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Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation: Sustaining Rice Production in Bangladesh Motaleb Hossain Sarker Director, Ecology Division, CEGIS.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation: Sustaining Rice Production in Bangladesh Motaleb Hossain Sarker Director, Ecology Division, CEGIS."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation: Sustaining Rice Production in Bangladesh Motaleb Hossain Sarker Director, Ecology Division, CEGIS (On behalf of CEGIS Team) Motaleb Hossain Sarker Director, Ecology Division, CEGIS (On behalf of CEGIS Team) Presentation on WP1-climate change scenarios, water availability and crop modeling Presentation on WP1-climate change scenarios, water availability and crop modeling Under the study project of

2 NameDesignation and organization Dr. J C BiswasPrincipal Agronomist, BRRI M ManiruzzamanSenior Irrigation Engineer, BRRI F I M Golam Wahed SarkerSenior Agril. Economist, BRRI Dr. M Ashiq Iqbal KhanSenior Pathologist, BRRI Dr. Nagothu Udaya SekharDirector (Asia Projects), Bioforsk Dr. Trond RafossSenior Researcher, Bioforsk Dr. Attila NemesSenior Researcher, Bioforsk Dr. Stefanos XenariosSenior Researcher, Bioforsk Dr. Johannes DeelstraSenior Researcher, Bioforsk Acknowledgement Norwegian Embassy: Specially Mr. Arne Haug, Counselor/Deputy Head of Mission We also acknowledge BRRI and Bioforsk: Specially following Experts

3 Presentation Outline Project goal and objectives Study area Outputs and results of WP1 Conclusions and recommendations CEGIS Capacity in future works (Phase-II) Brief methodology

4 Goal of the Study Goal of the modeling exercise (WP1): Goal of the overall study: To develop an integrated adaptation framework in order to sustain and improve the rice production under different climate change scenarios in Bangladesh for contribution in - To generate the climate change scenarios - To assess the water availability using hydrological model (SWAT) - To asses the yield reduction of rice crops under different CC scenarios in Bangladesh

5 Objectives of the work package 1 (WP1) -To downscale the climate model result for generating climate variability scenarios -To generate water availability scenarios using hydrological model based on the downscaled climate models results -To assess the yield reduction of rice crop under different climate change scenarios through crop modeling -To develop the different GIS maps through GIS analysis using the model outputs -To prepare document on modeling activities and scenario generation -To assist BRRI for developing adaptation options using climate model result results through field experiments

6 AreaPopulation Drought prone 798,077 Saline prone 672,560 Total1,470,637 Study Area and Demography Drought prone area Saline prone area

7 Overall Study Approach Downscaling of climate model results Development of climate variability scenarios Hydrologic modeling and generation of water availability scenarios (SWAT) Crop production/yield reduction under different CC scenarios through crop modeling Field experiments Dev. of adaptation options based on the model result using the field experiments Climate Change Scenarios Water Availability Scenarios Crop Model (DRAS, AQUA Crop etc.) Dissemination of results to the end users (Planner, Decision Makers and Farmers) BRRI

8 Study Methodology-Downscaling of climate model results - using PRECIS Climate Change scenario : A1B : Average Emission Scenario (Rapid economic growth) A2 : High Emission Scenario (Moderate economic growth) Scenarios have been developed for the time frame: (40s) (70s) (2100s) Climate Change scenario : A1B : Average Emission Scenario (Rapid economic growth) A2 : High Emission Scenario (Moderate economic growth) Scenarios have been developed for the time frame: (40s) (70s) (2100s)

9 Results and Analysis – Downscaling of Climate Model Results

10 Temperature and Rainfall: Gomastapur (Drought Prone Area) Less rainfall in dry season Less water availability More irrigation water need Less rainfall in dry season Less water availability More irrigation water need High temperature in dry season More evaporation Increase water demand High temperature in dry season More evaporation Increase water demand A1BA1B A1BA1B A2A2 A2A2

11 Temperature and Rainfall: Amtali (Saline Prone Area) High temperature in dry season More evaporation Increase water demand High temperature in dry season More evaporation Increase water demand Less rainfall in dry season Less water availability More salinity Less rainfall in dry season Less water availability More salinity A1BA1B A1BA1B A2A2 A2A2

