Presentation on theme: "Freshfel/SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference 25 th September 2009."— Presentation transcript:
Freshfel/SHAFFE Citrus Teleconference 25 th September 2009
Northern Hemisphere Global Crop forecast 2009-2010
Northern Hemisphere Production Total citrus Data based on official data, input from representative organisations and businesses to provide a trend for forthcoming season Objective is to provide trends Data from Cyprus, Italy, Greece, Morocco & Egypt is provisional – we hope to confirm these estimations in the coming weeks. Consequently information on export is still too early to be set. Total citrus production in NH very similar to last year, with a 0.2% decrease. –Orange: -7.4% –Easy peelers : -2% –Lemons : +0.3% –Grapefruits : +18%
Northern Hemisphere Production & Exports - Total citrus
Northern Hemisphere Production & Exports - Oranges
Northern Hemisphere Production & Exports - Easy Peelers
Northern Hemisphere Production & Exports - Lemons
Northern Hemisphere Production & Exports - Grapefruit
Northern Hemisphere Country information 2008-2009
Freshfel Citrus Teleconference Northern Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 season SPAIN 25th September 2009
Key points of 2009/10 season GENERAL CITRUS COMMENTS –Overall reduction –Maturity coming later –Better sizes than last season –Very good quality conditions –Exports volumes to be similar to 2008/9 season. –Less quantities will be sent to processing ORANGES –Overall Production down by 27% –Less production to be considered in all varieties but reduction is not so important in mid season navels
Key points of 2008/09 season EASY PEELERS –Overall Production down by 9% –Reduction is concentrated in medium/late varieties LEMONS –Overall Production down by 20% –Reduction is mainly concentrated in Vernas (-70%). –Slight reduction in Finos GRAPEFRUITS –Overall production down by 15% –No interest in processing –Export season to start 3rd week of october
Freshfel Citrus Teleconference Northern Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 season Italy 25th September 2009
Key points of 2009/10 season GENERAL CITRUS COMMENTS –Campaign expected to be improved on last year, considered back to normal –Oranges and soft citrus expected to be at levels similar to 2007/08 –Lemons expected to be the same as last year
Freshfel Citrus Teleconference Northern Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 season Greece 25th September 2009
Key points of 2008/09 season Key points which had an impact during the 2008/09 season –Heat on early June 2008. –Heat all over August 2008.
Indications for 2009/10 season Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts, water situation, flowering, planting information, picking dates, etc. –No problems till today has occurred –Ordinary (normal) harvest is expected.
Current issues of concern Issues expected to have significant impacts on 2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...) –Decrease of demand due to the economic crisis. –Intense competition.
Freshfel Citrus Teleconference Northern Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 season CYPRUS 25th September 2009
Key points of 2008/09 season Key points which had an impact during the 2008/09 season –The drought of the previous years……. –The low level of producer prices of the last few years specially for grapefruit ……. –Hale storms experienced during the 2008/9 picking season……. –…..
Indications for 2009/10 season Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts, water situation, flowering, planting information, picking dates, etc. –Water situation improved but still strong restrictions on quantity of water available for irrigation...... –Flowering was good but strong drop experienced and affected expected production....... –......
Current issues of concern Issues expected to have significant impacts on 2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...) –Russia: will the MRL sontrols become stricter ? Last season the barrier proved to be only theoretical....... –Is Europe and the world coming out of the crisis?...... –Weather conditions in producing countries that may affect exportable quantities.......
Freshfel Citrus Teleconference Northern Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 season Morocco 25th September 2009
Current issues of concern Forecast to be concluded by 5 th october –Soft citrus trends: fruit bearing being normal and expected decline of clementines in Berkane by 10%. Heat problems which could result in a problem of sizing. Sharp decrease of Nour due to alternate bearings ( -40%) –Oranges :expected to be similar to last year, similar fruit bearing, better climatic outlook for the start of the autumn could stimulate sizes which remain so far an issue –Too early to make export estimates
Freshfel Citrus Teleconference Northern Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 season TURKEY 25th September 2009
Key points of 2008/09 season Key points which had an impact during the 2008/09 season –The good quality of the easy peelers lead to an important increase of the exports –Opening up of the Iranian market and increase of exports to Iraqi markets paved the way to the remarkable increase of the citrus exports –Addendum to the memorandum between Turkey and Russian Federation signed
Indications for 2009/10 season Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts, water situation, flowering, planting information, picking dates, etc. –Relatively cooler summer has passed with regard to previous years –Higher volume of production is expected for lemons and grapefruits –Increase of grapefruit production may lead to sizing problems for the export markets
Current issues of concern Issues expected to have significant impacts on 2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...) –Attempts continue to open Far East markets. –Citrus Buying Mission Program is planning to be organized with broad participation of companies from 27 countries in November. –Turkish Citrus Promotion Group is to enhance and develop promotion activities in Russia.
