Presentation on theme: "Elections and Campaigns"— Presentation transcript:
1 Elections and Campaigns Wilson Chapter 8Klein Oak High School
2 Congressional vs. Presidential 1 Two phasesgetting nominated andgetting electedGetting nominatedGetting your name on the ballotAn individual effortU.S. parties now stress label more than organizationParties used to play larger role
3 Congressional vs. Presidential 2 Presidential races are more competitive than House races.White House has made more partisan changes than the House.Winning margins are narrower for presidential races.Term limits cut a president’s incumbency advantage.e.g. Al Gore in 2000
4 Congressional vs. Presidential 3 Fewer people vote in midterm elections.Candidates must appeal to more partisan and activist voters.Congressional incumbents can serve their constituents.Credit for government grants, programs, etc., can be claimed by Congress member via mailings and visits home.President can’t (power is not local) and must communicate by mass media
5 Congressional vs. Presidential 4 Congressional candidates can campaign against Washington.President is held accountable.But congressional candidates suffer when their party’s economic policies fail.Power of presidential coattails has declinedCongressional elections have become largely independent of presidential election.Reduces meaning (and importance) of party
6 Running for President 1Getting mentioned as being presidential caliberUsing reporters, trips, speechesSponsoring legislation, governor of large stateSetting aside time to runReagan: six years;Mondale: four yearsMay have to resign from office first (Dole in 1996), though many campaign while in office
7 Running for President 2 Money Individuals can give $1,000, PACs can give $5,000 in each election to each candidate.Qualifying for matching funds for primariesCandidates must raise $5,000 in twenty states in individual contributions of $250 or less
8 Running for President 3 Organization large paid staff volunteers e.g., Kerry Campaign Staffvolunteersadvisers on issues
9 Running for President 4 Strategy and themes Incumbents defend their record; challengers attack incumbents.Setting the tone (positive or negative)Developing a theme: “trust,” “confidence,” etc.Judging the timing (early momentum vs. reserving resources for later)Choosing a target voter: who’s the audience? Who will change their vote?
10 Primary and General Campaigns What works in a primary election may not work in a general election, and vice versa.Different voters, workers, media attentionMust mobilize activists who will give money, volunteer, and attend caucusesActivists are more ideologically stringent than are the voters at large.
11 Iowa CaucusesHeld in January (text is wrong) of presidential election yearCandidates must do well or be disadvantaged in media attention, contributor interestWinners tend to be most liberal Democrat, most conservative Republican
12 The Balancing ActBeing conservative enough or liberal enough to get nominatedThen move to center to get electedApparent contradictions can alienate voters from all candidates.Even primary voters can be more extreme ideologically than average voters;e.g., McGovern in 1972
13 Two Kinds of Campaign Issues Position issues:rival candidates have opposing views,voters are divided and a partisan realignment may resultPosition issues in 2000: social security, defense, public school choice systemsValence issues:candidate supports the public, widely held viewDominated the 1996 electionIncreasingly important because television leads to a reliance on popular symbols and admired images
14 Television Paid advertising (spots) News broadcasts (“visuals”) Little known candidates can increase name recognition through the frequent use of spots (example, Carter in 1976).Probably less effect on general than primary elections because most voters rely on many sources for informationNews broadcasts (“visuals”)Cost littleMay have greater credibility with votersRely on having television camera crew aroundMay actually be less informative than spots and therefore make less of an impression
15 Debates Usually an advantage only to the challenger Reagan in 1980: reassured voters by his performance1988 primary debates with little impact on voters
16 Slips of the Tongue Risk in debates and visuals Forces candidates to rely on stock speeches—campaign themes and proven applause-getting linesSell yourself as much or more than ideas
17 Ross Perot’s Campaign depended on television. CNN appearances InfomercialsTelevised debates with major party contenders
18 The Computer Makes possible direct-mail campaigns Allows candidates to address specific voters via direct mailMailing to specific groups, so more specific views can be expressed
19 Gap Between Campaigning & Governing Has been widening in recent yearsParty leaders had to worry about their candidates’ reelection so campaigning and government linkedToday’s consultants work for different people in different elections—no participation in governing.
