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Land policies in Brazil: Questions of interest Gilberto Câmara, INPE Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alike.

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Presentation on theme: "Land policies in Brazil: Questions of interest Gilberto Câmara, INPE Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alike."— Presentation transcript:

1 Land policies in Brazil: Questions of interest Gilberto Câmara, INPE Licence: Creative Commons ̶̶̶̶ By Attribution ̶̶̶̶ Non Commercial ̶̶̶̶ Share Alike

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3 Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season Sugarcane Crop Year 2002/2003 source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

4 Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season Sugarcane Crop Year 2010/2011 source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

5 MATO GROSSO – Sorriso: Crop Year 2002/2003 Annual Crop - 1 CropAnnual Crop - 2 Crops source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

6 MATO GROSSO – Sorriso: Crop Year 2010/2011 Annual Crop - 1 CropAnnual Crop - 2 Crops source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

7 Crop Year 2002/2003 Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season Sugarcane source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

8 Crop Year 2010/2011 Annual Crop – 1 Crop per season Annual Crop – 2 Crops per season Sugarcane source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

9 SÃO PAULO – Barretos: Crop Year 2002/ Annual Crop - 1 CropAnnual Crop - 2 Crops Sugarcane source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

10 SÃO PAULO – Barretos: Crop Year 2010/ Annual Crop - 1 CropAnnual Crop - 2 Crops Sugarcane source: Bernardo Rudorff (INPE)

11 Tradeoffs in double cropping? 27/2/13 | EDF-MMA11 source: Avery Cohn (NCAR)

12 Early Rainy Season Late Rainy Season Increase in soya prices No trend1 st crop 2 nd crop Decrease in soya prices 1 st crop 2 nd crop No trend 27/2/13 | EDF-MMA12 Tradeoffs in double cropping? source: Avery Cohn (NCAR)

13 13 Are biofuels replacing food production in Brazil? source: B. Rudorff, INPE

14 Are biofuels replacing food production in Brazil?

15 Brazil: Do biofuels cause indirect land change?

16 Brazil: Projected direct land change from biofuels (2020) source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)

17 Brazil: Projected indirect land change from biofuels (2020) source: Lapola et al (PNAS, 2010)

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19 Current productivity : 118 million Animal Units; Potential sustainable carrying capacity: 367 mi Animal Units; Current productivity only 32-34% of potential Current ProductivityPotential Productivity Bernardo Strassburg (Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade)

20 Potential Allocation in 2040 that fulfil all demands Brazil has already enough cleared land for all land- related needs, respecting environmental constraints, up to at least 2040; An increase from 32-34% to 49-52% would suffice to meet all future demands without further deforestation Results Bernardo Strassburg (Instituto Internacional para Sustentabilidade)

21 Sustainability? NPV (net present value) of land in Amazonia for cattle ranching Land speculation Land purchase Extensive ranching is only profitable for large farms source: Bowman et al. (Land Use Policy, 2012)

22 NPV (net present value) of land in Amazonia for cattle ranching source: Silva and Barreto (Imazon, 2011) No regulation Regulation

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