Presentation on theme: "The WJP Rule of Law Index"— Presentation transcript:
1 The WJP Rule of Law Index 1The WJP Rule of Law IndexAlejandro PonceThe World Justice ProjectApril, 20131
2 The WJP Rule of Law Index in a nutshell DRAFT - NOT FOR CIRCULATIONThe WJP Rule of Law Index in a nutshell2The ROL Index is a quantitative assessment tool designed to offer a comprehensive picture of the extent to which countries adhere to the rule of law in practice.Contribution:Comprehensive definition of Rule of LawNew data:Views and experiences of random ordinary peopleViews and opinions of expertsQuantification of 48 rule of law outcomes in 97 countries obtained from more than 400 variables.22
3 MotivationConsensus within the international community in support of the rule of law.“Establishing respect for the rule of law is fundamental to achieving a durable peace in the aftermath of conflict, to the effective protection of human rights, and to sustained economic progress and development.” (United Nations)Yet there is little agreement about what constitutes the rule of law and what its current status is
4 Challenges in defining the rule of law Thin vs. thickEnds vs. meansWestern tradition
8 DRAFT - NOT FOR CIRCULATION Measurement Approach8Perspective of the ordinary person:Two sources of entirely new data:A general population poll (GPP): Probability sample - 1,000 respondents per country (three largest cities).Qualified respondent’s questionnaires (QRQ): Completed by in-country experts in civil and commercial law; criminal justice; labor law; and public health.Botero J. and Ponce A., Measuring the Rule of Law. WJP Working Paper # 1 (2011). Available on-line at:88
9 Examples of questionsIn the last 3 years, have you or someone in your household, been subjected to physical abuse by the police or the military? [If yes] Did you or anyone else report the crime to the police or other authority? (GPP) Assume that a poor person is arrested on suspicion of aggravated robbery. Assume that the suspect is taken into custody and detained at a local police station in the city where you live. How likely is it that the police interrogators inflict minor physical harm on the detained suspect to admit the crime? (QRQ)
10 DRAFT - NOT FOR CIRCULATION Measurement Approach10The resulting data set contains more than 400 variables, derived from the assessments of 66,000 members of the general population and 2000 local experts, in the 66 countries included in the 2011 Index.1010
11 Building the scores11400 variables 48 sub-factors and 9 factors11
12 Building the scores 8. Effective criminal justice DRAFT - NOT FOR CIRCULATIONBuilding the scores8.1 Criminal investigation is effective.8.2 Criminal adjudication system is timely and effective8.7 Due process of law and the rights of the accused.- Presumption of innocenceArrest and pre-trial detentionTorture and abusive treatment to suspectsLegal representationAccess to translatorsEvidenceRights of prisoners8. Effectivecriminaljustice30 questions
14 DRAFT - NOT FOR CIRCULATION Validity checksFace validityRely on several variablesInclude the assessments of experts in different disciplines and the general publicCheck our results against qualitative and quantitative third party sources.Sensitivity analysis to assess how variation in the assumptions (including missing data, weighting, normalization, or aggregation) and the samples can alter our estimates14The resulting data set contains more than 400 variables, derived from the assessments of 66,000 members of the general population and 2000 local experts, in the 66 countries included in the 2011 Index.1414
15 Acknowledging limitations 151) Definition:Different definitions and value structures (Uwa community in Colombia).Different legal architectures (Parliamentary democracy, presidential democracy, kingdom).Different goals (e.g. Criminal system: Retribution and deterrence in USA; rehabilitation and social harmony in Japan).2) Measurement:Cross-cultural differences.Sensitive questions.Measurement error.3) Sampling: Rural vs. urban.1515
21 Eastern Europe and Central Asia Estonia: Ranks in the top 20 in 7 dimensionsRussia: Deficiencies in checks and balances (92/97)Turkey: 39th out of 97 in regulatory enforcement, 76th in fundamental rightsAggregate rule of law score
22 Bribery in Sub-Saharan Africa Did you (or the person living in your household) have to pay a bribe in order to receive medical attention at any Public hospital or clinic?