20 The Sources of Campaign Money 1 Presidential primaries:part private,part public moneyFederal matching funds for all individuals’ donations of $250 or lessGives candidates an incentive to raise money from small donorsGovernment also gives lump-sum grants to parties to cover convention costs.
21 The Sources of Campaign Money 2 Presidential general elections:all public money1996:$61.8 million for major party candidates,$29 million for Perot
22 The Sources of Campaign Money 3 Congressional elections:all private moneyindividuals,political action committees, andpolitical partiesMost money comes from individual small donors ($lOO—$200 a person).$1,000 maximum for individual donorsBenefit performances by rock starts, etc., can raise large amounts of money.$5,000 limit for PACsbut most give just a few hundred dollarsIncumbents receive one-third of their campaign funds from PACs and spend little of their own money.Challengers must supply much of their own money.
23 Campaign Finance Rules 1 Watergate and illegal donations from corporation, unions, and individualsBrought about the 1974 federal campaign reform law and Federal Election Commission (FEC)
24 Campaign Finance Rules 2 Reform lawSet limit on individual donations ($1,000) per candidate per election)Reaffirmed ban on corporate and union donation...but allowed them to raise money through PACsPACs in turn raised money from members or employeesSet limit on PAC donations ($5,000 per election per candidate)Primary and general election counted separately for donations
25 Campaign Finance Rules 3 Supreme Court ruled that limits could not be set on campaign spending by an individual candidate unless federal funding was being received.Buckley v. ValeoLimit of $50,000 on out-of-pocket spending by a presidential candidate who accepted federal financing
26 Campaign Finance Rules 4 Law did not limit independent political advertising—no consultation with candidate or campaign organizationTypically done by ideologically oriented PACsSometimes negative or attack advertising is involved
27 Campaign Finance Rules 5 Loopholes in the lawAllows soft money—money for local party activities, e.g., getting out the voteAllows bundling“The practice of pooling individual contributions from various people -- often those employed by the same business or in the same profession -- in order to maximize the political influence of the bundler. “ (source)
28 Effects of Reform Goal: To expose and publicize fundraising Successful, but it has limitationsgreatly increased power of PACs and thus of special interestsshifted control of money away from parties to candidatesgiven advantage to wealthy challengersgiven advantage to ideological candidatespenalized candidates who start campaigning late, who don’t have war chestshelped incumbents and hurt challengers
29 Campaign Finance Reform Further reforms may be unconstitutional and also unsuccessful.Popular, questionable reforms:Cut individual donationsFree advertising for candidatesBan soft moneyFederal fundingAbolish PACs
30 Money and Winning 1Presidential candidates have similar funds because of federal funding, but parties may have different amounts of soft money.Other factors whose influence on the presidential campaign is usually overstated:Vice presidential nomineePolitical reportingReligion of the presidential candidateAbortion as a single issueNew voting groupsParty affiliation, state of the economy, and candidate character influences voting in presidential elections.
31 Money and Winning 2 Congressional races—money has a greater effect [Your teacher disagrees with Wilson on this. Recent economic studies show little correlation.]Challenger must spend to be recognized.Jacobson: big spending challengers do betterBig spending incumbents also do better and higher spending has become the norm.[Your teacher questions whether the money produced success or, more likely, likely success attracted money.]
32 Money and Winning 3 Money doesn’t make the only difference. Party, incumbency, and issues also have a role.Advantages of incumbency, in fundraisingCan provide services to constituencyCan use franked mailingsCan get free publicity by sponsoring legislation or conducting investigations
33 Money and Winning 4 Ideas for reform Unlikely: Congress won’t agree since incumbent had advantageThe “constitutional right to campaign” involvedPublic financing of congressional races would give incumbents even more of an advantage.Abolishing PAC money might allow fat cats to reemerge as a major forceShorter campaigns might help incumbents.
