20% Electrical Power from Wind by 2030 20% is feasible Challenges Transmission Load balancing Environmental concerns: such as siting and wildlife Reduction of capital costs, including improved turbine performance
Challenge: Transmission Design life for wind plants is a few decades Transmission infrastructure may last for a century Connects sources with loads Major national investment Climate is changing What if the wind resource moves?
Challenge: Load Balancing Accurate forecasting is needed for wind ramp events Minutes to a few hours for adaptive operations Day-ahead for planning Accurate on the local scale (and in complex terrain)
Challenge: Reduction of Cost Premature mechanical failures Inadequate characterization of shear and turbulence in inflow contributes to design challenges Under-production of electricity by wind plants (siting issue) Wake-turbine interaction Errors in wind resource assessment Ludeca, Inc., cited by Butterfield at DOE Workshop on Research Needs for Wind Resource Characterization
Meeting the Challenges Data Gaps Currently sparse data in many areas of wind resource Data that exist are often at the surface Information needed at turbine heights Not all data that could be useful are readily accessible Outmoded storage of valuable historical data Proprietary issues with some data New kinds of measurements are needed Knowledge Gaps
DOE Workshop on Research Needs for Wind Resource Characterization January 2008 Jointly sponsored by DOEs Office of Science (BER) and Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Convened to identify research needs to support development of wind energy More than 100 participants from national laboratories, academia, and industry
Research Needs for Wind Resource Characterization Discussions Organized by Scale Turbine Dynamics Micrositing and Array Effects Mesoscale Processes Climate Effects Cross-cutting Themes Need for data to validate and improve models Need for model improvement across the range of scales
Research Needs: Turbine Dynamics Accurate Models for Isolated Turbine Inflow Shear (e.g., Low-level jets) Turbulence details Models for Wake-Turbine Interaction Solvers to span DNS/LES/DES/RANS hierarchy Novel measurements for inflow and blade and wake flow Characterization of Extreme and Anomalous Inflow Events Improved databases from representative locales Improved ability to model in arbitrary environments (Kelley, et al. 2004: NREL TP-500-34593)
Research Needs: Micrositing and Array Effects Development of Improved Wake Models Better performance for >4 rows of turbines Advancement of ABL Research and Development Detailed observations from 50–200 m AGL Improved understanding and model treatment in this layer Development of new networks to provide reference data Near substantial wind resources Observational requirements for atmosphere–turbine interaction more demanding than current networks can satisfy. Horse Hollow Wind Center, Texas
Research Needs: Mesoscale Processes Fundamental Improvement in Understanding of Mesoscale and Local Flows Low-level jets Stable boundary layers Surface roughness effects (canopies, complex terrain) Surface–atmosphere energy exchange Deployment of New Instruments and Observational Strategies Integrated strategies including remote sensing Improved techniques for model– data comparison Multi-season and multi-location validation Simulated TKE over the Salt Lake Valley [Fast, 2002]
Research Needs: Mesoscale Processes (ctd) Development of Wind Forecasting Technologies for Siting, Adaptive Operations Data assimilation with rapid updating Quantification of uncertainty for operations Better linking of turbine-scale (CFD, LES) with meso- and synoptic scale simulations Sharp and Mass, BAMS, 2002. Columbia Gorge Winds ~140 m AGL.
Research Needs: Climate Effects Quantify and Understand Historic Trends and Variability of Wind Resources Quantification of current wind speed and energy climates Determination of cause of historical trends Improve Predictions of Wind Resource Mean and Variability Scale reconciliation (downscaling) Development of long-term data sets for validation Interactions between Wind Plants and Local/Regional/Global Climates
Recap: Representative Data Needs New Kinds of Data Turbine inflow; blade and wake flow New instruments and observational strategies Domain coverage for assimilation Development of subgrid-scale parameterizations Mix of Current and New Data Validation and improvement of models at all scales Detailed observations 50-100 m AGL Assimilation data for rapid updating of forecasts Quantification of current wind speed and energy climates Long-term data sets for validation of climate downscaling
Utility of Current Networks (Examples) http://www.profiler.noaa.gov/npn/npnSiteMap.jsp http://www.mesonet.org/images/siteIDs.gif
Value of NoN to Wind Energy Incentives for Metadata Filling Gaps and Avoiding Redundancies Consistent Data Collection and Archives IP Rights and Data Ownership Leveraging of Multiple Organizational Resources (From Ch. 7, Observing the Weather and Climate from the Ground Up)
Time Scales Operational Time Scale NOW Not well-matched (currently) to NoN development times Research Time Scale 3–20 years A NoN would increasingly enhance productivity Infrastructure Time Scale 5 years to decades Expensive decisions in process But…interactions with research and other information will be iterative
My View from within DOE Laboratory System DOE Role Primary oversight of national energy enterprise Research to support energy needs and response to consequences Recent workshops and reports on renewables attest Emphasis on Partnerships Industry Academia Other federal agencies Emphasis for national laboratories Home of major research resources Large-scale, mission-driven, integrated research programs
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