23 AccountabilityEgyptIranJordanLebanonMoroccoTunisiaUAEIn practice, the government's power is not concentrated in one person, but is distributed among different independent branches, for instance the President or Prime Minister, the Congress or Legislative body, and the judges.0.580.260.650.900.680.640.38Government officials are sanctioned for misconduct0.490.350.550.390.480.71Source: The World Justice Project Rule of Law Index
24 A tool for discussing country-specific findings
25 Colombia: Argument for reform Colombia, November 15, 2010:“(...) Another important organization that promotes justice around the world, the World Justice Project, just released its report entitled Rule of Law Index, and it includes Colombia… If we review the area of access to justice, we find that we get a score very close to zero on the effectiveness of the criminal investigation system… these reports, that are known on a global scale, must make us turn on our alarms. You—the judiciary—and us—the government—together with Congress, must put all our effort to achieving a more efficient and effective criminal justice system.”Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia
26 Mexico: Delivery of Justice DRAFT - NOT FOR CIRCULATIONMexico: Delivery of Justice262626
31 Government bound by law Equality before the law Law and order Definitions: Rachel Kleinfeld "Competing definitions of the Rule of Law"Government bound by lawEquality before the lawLaw and orderPredictable, efficient justiceLack of state violation of human rights
32 Statistical Tests on the WJP Rule of Law Index Statistical tests of theWJP Rule of Law IndexStatistical Tests on the WJP Rule of Law IndexIn summary, “the JRC analysis suggests that the conceptualized multi-level structure of the WJP Rule of Law Index is statistically coherent and no dimension is dominated by any of its underlying components. Country ranks across the eight dimensions are also fairly robust to methodological changes related to the estimation of missing data, weight, or aggregation rule (less than ± 1 position shift in 90% of all cases).”Saisana, M., and Saltelli, A., ‘Statistical Tests on the WJP Rule of Law Index 2011’.Saisana, M., and Saltelli, A., ‘Rankings and Ratings: Instructions for Use’, Hague Journal on the Rule of Law, 2011, Volume 3, Issue 2.
33 Middle East and North Africa Discrimination against women and religions minorities remains an area of concern Imagine that the local police detain two persons equally suspected of committing a crime. In your opinion, which of the following characteristics would place one of them at a disadvantage?
34 Latin America & the Caribbean Global RankingLimited government powers56 / 97Corruption57 / 97Order and Security72 / 97Fundamental rights49 / 97Open government52 / 97Regulatory enforcement54 / 97Civil Justice63 / 97Criminal justice68 / 97
35 Sanctions for misconduct in LAC Latin America, as a region, achieves the second lowest score in factor 1.5 “Government officials are sanctioned for misconduct”Example: Assume that a high-ranking government officer is taking government money for personal benefit and one of his employees witnesses this conduct, reports it to the relevant authority, and provides sufficient evidence to prove it. Assume that the press obtains the information and publishes the story. Which one of the following outcomes is most likely? (data for Mexico)
36 Factor 7: Civil Justice55% of Chinese respondents answered that judges decide most cases according to “What the government tells them to do”.
37 Middle East and North Africa Global RankingLimited government powers53 / 97Corruption46 / 97Order and Security48 / 97Fundamental rights76 / 97Open government57 / 97Regulatory enforcement49 / 97Civil JusticeCriminal justice54 / 97
38 Latin America & the Caribbean Venezuela is the weakest performer in the regionMexico: Weak in corruption, security, and criminal justiceChile and Uruguay rank in the top 25 in five dimensionsBrazil: Best performer among BRIC countries, but crime is highAggregate rule of law score
39 Sub-Saharan Africa Corruption is a problem throughout the region Zimbabwe: Deficiencies in checks and balances (96/97)Ghana ranks first among low-income countries in four dimensionsBotswana ranks first in the region in seven dimensions and top 25 globally in six.Aggregate rule of law score
40 South Asia Global Ranking Limited government powers 60/ 97 Corruption 75 / 97Order and Security82 / 97Fundamental rights69 / 97Open government71 / 97Regulatory enforcementCivil Justice81 / 97Criminal justice59 / 97