Northleach Gloucestershire GL54 3JH

39 Appendix – Renewable Energy Information sheets

40 Solar Photovoltaics (PV) The system can be mounted as panels on the roof or ground or integrated into the roof as tiles. The quality and efficiency of the system depends on the crystalline product used in its manufacture. Typical generation might be around 500 watts per 1 metre panel. Integrated panels typically produce a slightly lower yield per area and are more expensive, but they tend to be more pleasing aesthetically. If a panel is overshadowed by an adjacent building or tree then the system will be less effective. Solar PV costs start from approx £7,000 for a 2.0KW system.

41 Solar Thermal Uses the sun to heat a low temperature liquid within a closed pipework loop. This circulates in sealed pipework within a hot water storage tank transferring heat to the water. The liquid is pumped back out to continue the cycle. Solar thermal is available as a flat plate or evacuated tube system, and domestic systems start from as little as £2,000. It does not need to be a bright sunny day for the system to perform, though the system is less effective. Solar thermal can be used as a top up to the current fossil fuel system or to complement alternative technologies, such as biomass.

42 Wind Turbines The rotor blades are connected to a turbine, which provides motion to a generator. The blades can be vertical or horizontal, and come in a range of sizes from 100 watts to 2 megawatts. The design and location of a turbine depends on a number of things, including whether there are surrounding buildings or other obstacles, available wind speed and planning permission – See Cotswolds AONB position statement. The electricity generated can be used on-site or exported to the grid. A 2.5kW turbine = costs approx £5,000 to £7,000 and a larger 6kW £18,000 to £30,000.

43 Heat Pumps Ambient heat from air, ground or water sources is collected by a pipework loop or extractor. The temperature of the collected heat is captured by heat exchangers. This then provides heat to an under-floor or radiator heating system. It works best when the system is in constant operation because the end heat output is lower than that supplied by biomass, solar or fossil fuel systems. Heat pumps also require electricity to power the heat exchangers and pumps, so they are not wholly renewable unless the electricity is sourced from renewable sources. An 8kW system costs in the region of £6,000 to £10,000. A much larger sized system of 40kW could cost £60,000.

44 Hydro-Electricity Hydro systems have been used for centuries - our historic waterwheels were typically used for milling. Nowadays, these turbines are used to generate electricity. The location of a turbine depends on the water flow, head height and any environmental restrictions in place. The installation of a hydro-turbine requires planning consent from the Environment Agency and local authority, including consultation with neighbouring landowners. The electricity generated can be used on-site or exported to the grid. The cost for a 100kW installation is likely to be within the region of £50,000 to £170,000 ex connection to the grid.

45 Biomass Biomass is a renewable, low carbon fuel that is widely available throughout the UK. Wood or other crops such as miscanthus are classified as biomass. Costs start from £4,500 for a 15KW biomass boiler. Correctly managed, biomass is a sustainable fuel that can deliver a significant reduction in net carbon emissions when compared with fossil fuels. The use of biomass fuel provides an important economic incentive to actively manage woodland which if carefully planned can also improve biodiversity. Wood supply = logs, chips, or pellets

46 Biomass - CHP Small-scale biomass Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems are an emerging technology in the UK. They are a very efficient way of producing both heat and electricity. CHP systems have potential to be highly fuel-efficient with costs around 30% lower than conventional electricity and heating. Typically 50% of fuel is converted into heat and 30% into electricity. A 12kW unit can cost upwards of £15,000, through to £45,000 for a 100 kW CHP system, excluding the costs of connection to the national grid.

47 Anaerobic Digestion Energy from waste represents a real opportunity in agriculture and food sectors. Recent cost rises in fossil fuels ensure that the economic case for anaerobic digestion has improved, making it a potential integrated waste management solution, as these are large capital investment projects. An anaerobic digester is a large vessel from which air is excluded. With mixing and warmth it provides perfect conditions for anaerobic bacteria which break down the organic matter in the absence of oxygen. Methane rich biogas is produced in the process as well as liquid slurry and compost that can be used as fertiliser and soil conditioner. Biogas can be used to fuel boilers and provide heat, or by fuelling CHP systems it can provide both heat and power.

48 Bio-fuels Transport vehicles require high-energy liquid fuel, and this can be produced from a number of conventional farm crops such as: oilseed crops produce the precursor oils for biodiesel production, whilst starch and sugar crops produce the feed- stocks for ethanol production. The Cotswold Conservation Board accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, correctness, and completeness of any of the information (including: estimates, illustrations and opinions) contained within this presentation and the appendix relating thereof either expressed or implied, and it does not contain the requisite information necessary for business planning and investment decisions. Page 48 of 48 END. March 2012


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