1. Climate change adaptation: Land-based primary industry Robyn Dynes, Jeremy Bryant, Paul Newton, Val Snow, Mark Lieffering (AgRresearch) Hamish Brown, Derek Wilson (Plant & Food) Tim Payn & Peter Beets (Scion)

2. Land-based industries Export earnings $25b Employment 156 000 people in Ag, forestry & Fishing 75 000 in food & beverage manufacture ? food exports to world NZ feeds 17 million people [Source: INFOS series http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/infos/ AgResearch analysis. http://www.stats.govt.nz/analytical-reports/labour-market-statistics-2008.htm Food export: AgResearch analysis from: MAF SONZAF (2008), ibid year to 31 March 2008

3. Land-based primary industry = $25b [Source: INFOS series http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/infos/ AgResearch analysis)

4. Our competitive advantage Temperate growing conditions relatively free of pests and diseases efficient production systems flexible and innovative producers farmers are consistently adapting Adverse weather events Commodity prices Labour shortage

5. 1990 2001 2008

6. Planted Forests – climate change impacts, mitigation and adaptation productivity Impacts: Productivity, weeds, pests and diseases, fire, wind Mitigation: Carbon Forests Energy Forests Lower GHG footprint Adaptation: Breeding strategies Siting and silviculture New technologies

7. Focus on fungal diseases Cyclaneusma and Dothistroma Needle cast fungi Prefers warm humid conditions Lower needle mass = slower growth Sites with Cyclaneusma average 20% below maximum productivity Dothi can be treated (copper oxychloride) –Up to 200,000ha sprayed annually No treatment for Cyclaneusma Adaptation responses Spraying Breed tolerant genotypes Plant different species Move the forests

8. Possible impact of scenarios Scenarios suggest different impacts on the forests Regional differences are apparent

9. Adaptation responses for fungal diseases Breed resistant genotypes Likely only to offset 25% of fungal impact Slow process Change species Other species do not get infected Only good if productivity as high as for current species Move the forests Focus on warmer sites where rainfall remains @ today's levels Land price and infrastructure issues More chemicals Only works for dothistroma Added costs, lower profitability

10. Adaptation Strategies for Planted Forests Improved understanding of climate effects on forest processes In depth scenario analysis to drive development of adaptation strategies National approach to development of adaptation strategies A portfolio of approaches will be needed and will include: New genotypes, new forest systems, establishment of forests on different sites

11. Broad acre cropping – the arable sector Grain Wheat, Barley, Oats, Maize, Peas Small seeds Grass, Clover, Vegetable, Forage Vegetable Potato, Sweet corn, Onions, Squash, Brassica Forages Cereal, Annual ryegrass, Brassica, Maize Pastoral Phase Grass/clover pastures

12. Climate change – the impact on cropping Increased production potential Doubling CO 2 will increase growth 30% Decreased duration Crops develop faster in higher temperature Crop growing areas shift Increased nutrient demand More N, P, K and S needed to exploit increased production potential

13. Potential production (fully irrigated) High carbon Rapidly decarbonising Current

14. Water !!! East coast Hotter, windier, less rain, more variability Increased water demand in irrigated crops Decreased yield in dryland crops Greater chance of crop failure (multiple years) West coast More rain (on average), more variable (???)

15. Water use and production CO 2 + ET - Rain - Irrig CO 2 + ET - Rain - Fertiliser

16. Adaptation Irrigated Increased crop demand More efficient irrigation systems More efficient crop species Irrigation schemes Dryland Less rainfall Drought avoidance techniques More resilient crops Financial buffers Ensure nutrient supply Exploit higher yield potential Longer duration crops Opportunities for multiple crops per year Wider variety of suitable crops in areas getting dryer with adequate water

17. Fruit Crop Impacts & Adaptations Poor flowering from inadequate winter chilling New varieties with lower chill requirements Increased vegetative vigour Pruning strategies, dwarfing root stock, chemical flowering Fruit damage from extreme events (eg hail storms, sunburn) Longer growing season giving higher quality and yield Southward movement of production

18. Pastoral sector adaptation – lambs tailed/marked per ewe put to ram [Source: sheep numbers and lamb numbers spreadsheets at http://www.maf.govt.nz/statistics/pastoral/livestock-numbers/, AgResearch analysis. Years are to 30 June] http://www.maf.govt.nz/statistics/pastoral/livestock-numbers/ Adaptive strategies: o grazing systems o pasture quality o Nitrogen o ultrasonic pregnancy scanning o Hogget mating. o Improved ewe prolificacy. (Photo: AgResearch)

19. Pastoral farming – case study Dairy Farm

20. High/low carbon vs case study Dairy Farm Temperature o CRainfall change (%) 2030208020302080 Low carbon 0.51.0+6% w+8%w Our scenario.72.1+10+22 High carbon.752.5+4%w+14%w

21. Manawatu dairy farms Clay & sandy soils 2030 2080

22. Palmerston North Manawatu River Coastline Sandy soils Clay soils 15 km Tararua Ranges Soil map of part of the Manawatu Source: http://gisportal.landcareresearch.co.nz

23. Pasture production - increases in Manawatu EcoMod Annual production Tonnes dry matter 2000 10.7 2030 12.0 2080 12.4 2000 9.4 2030 10.6 2080 11.5

24. change pasture composition invasion C4 grasses Pasture quality declines

25. Pastoral farming – case study Dairy Farm Manawatu 128 hectares calve mid to late July 260 days in milk 340 kg milksolids/cow Conservation of hay and silage buy-in maize silage no nitrogen fertiliser

26. Cows produce less milk despite growing more grass Less energy = less milk

27. Production and profitability decline Soil TypeClaySand YearYr 2030Yr 2080Yr 2030Yr 2080 Milk solids (kg/ha) -17-64-11-53 Milk solids (kg/cow) -9-35-7-33 Profitability ($/ha) -90-337-58-275

28. Adaptation- the opportunities more grass lower quality = cows must be allowed to eat more = high risk further decline quality Target = matching pasture cover

29. Adaptation- the opportunities Adaptation

30. Adaptation captures the benefits-more milk Earlier calving date = more milk in July/Aug Higher stocking rates = more milk overall change with time Adaptation strategies

31. Adaptation – the bottom line More cows Cows eat more Cows milk for longer

33. Adaptation – Land-based industries unknown: weeds, pests, diseases systems complexity unintended consequences community & regulator impacts Adverse events –high cost to business & community storms flooding fire

34. Adaptation: Land-based industries adaptation = incremental change = business as usual enterprise resilience will depend on manager responses Perceived risk Tools and strategies to respond tools, technology and knowledge available in many areas More tools required Higher technical skills required for success adopting these tools within complex farming systems farming within multiple pressures is the real challenge. unintended consequences GHG production Impact of regulation Community expectations Current strategies will only in-part meet tomorrows issues

35. Thank you

36. Acknowledgements Barbara Hock, Lucy Manning – Geospatial analysis Lindsay Bulman – background information on fungal diseases FRST for support through the Mitigation of Climate Change and the Role of Forests Programme CO4X04706

38. Simulations Pasture production and quality simulated using EcoMod Dairy farm system impacts and adaptation explored using Farmax Dairy Pro