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INFLATION INFLATION OR DEFLATION, TELL ME IF YOU CAN… WILL WE BE ZIMBABWE OR WILL WE BE JAPAN?

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Presentation on theme: "INFLATION INFLATION OR DEFLATION, TELL ME IF YOU CAN… WILL WE BE ZIMBABWE OR WILL WE BE JAPAN?"— Presentation transcript:

1 INFLATION INFLATION OR DEFLATION, TELL ME IF YOU CAN… WILL WE BE ZIMBABWE OR WILL WE BE JAPAN?

2 INFLATION IS A GENERAL INCREASE IN PRICES OVER TIME, OR A GENERAL DECREASE IN THE VALUE OF MONEY I JUST BOUGHT FOUR TIRES FOR ONLY $400 I REMEMBER WHEN $400 BOUGHT AN ENTIRE CAR

3 THE MOST COMMON WAY TO MEASURE INFLATION IS WITH THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) THE CPI TAKES A REPRESENTATIVE SHOPPING BASKET OF COMMONLY PURCHASED GOODS AND SERVICES AND TRACKS HOW THE PRICE OF THAT BASKET OF THINGS CHANGES OVER TIME.

4 IF, IN 1920 THIS BASKET COST $20.00 TO FILL AND IN 2012 IT COST $ TO FILL WITH THE SAME ITEMS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX THEN THE PRICE LEVEL IN 2012 IS TEN TIMES WHAT IT WAS IN 1920

5 CHANGES IN THE PRIORITIES OF CONSUMERS CHANGES IN TECHNOLOGY OF COURSE, ECONOMISTS HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOR

6 THE CPI DOUBLED FROM 1985 TO 2009, SO ON AVERAGE THINGS COST TWICE AS MUCH IF AN APPLE COST $.50 IN 1985 ODDS ARE IT COST ABOUT $1.00 IN 2009

7 A DOUBLING OF PRICES IN 24 YEARS SOUNDS LIKE A LOT OF INFLATION BUT IN FACT IT AVERAGES OUT TO ONLY ABOUT 3% PER YEAR. THE RULE OF 72 SAYS THAT WITH INFLATION OF 3% PER YEAR, PRICES WILL DOUBLE IN ABOUT 72/3 = 24 YEARS.

8 WHAT CAUSES INFLATION?

9 WHAT IS MONEY? ANYTHING YOU CAN BUY STUFF WITH CASH CHECKBOOK MONEY CREDIT LOANS

10 WHY DID HOUSING PRICES RISE SO RAPIDLY IN THE EARLY 2000 S ? LOWER INTEREST RATES ALLOWED PEOPLE TO BORROW MORE AND BID UP PRICES

11 RATIONING, PRICE CONTROLS AND PATRIOTISM PENT UP DEMAND WAS RELEASED AFTER THE WAR HIGH LEVELS OF INFLATION IN POST WORLD WAR II AMERICA

12 LBJ CREATES THE GREAT SOCIETY LBJ EXPANDS THE VIETNAM WAR DRAMATIC INCREASES IN GOVERNMENT SPENDING CAN CAUSE INFLATION THE PRICE INDEX IN THE LATE 1960s RAPIDLY ACCELERATED FROM THE SPENDING

13 THE O.P.E.C. OIL EMBARGO IN THE FALL OF 1973 SPURRED AN 11% RATE OF INFLATION IN 1974 INFLATION CAN ALSO BE THE RESULT OF A SUPPLY SHOCK

14 SEVERE DROUGHT IN 2012 AND THE IMPACT ON CORN PRICES HALF THE CORN CROP LOST U.S. PRODUCES 40% OF THE WORLDS CORN GLOBAL FOOD SHORTAGES CATTLE FEED PRICES UP MEAT AND DAIRY PRICES UP ETHANOL PLANTS IDLE GAS PRICES SPIKE HIGHER DELIVERY COSTS THUS RETAIL PRICES AIRLINE TICKET PRICES UP TOURISM REVENUE DOWN HIGHER HOUSEHOLD WATER PRICES AS MORE IS DIVERTED FROM CIVIC USE

15 HAVE YOU EVER HEARD SOMETHING LIKE THIS? INFLATION IS PARTICULARLY MADDENING BECAUSE PEOPLE SUFFER FROM MONEY ILLUSION $3.00 FOR A GALLON OF MILK!!!? I REMEMBER WHEN IT WAS $.72 A GALLON