12 Results and Analysis – Water availability assessment using SWAT Model

13 Water availability assessment using SWAT SWAT an water balanced model which has been used for water availability assessment under different climate change scenarios for the study upazilas Major inputs of SWAT model: Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Soil Classification Land Cover and Use Slope Weather Data: Rainfall, Temperature, Humidity, Solar Radiation, Wind Speed, Evaporation Hydrological data: Discharge Major inputs of SWAT model: Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Soil Classification Land Cover and Use Slope Weather Data: Rainfall, Temperature, Humidity, Solar Radiation, Wind Speed, Evaporation Hydrological data: Discharge

14 Water availability assessment results in drought prone area - under different climate change scenarios Change in water availability (%) in drought prone area ScenarioDry SeasonWet Season A1B-139 A Dry season water availability will be reduced 13% in A1B and 20% in A2 scenario -Wet season water availability will increased 9% in A1B and 38% in A2 scenarios -Wet season water availability increasing rate in A2 is high due to rainfall will be more under A2 CC scenarios condition -Increase of monsoon flow is higher for drought prone area than saline prone area -Dry season water availability will be reduced 13% in A1B and 20% in A2 scenario -Wet season water availability will increased 9% in A1B and 38% in A2 scenarios -Wet season water availability increasing rate in A2 is high due to rainfall will be more under A2 CC scenarios condition -Increase of monsoon flow is higher for drought prone area than saline prone area

15 Change in water availability (%) in saline prone area ScenarioDry SeasonWet Season A1B A Dry season water availability will be reduced 15% in A1B and 23% in A2 scenario -Wet season water availability will increased 10% in A1B and 16% in A2 scenarios -Dry season water availability decreasing rate in A2 is higher than A1B may be due to less dry season rainfall under A2 CC scenarios condition -Reduction of dry season flow is higher for saline prone area than drought prone area -Dry season water availability will be reduced 15% in A1B and 23% in A2 scenario -Wet season water availability will increased 10% in A1B and 16% in A2 scenarios -Dry season water availability decreasing rate in A2 is higher than A1B may be due to less dry season rainfall under A2 CC scenarios condition -Reduction of dry season flow is higher for saline prone area than drought prone area Water availability assessment results in saline prone area - under different climate change scenarios

16 Crop Modeling (DRAS) Results : Assessment of yield reduction and water demand of crops under different climate change scenarios

17 Crop Variety Upazila Name Base Year (% of Yield Reduction) % Change of Yield Reduction 2040s2070s2100s A1BA2A1BA2A1BA2 T Aus Tanore Godagari Gomostapur T Aman Tanore Godagari Gomostapur Negative sign: Yield reduction decrease/Crop production increase Positive sign: Yield reduction increase/Crop production decrease Crop yield reduction of drought prone areas under different Climate Change Scenarios T.Aus (monsoon crop): For A1B scenarios- during 2040 and 2070 yield reduction will decreased and during 2100 yield reduction will increase. Further yield reduction will decrease for all the period (40s, 70s and 2100) except Godagari and Gomastapur under A2 Scenarios :

18 YR 4% decrease from Base YR 5% decrease from Base YR 11% Increase from Base Base Year Yield Reduction 34% YR 13% decrease from Base YR 3% Increase from Base YR 7% decrease from Base For both scenarios T Aus production will be increased from base situation except A2 (2070s) and A1B (2100s) YR 11% increase from Base YR 4% increase from Base YR 5% Increase from Base Base Year Yield Reduction 10% YR 5% increase from Base YR 4% increase from Base YR 2% decrease from Base For both scenarios T Aman production will be decreased from base situation except A2 (2100s)

19 Crop Variety Upazila Name Base Year (% of Yield Reduction) % Change of Yield Reduction 2040s2070s2100s A1BA2A1BA2A1BA2 T Aus Amtali Patharghata Kalapara T Aman Amtali Patharghata Kalapara Negative sign: Yield reduction decrease/Crop production increase Positive sign: Yield reduction increase/Crop production decrease Crop yield reduction of saline prone areas under different Climate Change Scenarios

