Presentation on theme: "The Future of Extreme Weather Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc."— Presentation transcript:
The Future of Extreme Weather Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.
Education: University of Michigan B.S. in Meteorology, 1982 M.S. in Meteorology, 1983 Thesis: A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Thesis: Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones Me
Served as Flight Meteorologist for NOAAs Aircraft Operations Center, Correction of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 AircraftCorrection of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 Aircraft A Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane GilbertA Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane Gilbert Wind Measurement From AircraftWind Measurement From Aircraft Flying Into the Eye of a HurricaneFlying Into the Eye of a Hurricane Meteorology at BrockportMeteorology at Brockport Publications:
My Hurricane Hugo flight:
Will Hurricanes Increase in Frequency and Intensity?
Costliest U.S. Hurricanes of all time 1.Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL)20053$133,800,000,000 2.Andrew (SE FL/SE LA)19925$40,000,000,000 3.Ike (TX/LA/MS)*20082$27, 000,000,000 4.Wilma (FL)20053$17,100,000,000 5.Rita (LA/TX)20053$17,100,000,000 5.Charley (FL)20044$16,500,000,000 6.Ivan (FL/AL)20043$15,400,000,000 7.Hugo (SC)19894$15,300,000,000 8.Frances (FL)20042$9,900,000, Agnes (NE U.S.)19721$8,602,500,000 *Ike did an additional $4.4 billion in damage as an extratropical storm
Expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005). Expected increase in SST by 2100: 1-2 °C. Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 5- 10%. Difference in wind speed between a Cat 3 and Cat 4: 15%. Thus, major hurricanes in 2100 should do times more damage than they do now.
The U.S coast is very vulnerable to sea level rise
: NJ coast was exposed to high water levels from extreme storms less than 200 hours per year. Early 1990's: Coast was exposed to high water from storms of the same magnitude 700 to 1200 hours per year. No increases in storm intensity or frequency that might account for the increasing high water levels. Conclusion: Increase in storm surge exposure of the coast was due to sea-level rise of 1 foot over the 80-year period (Zhang et al.,1997) Sea level rise will lead to increased storm surge damage
Are Tornadoes Increasing in Frequency and Intensity?
Borden and Cutter, 2008
Hurricane Igor as seen from the International Space Station 2010: A Year of Incredible Weather Events
Coldest January-February in Florida since at least 1937 in Florida since at least 1937
January 2010: Strongest winter storm on record wallops Southwest U.S.
Snowmaggedon: February killed, $2.4 billion damage
January 2011: Rio de Janeiro flood Deadliest natural disaster in Brazils history 900+ killed, $1.2 billion damage
January 2011: 100-year flood in Sri Lanka 43 killed, $0.5 billion damage
Arctic sea ice extent, Sep. 19, 2010, 3 rd lowest on record 2010: A year of remarkable climate events
2010: Earths warmest year in history
2010: Earths wettest year in history
Winter of 2009 – 2010: most extreme Arctic Oscillation pattern in the 145-year record leads to severe winter in Europe and Eastern U.S., but Canadas warmest and driest winter ever Snow covers the U.K., January 7, 2010
A strong El Niño and a strong La Niña in the same year
Amazons 2 nd 100-year drought in 5 years
2010: Greenlands warmest year in history
Greenlands Petermann Glacier calves 100-square mile ice island
Is the weather getting more extreme?
The National Climatic Data Centers Climate Extremes Index (CEI): 1.Percentage of U.S. with max temperatures much below normal and much above normal. 2.Percentage of U.S. with min temperatures much below normal and much above normal. 3.Percentage of U.S. in severe drought and with severe moisture surplus. 4.Percentage of U.S. with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events. 5.Percentage U.S. with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and without precipitation.
Is U.S. weather getting more extreme? Yes. NOAA (Gleason et al., 2008) concluded that the percentage of the U.S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation has generally been increasing since the early 1970s. These increases were most pronounced in summer. No trends were noted in winter. 4 of the 10 most extreme years in the past century occurred since 1996.
Sixteen Potential $10 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters of the Next 30 Years
5) Miami Hurricane Probability: 60% Miami Beach, 1926 Hurricane
4) California/Southwest U.S. Drought Probability: 90% San Bruno, California Fires, June 2008
3) Lower Mississippi Flood causes failure of the Old River Control Structure Probability: 40% Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water
June 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta 2) California ARkSTORM Flood Probability: 30%
1) Catastrophic Geomagnetic Storm Probability: 30% X-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001Strongest Solar Flare on Record
Transformer at Salem Nuclear Plant fried by geomagnetic storm in 1989
A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm would likely cause a collapse of the U.S. power system lasting years
Predictions for the 2011 hurricane season
Seasonal Predictions, December 2010: Dr. Bill Gray: Dr. Bill Gray: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes TSR, Inc: TSR, Inc: 15.6 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes Climatology: Climatology: 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes Since 1995: Since 1995: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes
Since 1995number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes 5 El Niño years:1997 8,3, ,4,2 Average: 11, 5, ,9, ,5, ,3,2 6 La Niña years:199519,11, ,10,3 Average: 14, 9, ,8, ,8, ,6, ,12,5 5 Neutral years:199613,9, ,9,4 Average: 18, 10, ,7, ,15, ,8,5
NOAA CFS Forecast made Dec. 30, 2010
The fearless wunderground.com 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms 16 named storms 9 hurricanes 9 hurricanes 4 intense hurricanes 4 intense hurricanes May the steering currents be your friend!