34 What Decides Elections? - an overview Party IdentificationIssuesThe CampaignFinding a Winning Coalition
35 Party Identification Why don’t Democrats always win? Democrats less wedded to their party than are RepublicansGOP does better among independents.Republicans have higher turnout.
36 Issues 1 “It’s the economy, stupid!” V. 0. Key: most voters who switch parties do so in their own interestsThey know what issues affect them personally.They have strong principles about certain issues (abortion, etc.).Prospective voting is used by relatively few voters.Those voters know the issues and vote accordingly.Most common among activists and special interest groups
37 Issues 2Retrospective voting practiced by most voters, and decides most electionsJudge the incumbent’s performance and vote accordinglyHave things gotten better or worse, especially economically?Reagan in 1980 debateExamples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996Usually helps incumbent.., unless economy has gotten worseMidterm elections: voters turn against president’s party2002 exception (war)
38 The Campaign Does make a difference reawaken voters’ partisan loyaltieslet voters see how candidates handle and apply pressurelet voters judge candidates’ characters and core valuesTend to emphasize themes over detailsTrue throughout American historyWhat has changed is importance of primary electionsGives more influence to single-issue groups with loyal members who vote as a block
39 Finding a Winning Coalition 1 Ways of looking at various groupsHow loyal, or percentage voting for partyHow important, or number voting for party
40 Finding a Winning Coalition 2 Democratic CoalitionBlacks most loyalJews slipping somewhatHispanics somewhat mixed because of underlying ethnic differencesPolitical power does not yet match numbers.Turnout will increase as more become citizens.See box, The Hispanic Vote.
41 Finding a Winning Coalition 3 Republican CoalitionParty of business and professional people who are very loyalexception: 1964 (AuH2O!)Farmers are often Republican, but are changeable.Representatives of different segments of the coalition stress loyalty or numbers, because can rarely claim both
42 Party Realignments 1Definition: sharp, lasting shift in the popular coalition supporting one or both parties occurring during an election or early in a presidential administrationIssues that distinguish the parties change, so supporting voters change for each party.1800: Jeffersonians defeated Federalists1828: Jacksonian Democrats came to power1860: Whigs collapsed; Republicans won (Lincoln)1896: Republicans defeated William Jennings Bryan1932: FDR Democrats came to power
43 Party Realignments 2 Kinds of realignments Major party is so badly defeated that it disappears and new party emerges18001860Parties continue, but voters shift from one party to another18961932
44 Party Realignments 3 Clearest cases of realignment 1860: slavery1896: economics1932: economics1980 not a traditional realignmentDissatisfaction with Carter led to Reagan victory.Also left Congress Democratic
45 Party Realignments 4Major change in 1972—1996: shift in presidential voting patterns in the SouthSouthern whites:fewer Democrats,more Republicans,more independentsSouthern white independents vote Republican.Given votes of independents, southern whites are now close to fifty-fifty Democratic, Republican.In general, party de-alignment, not realignment, because party labels lost meaning for so many voters.
46 Party Decline Fewer people identify with either party. Increase in ticket splitting, which creates divided governmentSeeing the effect of a change from the party-column ballot to the office-bloc ballot
47 Guess which one is the party column ballot and which one is the office bloc ballot. The image is taken from Magruder’s American Government.
48 Effects of Election on Policy 1 Argument: Public policy remains more or less the same no matter which official or party is in office.Depends on the office and the policyVoters must elect numerous officeholders.Parties have a limited ability to build coalitions of officeholders.Winning coalitions may change from policy to policy.
49 Effects of Election on Policy 2 Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in 1945 and 1951.Conclusion: Many American elections do make differences in policy, though constitutional system generally moderates the pace of change.
50 Effects of Election on Policy 3 Why, then, the perception that elections do not matter?Because change alternates with consolidation;most elections are retrospective judgments about the incumbent president and existing congressional majority.