Freshfel Citrus Teleconference Northern Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 season USA 25th September 2009
Indications for 2009/10 season The initial citrus crop report for the 2009/10 season will be released by the USDA at 8:30 AM on Friday, October 9 th. There have been some private forecasts and industry surveys to date, and much speculation particularly concerning the Florida industry and the spread of citrus greening. It is clearly difficult to factor for abandoned groves. Therefore, all we can do at this point is to provide some impressions. Texas: –Grapefruit: The production for the new campaign will be down slightly, 5 to 10% from drought conditions.
Florida Growing conditions have been quite favorable with good rains and lots of sunshine and the absence of strong tropical storms. Yet there are continuing indications of a trend towards lower production. Oranges: A reliable private forecast projects 6.34 m tons a 5% decline from the last 2008/09 crop report. About 5% of this crop will move into fresh juice markets and 72,000 tons will be fresh Navel Oranges which would be down 10% from last year. The balance of the crop will go to processing. Tangerines: The early varieties, Fallglo and Sunburst could be down by as much as 10% while the Honey Tangerine production could be up by 35% as the trees have recovered from the late winter freeze. From a base volume of 185,000 tons we see a gradual decline in the category. Grapefruit: The 2008/09 crop of 840,000 tons was 18% below 2007/08 and a further decline is projected for 2009/10. While maturity and sizing are very good the high incidence of Melanose will reduce the fresh pack- out.
California Navel Oranges: At 1.4 m tons this crop is forecast to be up by 5% over last seasons final report. Surveys indicate good quality and sizing. Tangerines: We anticipate an increase in production as more Clementines and Late Mandarin acreage comes into the bearing cycle. Estimates have last years movement at 45 million 2.3 kilo equivalents and that could easily reach 55 million this season. The trees are in the ground to produce over 100 million cartons. Seedy fruit continues to be a challenge along with overall yields which could be linked to growing conditions and/or cultural practices. Grapefruit: No major change in production is expected, with an estimate of 140,000 tons. Lemons: The desert areas of Southern California and Arizona are forecast to be down by 30% from lack of rain, although this is not the primary district for production. A crop of 725,000 tons would be down by 14% from the final 2008/09 crop report.
Economic Impact The prolonged economic downturn has caused consumers to be more cautious if not fearful of the future, and these concerns are definitely influencing buying behavior. The search for value, either real or perceived manifests itself in emerging trends: Dining-In or shopping at local produce markets Trading down for example exotic fruits for bananas Bulk commodities versus prepared salads Packaged Easy-Peelers versus the 5 lb. carton A 20% reduction in fresh lemon sales to food service In general the volume of produce sales in the USA market has remained steady but sales value is probably down by 5%. There is constant shifting of purchasing with the produce section, all in search of value.
Freshfel Citrus Teleconference Northern Hemisphere Forecast for 2009/2010 season China 25th September 2009
Key points of 2008/09 season Key points which had an impact during the 2008/09 season – China Pomelos –Strong local market –Currency issues –(Too) Many (inexperienced) players in the market (exporters as well as importers) –MRL-issues
Indications for 2009/10 season Summary report on climatic conditions, frosts, water situation, flowering, planting information, picking dates, etc. –Favourable weather conditions pre-season –Rain during harvest till now –Guangdong Province starts early with their (inferior) fruits – Spoils the Fujian markets –Around 30% more fruit (in kg) on the trees –Larger calibre fruit than usual –Fruit from Pinghe one week earlier than planned
Current issues of concern Issues expected to have significant impacts on 2009/10 season (trade issues, markets...) –Inferior fruits and speculative loadings led to rapid decrease of the market prices –Main suppliers and retailers act cautious –Less fruit shipped August/September than last season –More consciousness of the MRL theme than before –Develop MRL EU/RETAIL - ok - and possibly not ok- market offers –More strict involvement of local governments –Cautiousness with regards to payments/credits
Apples- 30% Pears- 25% Ginger+ 5% Garlic-30% Pomelos+ 30% China market estimates (main export products - % difference to last season)
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