20 Base Year Yield Reduction 8% YR 6% decrease from Base YR 4% decrease from Base YR 1% decrease from Base YR 7% decrease from Base For both scenarios T Aus production will be increased from base situation Base Year Yield Reduction 11% YR 7% increase from Base YR 19% increase from Base YR 2% increase from Base YR 10% increase from Base YR 12% increase from Base YR 8% increase from Base For both scenarios T Aman production will be decreased from base situation

21 Crop Variety Upazila Name Base Year NIR (mm) Change of NIR (mm) 2040s2070s2100s A1BA2A1BA2A1BA2 T Aus Tanore Godagari Gomostapur T Aman Tanore Godagari Gomostapur Boro Tanore Godagari Gomostapur Irrigation Water Demand at drought prone area different Climate Change Scenarios Negative sign: Irrigation water demand will be decreased Positive sign: Irrigation water demand will be increased

22 Irrigation Water Demand for T Aus CropIrrigation Water Demand for T Aman Crop Irrigation water demand maps for winter rice (Boro) crop under different CC scenarios

23 Crop Name Upazila Name Base Year (NIR (mm) Change of NIR (mm) A1BA2A1BA2A1BA2 T Aman Amtali Patharghata Kalapara T Aus Amtali Patharghata Kalapara Boro Amtali Patharghata Kalapara Irrigation Water Demand under different Climate Change Scenarios- Saline Area Negative sign: Irrigation water demand will be decreased Positive sign: Irrigation water demand will be increased

24 Conclusions For both scenarios T Aman (monsoon) crop production will be decreased from base situation in saline prone area. But T.Aus (pre-monsoon) crop production will increase For both scenarios T Aman production will be decreased from base situation except A2 (2100s) in drought prone area Dry season water availability will be reduced 15% in A1B and 23% in A2 scenario. Wet season water availability will increased 10% in A1B and 16% in A2 scenarios Dry season water availability decreasing rate in A2 is higher than A1B may be due to less dry season rainfall in under A2 CC scenarios condition Increase of monsoon flow is higher for drought prone area than saline prone area Dry season water availability will be reduced 15% in A1B and 23% in A2 scenario. Wet season water availability will increased 10% in A1B and 16% in A2 scenarios Dry season water availability decreasing rate in A2 is higher than A1B may be due to less dry season rainfall in under A2 CC scenarios condition Increase of monsoon flow is higher for drought prone area than saline prone area Dry season water availability will be reduced 15% in A1B and 23% in A2 scenario. Wet season water availability will increased 10% in A1B and 16% in A2 scenarios Dry season water availability decreasing rate in A2 is higher than A1B may be due to less dry season rainfall under A2 CC scenarios condition Reduction of dry season flow is higher for saline prone area than drought prone area Dry season water availability will be reduced 15% in A1B and 23% in A2 scenario. Wet season water availability will increased 10% in A1B and 16% in A2 scenarios Dry season water availability decreasing rate in A2 is higher than A1B may be due to less dry season rainfall under A2 CC scenarios condition Reduction of dry season flow is higher for saline prone area than drought prone area Incase of Drought prone area Incase of saline prone area

25 Recommendations Higher resolution climate model downscaled results very essential. Research fellowship can be introduced in the second phase of the project to get high resolution CC result can be obtained from ICTP Italy. Sensor based climate and other field data collection is highly essentials for the local level adaptation strategy formulation Model performance can be improved based on secondary and primary information (sensor based data) of water availability Not only water controls the yield, nutrient with water is also essential. Thus influence of nutrient is essential to adapt yield reduction Water availability estimation should be based on quality and quantity Couple of salinity intrusion and water availability model can use in coastal area Field level implementation of DRAS and AquaCrop model should be enhanced for scheduling of real time irrigation For better crop production Project Stakeholder Advisory Committee will demonstrate new technology to the farmers

26 Future activities Union wise water scarcity can be studied through assessing water availability using GIS/RS based model Development of Local level Adaptation Plan for Action (LAPA) is very essential. Union wise LAPA can developed considering climate induced disasters and agro-ecological zones Assessment of climate change impact on livelihood for the local level adaptation strategy formulation Agricultural Water Management Committee or Group formation under Triple (PPP) system providing technology based irrigation scheduling and fertilizer recommendations Study on sensor based field data collection by DAE field officials and farmers Field level implementation of DRAS and AquaCrop model at DAE. Training for Union Agriculture Officers for growing more crop using less irrigation water

27 Thank You


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