Presentation on theme: "AgroCLIM software tool for effective calculation of agrometeorological indices ADAGIO & COST 734 Miroslav Trnka, Petr Hlavinka, Jan Balek, Josef Eitzinger,"— Presentation transcript:
AgroCLIM software tool for effective calculation of agrometeorological indices ADAGIO & COST 734 Miroslav Trnka, Petr Hlavinka, Jan Balek, Josef Eitzinger, Zdeněk Žalud, Daniela Semerádová
Structure of the talk 1.Motivation of the study; 2.Structure of the AgroCLIM ; 3.First results in the Central Europe; 4.Possible implementation of AgroCLIM in our COST action;
Motivation 1.To create comprehensive and easy to use tool for calculation of array of agrometeorological indices. 2.To have a tool that relies only on easily available meteorological data i.e. weather driven approach. 3.To serve as a complement to other approaches used at Mendel University and BOKU Wien (e.g. crop and pest dynamic models, statistical models, experiments etc.). 4.To provide a platform for COST 734 based studies - Intended as open access software for COST 734 teams after appropriate calibration and evaluation.
Structure of the AgroCLIM Snow Snow cover (presence, duration, start-end) Water bal. Water balance (ET reference, actual, soil water content) Temp. sums Characteristic days Sum of active temperatures and temperatures above thresholds. Combined indices Drought probability and duration Risk of the frost damage Field access Number of days with suitable condtions for sowing Number of days with suitable condtions for harvest Weather input (Daily) Rain+ VAPO Tmax +Tmin Srad+ Wind Future vs. present Period Season Region Multi- station Station Time scale Spatial scale
Input data format used in AgroCLIM
Interface of AgroCLIM
Central Europe – Example study Length of growing season and sum of effective temperatures; Potential water balance on the field level (Rainfall vs. ET0); Number days suitable for sowing and harvesting. a) b)
Change in the length of growing season by 2050 Prolongation of the vegetation season by 20-30 days. The rate of the change 30-50% higher in sites above 500 m. The prolongation of the season will be more less symmetrical.
Change in the timing of agrometeorological periods Longer vegetation season by 25-30 days. Shortening of the period with snow cover occurrence and risk of frost by 25-30 days. Mean duration of the frost season is likely to decrease. Probability of frosts damage in extreme years is likely to increase due to longer nights..
Change in the field scale water balance Significant increase of water deficit even at cold climate region. Marked change during key period for crop development (i.e. April – June = AMJ). The deficit in AMJ will increase by 30 and 40 mm with more pronounced change in the cold region.
Change in the snow cover and frost risk Decrease of number of days with full snow cover by 40-50%. More pronounced change at lowland sites. The occurrence of days with high potential for the frost damage will decrease at cool region and increase in cold region. No significant change of the risk is expected for the warm region.
Change in number of days suitable for sowing Number of days suitable for sowing on medium soils will increase by 10-15% during fall and 4-12% during spring. Early sowing will be enhanced especially in warm region. Cool and cold region will have to still rely on later sowing dates.
Change in number of days suitable for harvest Proportion of days suitable for harvesting will increase especially in case of cold region (6-10%). The June weather will remain relatively unfavorable for harvest. This pose a potential problem for farmers under the changed climate due to expected shifts of harvest dates to earlier terms.
Implementation of AgroCLIM in COST 734 1. List of interested parties for a COST 734 study (today or tomorrow) Required daily weather inputs for selected sites (1961-2000 at least 25 years) 2.2. Preprocessing of the weather inputs – Mendel University will aid with the whole process (calculating SRAD, VAPO etc.) - by June 2008. 3.3. Workshop during the next MC meeting (half a day). Processing of weather data – construction of synthetic weather series. 4. Running the AgroCLIM for the COST 734 sites under present and changed climate (July-August 2008). Dissemination of the outputs to all participants and interpretation. 5. Preparation of a COST 734 manuscript for the 2nd COST book + Journal paper. Dissemination of final version of AgroCLIM software to study participants.
Implementation of AgroCLIM in COST 734 Ideally we will have stations representing all Environmental zones Covering at least 15- 20 countries. Using stations in the main agricultural region of each COST member state. Compatible with the first assessment o the WG4 group.