16 BASED ON OUR PREVIOUS COMPARISON, IF WE ADJUST FOR INFLATION, THAT $.72 GALLON OF MILK IN 1920 SHOULD COST $7.20 IN TODAYS DOLLARS. THE OLD MAN HAS COMPARED THE NOMINAL PRICES OF MILK THE REAL PRICE OF MILK HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN

17 IF MY WAGE WAS $.75/HR IN 1920 IF MY WAGE IS $15.00/HR IN 2012 IT ALSO TAKES FEWER HOURS OF LABOR TO BUY THINGS THAN IN THE PAST ONE HOUR OF LABOR TO BUY MILK12 MINUTES OF LABOR TO BUY MILK

18 INFLATION ERODES THE GAINS FROM SAVINGS INFLATION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT PROFIT INFLATION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO COMPARE MONEY TODAY WITH MONEY TOMORROW

19 SAVERS AND LENDERS ARE REWARDED WITH A RATE OF INTEREST FOR THEIR RISK = 2 NOMINAL ANNUAL RATE OF RETURN OFFERED BY THE BANK ANNUAL RATE OF INFLATION REAL RATE OF RETURN ON INVESTMENT THE GAINS WILL BE LESS THAN YOU EXPECTED

20 BUSINESSES WILL INVEST IN NEW CAPITAL OR LABOR IF THEY BELIEVE THE REVENUE POTENTIAL IS GREATER THAN THE COST

21 THE PROBLEM IS IF YOU DONT KNOW WHAT THINGS WILL COST, ITS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE REVENUES.

22 LARGE AMOUNTS OF INFLATION CAN CAUSE SERIOUS DAMAGE TO ENTIRE ECONOMIES

23 PRINTED CURRENCY TO PURCHASE FOREIGN RESERVES AND PAY OFF ITS DEBTS TO THE IMF PRINTED MORE CURRENCY TO PROVIDE 900% PAY RAISES TO POLICE AND ARMY PERSONNEL PRINTED MORE CURRENCY TO PURCHASE OXEN AND PLOWS FOR THE RURAL FARMERS SHOPS CAN ONLY CASH CHECKS IF THE CUSTOMER WRITES IT FOR TWICE AS MUCH, THE VALUE WILL BE HALVED BY THE TIME IT CLEARS ZIMBABWEAN GOVERNMENT GOES ON A SPENDING SPREE

24 DEFLATION CONSUMERS LOSE CONFIDENCE AND STOP SPENDING PRICES FALL WAGES FALL AS A RESULT OF LESS BUSINESS INCOME CONSUMER DEBTS INCREASE AND EXISTING OBLIGATIONS BECOME HARDER TO MEET PEOPLE CUTBACK AND SAVE MAKING MATTERS WORSE JAPAN NOT ENOUGH MONEY IN THE ECONOMY CAN BE EQUALLY DEVASTATING

25 THE NATIONS EXTRAVAGANT LIVING IN THE 1980S LED TO THE BURSTING OF AN ASSET BUBBLE THE GOVERNMENT INCREASED INTEREST RATES TO CONTROL PRICES JAPANS AGING POPULATION REJECTED EXCESS AND REDUCED SPENDING COMPETITION FROM OVERSEAS FORCED JAPANESE COMPANIES TO REDUCE PRICES INTEREST RATES HAVE FALLEN BUT THE GOVERNMENT REFUSES TO INFLATE THE CURRENCY OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE ELDERLY PRICES AND WAGES REMAIN DEPRESSED TWENTY YEARS LATER JAPANS LOST DECADES

26 BAILING OUT BANKS AND INDUSTRIES, AND BUYING BONDS EXTENDING TAX CUTS AND EXPANDING WELFARE IN RESPONSE TO THE GREAT RECESSION, OUR GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN EXTRAORDINARY MEASURES

27 UNEMPLOYMENT IS STILL HIGH CONSUMER AND BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IS LOW YET THE U.S. ECONOMY HASNT REBOUNDED WITH ANY ENTHUSIASM

28 WILL THE U.S. BE ZIMBABWE OR JAPAN? WILL OUR OLD SPENDING WAYS RETURN AND ALL OF THE MONEY GENERATED AS FISCAL AND MONETARY RESPONSES TO THE CRISIS FLOOD THE ECONOMY? OR WILL THE DEPRESSION IN THE HOUSING MARKET AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PROSPECTS FOR THE U.S. PLACE THE NATION IN A RUT?


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