Presentation on theme: "THE 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON SUDDENLY BECAME ACTIVE WITH 4 ADDITIONAL HURRICANES SECOND HALF September 5 –November 30, 2012 Walter Hays, Global."— Presentation transcript:
THE 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON SUDDENLY BECAME ACTIVE WITH 4 ADDITIONAL HURRICANES SECOND HALF September 5 –November 30, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA
2012S STORM TRACKS (as of September 8)
NAMED STORMS IN 2012 (Continued) ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21 JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25 KIRK –Hurricane, Aug. 27 LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 3 MICHAEL – Hurricane, Sept. 4 NADINE – Tropical Storm, Sept. 12
NAMED STORMS IN 2012 OSCAR – Tropical Storm, Oct. 4 PATTY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 11 RAFAEL – Hurricane, Oct. 12 SANDY – Hurricane, Oct. 22 TONY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 24 VALERIE WILLIAM
The 2012 season is lagging behind past seasons: By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we had one major hurricane (Katia). This year, we have one-- Michael.
ISAAC: FROM TS ON AUG, 21 TO HURRICANE ON AUG. 26
ISAAC DID NOT RETURN IN THE GULF AS TS NADINE: SEPT 12
LESLIE: FROM A TS ON SEPT 3 TO HURRICANE ON SEPT 5
SEPT 8: CAT 1 HURRICANE LESLIE IS HEADED SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA AND CANADA
SEPT 9: LESLIE PASSES 120 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL: FAR OUT IN ATLANTICSEPT. 4
Between 5 a.m. on Wednesday and 5 a.m. Thursday, Michaels pressure suddenly fell 40 mb and the maximum sustained winds increased by 63 mph, truly a remarkable case of rapid intensification
MICHAEL BECOMES CAT 3 HURRICANE: SEPT. 6
Michael, the 7 th hurricane of 2012 and located 980 miles west-southwest of the Azores and heading northeast at 7 mph, will likely weaken as it encounters colder waters..
MICHAELS PATH: SEPT. 6
MICHAELS ULTIMATE PATH
On Sept. 7 th, the seasonal ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) (using the data base), stood at 61, or 143% of an average season.
BUT--- ON SEPTEMBER 12, 2012 A LULL IN ACTIVITY OCCURED AS EL NINO BEGAN AGAIN
SEPT. 12: EL NINO BEGINS AGAIN
Depending on how quickly El Niño develops, there could be a quick shutdown of tropical systems during the latter part of the Atlantic season and an extended season on the Pacific side.
TROPICAL STORM NADINE: SEPT. 12
TROPICAL STORM NADINE BECAME A CAT 1 HURRICANE ON SEPT. 14 th Because of its location in the Azores, Nadine, the 8 th hurricane of the season, did not cause any major concerns in spite of its unusually long life.
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON OCT. 4 th Oscar, the 15 th storm of 2012, was not expected to last very long or to cause any major problems.
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DIED ON OCTOBER 5
TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ON OCT. 11 th Patty is the 16 th storm of 2012.
TROPICAL STORM PATTY
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORMED ON OCT. 12 TH Rafael was the 18 th storm and 9 th hurricane of the season
HURRICANE RAFAEL: A CAT 1 STORM ON OCTOBER 16
TROPICAL STORM SANDY AKA FRANKENSTORM FORMED ON OCT. 22 ND Sandy, the 19 th storm of the season, quickly became a CAT 2 hurricane. SANDY left 39 dead in the Caribbean enroute to the USA.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY: OCTOBER 22
CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24
OCTOBER 24: CAT I HURRRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR KINGSTON, THE CAPITOL OF JAMACIA Schools and businesses were closed and people in low-lying areas at risk from flooding were evacuated
FORECAST FOR SANDY: OCTOBER 24
TROPICAL STORM TONY FORMED ON OCT. 24 TH Tony, the 20 th storm of the season, formed in the Atlantic, and is not likely to be a threat
TROPICAL STORM TONY: OCTOBER 24
SANDY: OCTOBER 24 Sandy, now the seasons ninth hurricane, became a huge storm with wind and rain bands reaching out 500 km or more from the storm center, producing cm of rain in Jamaica, Bermuda, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Cuba
LIKELY IMPACTS OF SANDY ON FLORIDA SATURDAY-- OCTOBER 27 Miami, Florida, which is already water- logged from 1 ½ meters of rain this summer, is expected to experience more rain, gusty winds, huge waves, and dangerous rip tides as a likely weakened Sandy continues to move northward.
CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24
SANDY: RAIN IN HAITI
SANDY IMPACTS HAVANA. CUBA: OCTOBER 25
SANDY: RAIN IN CUBA
SANDY: RAIN BEGINS IN FT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA; OCT. 26
POSSIBILITIES AFTER FLORIDA SATURDAY Sandy could veer northeastward and eventually die in the Atlantic, OR, MORE LIKELY … As Sandy moves northward, it could become a powerful SUPERSTORM causing losses of $ 1 billion dollars + bringing heavy rain, high winds, and power outages along Eastern seaboard
OCEAN CITY, MARYLAND
REHOBOTH BEACH, DELAWARE: OCT. 29
SUPER STORM SANDY: OCT , 2012
$360 MILLION STORM SURGE, NEW HAVEN, CT: OCT. 30
OCT. 29 HIGHLIGHTS: NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY THE SUDDENNESS AND THE RECORD HEIGHT OF THE STORM SURGE CAUSED A HUGE DISASTER
STORM SURGE SET NEW RECORD WITHOUT BENEFIT OF FULL-MOON HIGH TIDE 13 ft (4 1/3 m); a new record Sustained winds of 133 kph (80 mph).