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DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 ENERGY HVAC Research Roadmap 1 Summary
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 Presentation Outline Purpose: Provide an overview of the HVAC Research Roadmap Roadmap Overview Brief description of the study areas High Priority Activities within study areas Approach to Roadmap Summary Overview of approaches for each study area – Upstream HVAC – Quality Installation (and to code) – Quality Maintenance – Deemed HVAC – Laboratory Testing – Market Assessment: Code Compliance 2
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 Overview of HVAC Research Roadmap Roadmap has an estimated budget of $6.5 million for ED Studies and $825k for IOU Studies – No change expected to this budget – 6 studies managed by the CPUC ED – Updated in the Roadmap Summary – 3 studies managed by the IOUs – No Changes in Roadmap Summary, Not Covered in this Presentation EM&V Plan shows that the roadmap includes PCG Coordination and 9 distinct studies – Continuing regular PCG meetings – First meeting occurred March 2011, the first PCG – Regular meetings are the 1 st Friday of the month; 9-10:30AM Pacific – High Priority ESPI Measures – Mini Splits, Quality Maintenance – These efforts fit into the study areas in the Roadmap, which are… 3
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 ED-Led Studies and Budgets 2013-2014 Study Area/Title2013-2014 Short NameTypeBudget Impact Evaluation of Commercial and proposed Residential Upstream HVAC Programs Upstream HVACImpact$1,950,000 Impact Evaluation of Residential Quality Installation Programs and proposed incentives for to code installations in the Residential sector Quality InstallationImpact$500,000 Impact Evaluation of Residential and Commercial Quality Maintenance Programs Quality MaintenanceImpact$1,500,000 Impact Evaluation of Deemed HVAC Measures Deemed HVACImpact$300,000 HVAC Laboratory TestingLab TestingImpact$1,000,000 Market Assessment: Identifying Baselines and Barriers for Existing HVAC Conditions, Building Permit and Title 24 Compliance Market Assessment: Code Compliance Market$1,250,000 ED-led TOTAL $6,500,000 4
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 High Level Overview of Measures and Programs Evaluated Upstream HVAC – Incentives to Participating Distributors to Stock High Efficiency – Savings –DEER values with assumptions on building type and vintage – Commercial – Long standing program, Majority of market participating – Residential – Pilot program for 13-14 Quality Installation (QI) – Incentives to exceed Title 24 change out requirements – Savings – Workpapers – To code – Pilot program for 13-14 Quality Maintenance (QM) – Incentives for maintenance to improve existing system efficiency – Savings – Workpapers, some DEER measures for local/3 rd party Deemed HVAC– Multiple HVAC measures in commercial, residential, and other programs, Prescriptive rebates for HVAC equipment, primarily DEER savings Lab testing and Market Assessment support evaluations of all measures; They also can inform ex ante assumptions in workpapers and DEER 5
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 High Priority Activities Based on ESPI Measures Evaluability Assessment for Mini-splits – Part of Upstream HVAC Evaluation Field Assessments for Quality Maintenance – Part of QM Evaluation, Multiple Methods under Consideration Continue Laboratory Testing from 2010-12 – Informs QM, Key to linking field measurements to savings estimates in workpapers and DEER for multiple HVAC measures 6
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 Roadmap Summary Approached Updating the Roadmap by – Updating assumptions on 2010-12 studies – Reviewed planned activities and listed potential challenges or issues – Developed a Proposed Approach to specifically overcome the challenges or issues identified that may complicate a given study – Example: – The solution proposed for this example from Upstream HVAC Evaluation follows 7 Original Roadmap ApproachChallenges and Issues Field monitoring will be done for both participant and non- participant units in the residential and commercial sectors across a variety of climate zones and building types Consider participant non-participant, 3 HVAC types, 6 key climate zones and at least 5 building types means 180 strata for sampling. Therefore even minimal samples will create costs far exceeding the budget for even simple metering of unit power. Sampling detailed performance would further limit the sample by increasing cost per point.
