Presentation on theme: "The Future of Extreme Weather Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc."— Presentation transcript:
The Future of Extreme Weather Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc. http://www.wunderground.com
Education: University of Michigan B.S. in Meteorology, 1982 M.S. in Meteorology, 1983 Thesis: A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Thesis: Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones Me
Served as Flight Meteorologist for NOAAs Aircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990 Correction of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 AircraftCorrection of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 Aircraft A Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane GilbertA Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane Gilbert Wind Measurement From AircraftWind Measurement From Aircraft Flying Into the Eye of a HurricaneFlying Into the Eye of a Hurricane Meteorology at BrockportMeteorology at Brockport Publications:
My Hurricane Hugo flight: http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.asp
Will Hurricanes Increase in Frequency and Intensity?
Costliest U.S. Hurricanes of all time 1.Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL)20053$133,800,000,000 2.Andrew (SE FL/SE LA)19925$40,000,000,000 3.Ike (TX/LA/MS)*20082$27, 000,000,000 4.Wilma (FL)20053$17,100,000,000 5.Rita (LA/TX)20053$17,100,000,000 5.Charley (FL)20044$16,500,000,000 6.Ivan (FL/AL)20043$15,400,000,000 7.Hugo (SC)19894$15,300,000,000 8.Frances (FL)20042$9,900,000,000 10.Agnes (NE U.S.)19721$8,602,500,000 *Ike did an additional $4.4 billion in damage as an extratropical storm
Expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005). Expected increase in SST by 2100: 1-2 °C. Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5- 10%. Difference in wind speed between a Cat 3 and Cat 4: 15%. Thus, major hurricanes in 2100 should do 1.5 - 3 times more damage than they do now.
The U.S coast is very vulnerable to sea level rise
1910-1920: NJ coast was exposed to high water levels from extreme storms less than 200 hours per year. Early 1990's: Coast was exposed to high water from storms of the same magnitude 700 to 1200 hours per year. No increases in storm intensity or frequency that might account for the increasing high water levels. Conclusion: Increase in storm surge exposure of the coast was due to sea-level rise of 1 foot over the 80-year period (Zhang et al.,1997) Sea level rise will lead to increased storm surge damage
Are Tornadoes Increasing in Frequency and Intensity?
Winter of 2009 – 2010: most extreme Arctic Oscillation pattern in the 145-year record leads to severe winter in Europe and Eastern U.S., but Canadas warmest and driest winter ever Snow covers the U.K., January 7, 2010
A strong El Niño and a strong La Niña in the same year
The National Climatic Data Centers Climate Extremes Index (CEI): http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cei/cei.html 1.Percentage of U.S. with max temperatures much below normal and much above normal. 2.Percentage of U.S. with min temperatures much below normal and much above normal. 3.Percentage of U.S. in severe drought and with severe moisture surplus. 4.Percentage of U.S. with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events. 5.Percentage U.S. with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and without precipitation.
Is U.S. weather getting more extreme? Yes. NOAA (Gleason et al., 2008) concluded that the percentage of the U.S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation has generally been increasing since the early 1970s. These increases were most pronounced in summer. No trends were noted in winter. 4 of the 10 most extreme years in the past century occurred since 1996.
Sixteen Potential $10 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters of the Next 30 Years
Seasonal Predictions, December 2010: Dr. Bill Gray: Dr. Bill Gray: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes TSR, Inc: TSR, Inc: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes Climatology: Climatology: 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes Since 1995: Since 1995: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes
Since 1995number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes 5 El Niño years:1997 8,3,1 2002 12,4,2 Average: 11, 5, 3 200415,9,6 200610,5,2 20099,3,2 6 La Niña years:199519,11,5 199814,10,3 Average: 14, 9, 4 199912,8,5 200015,8,3 200715,6,2 201019,12,5 5 Neutral years:199613,9,6 200115,9,4 Average: 18, 10, 5 200316,7,3 200528,15,7 200816,8,5
The fearless wunderground.com 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms 16 named storms 9 hurricanes 9 hurricanes 4 intense hurricanes 4 intense hurricanes May the steering currents be your friend!