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 Upstream HVAC Evaluation A phone survey and followup onsite effort to verify installations and characterize installed application may be able to achieve large samples Mini-split Evaluability assessment: Include data collection to first determine baseline and applications through surveys. Several metering challenges can be outlined through literature review, with metering protocols established through a pilot/case study. Conduct a metering pilot to determine whether AMI data (SmartMeters) can be leveraged to fill all the strata needed based on comparison to direct end use meters with remote communications. – Year 1: Phone and onsite surveys to determine install rate and applications of installed units; – Year 1: Separate project: Pilot remote metering and correlation to AMI Coordinate with WB interval data study conducted by IOUs, compare AMI-based HVAC estimates to meters installed on individual HVAC units – Year 2: Either more verifications or begin monitoring starting with highest savings climate zone (1) and building type (1) combination per IOU 8
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 Quality Installation Evaluation Challenge of metering and measuring a sufficient number of non-participants to compare both QI and To Code participants against Focus on participants in the two 2013-14 programs (QI and To Code) since the budget is $500k. The larger market assessment should conduct the non- participant assessments since the budget is $1.25M. Non-participants under 2008 Title 24 would include installs from 2009 to June 2014. – Year 1: Participant and Non participant sample design with project review followed by monitoring and testing, – Year 2: Small WO or add-on for direct observations if needed 9
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 Quality Maintenance Evaluation Ex-post observations followed by debrief to program and technician. Sub-sample may include case study to estimate achieved and remaining energy savings potential. Without pre-measurement, installation rate is primary parameter measured, some UES assumptions in workpapers can be modified with measurements after measures are installed, but does not inform measure baseline without pre- measurement. Work on pre-post coordination, but not on the annual reporting timeline. This means Pre in 2014 and Post in 2015. Otherwise the program measures may need to be all installed at the same time which is not part of program design, but is needed to streamline ex post M&V. – High Priority: Continue Lab work and site visits with interim reports on findings – Year 1: Reporting on ex-post sample followed by case studies of achieved and remaining energy savings potential. – Year 2: Reporting for pre-post monitoring with direct observation… results delayed to overcome coordination challenges 10
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 Deemed HVAC Evaluation A gap exists for measures that are not addressed in QI, QM, and upstream programs. Examples include HVAC controls, VFDs for HVAC, and boilers and furnaces. Scope will depend on the magnitude of the savings as well as the uncertainty in the DEER or workpaper estimates. Field data collection should focus on obtaining parameter level data to reduce savings uncertainty. Perhaps focus on gas measures not studied in 2010-12 and not mentioned in 2013-14 (e.g. residential furnaces) given all other efforts focusing on cooling. Deemed study can identify data that needs to be collected in other efforts especially if deemed measures exist at Upstream, QI, QM, and non-participant sites – Year 1: Uncertainty analysis and focused study. Perhaps on gas measures not studied in 2010-12 and not mentioned in 2013-14 (e.g. residential furnaces) – Year 2: Data collection to be defined by year 1 uncertainty/gap analysis 11
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 HVAC Laboratory Testing Lab testing is an ongoing activity spanning multiple program cycles. Lab testing is an integral part of the overall HVAC Program impact evaluation as it provides insights into the impact of installation techniques and service actions that are not possible in a field only study. – Any testing identified in the 10-12 plans or during the 10-12 cycle that was not completed will be addressed during the 13-14 cycle. – Additional tests will be identified based on the needs of the DEER updates, non- DEER workpaper reviews and ex-post impact evaluation. – Tests will be conducted in qualified laboratories using AHRI, ASHRAE and/or ANSI standards. Two Phases: Conduct lab work not completed in 10-12 and reserve funds to test based on new field findings – Year 1: WO to test 2 large and 2 small units already at Intertek – Year 2: Set aside contingency to plan and conduct additional lab tests based on new field findings 12
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 HVAC Market Assessment: Code Compliance Multiple research questions, such as – Develop a baseline for permitting and compliance for HVAC changeouts – Characterize conditions of existing systems and awareness of market actors – Determine barriers to permitting and compliance Site surveys for non-participants as they will serve as a baseline for both QI and To Code. QM participants should be excluded. Market Actor interviews should include: HERS Raters, Code Officials (part of permit data collection), CSLB, Contractors, Distributors, CEC Code setting staff. The IOU Market Assessment may be a good gateway survey of customers to identify non-participants and then offer a follow-up onsite – Year 1: Permit rate study, market actor interviews; Await IOU customer surveys before fielding non-participants site visits – Year 2: Compliance study, same onsite procedure as QI and To Code 13
DNV GL © 2013 February 12, 2014 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER www.dnvgl.com Visit http://www.energydataweb.com/cpuc/search.aspx; select 2013-2014 program cycle and search HVAC. Public comment may be posted to the Public Document Area through February 20, 2014. Questions?http://www.energydataweb.com/cpuc/search.aspx 14 Jarred Metoyer Jarred.firstname.lastname@example.org 510-891-0446
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