Presentation on theme: "Planning, housing and markets Sarah Monk and Aoife Ni Luanaigh"— Presentation transcript:
1 Planning, housing and markets Sarah Monk and Aoife Ni Luanaigh
2 Planning for housing How much housing is produced through s106? What are the main impacts of s106?Is s106 housing additional?Who pays?Is s106 housing replacing traditional new build by housing associations?Is what is promised through s106 actually delivered?
3 Figure 1:Trends in permissions and completions for ‘S106’
4 Figure 2: Trends in ‘S106 ‘ as proportion of all affordable
5 Main impact? Changing geography of new affordable housing More expensive because on more expensive sites / areasBut meeting mixed communities agenda as most is on-site provisionMost in pressured areas of South but rural affordable housing very problematic
6 Is it additional?Not wholly additional because more expensive sites / areasS106 contribution ‘stretches’ social housing grant – makes schemes viableProvides land in areas where housing associations can’t compete / public land supplies drying up
7 Who pays? In theory landowner pays But on difficult brownfield sites developer may also pay (lose profits)Easiest on high value sitesDeveloper contribution often small proportion of total development valueMarket houses often modified because of s106 – easier to provide small, dense units
8 Is s106 replacing 100% sites?S106 is an increasing proportion of all new affordable housingTime and other resources spent on s106 rather than traditional 100% sitesAppear to have lost traditional sites and cannot get them backUsing public land which would have been non-s016 but now becomes mixed – good for mixed communities but using up assets
9 Main messages from s106 work The case for linking planning and affordable housing is relatively weakBut practical reasons why it works on its own terms – local, hypothecated, housingConcerns about how far it can actually increase output and affordabilityBut it’s the only game in town – so try to make it work better?
10 Main messages from s106 work Anything that replaces it must be able to do more, otherwise no pointHas proved that something thought to be difficult could work – mixed communities – but at a cost? (units getting smaller, social rented being squeezed out)Value for Money message: the apparently easier options to get more (off site, commuted sum) turn out not to work better
11 Related researchS106 policy must be supported by evidence of housing needRecent policy requires understanding whole housing market, demand and not just needNew draft Guidance updated housing needs assessments to include housing marketsMethods on needs assessments more prescriptive to aid consistency
12 Problems and difficulties Understanding housing markets often seen as looking at total stock and demographics to see if ‘in balance’ but market is buyers and sellers and the main indicator is priceSub-regional working in context of planning framework, legal implicationsRelationship between using local surveys and adding them up to sub-regional and regional levels – also use of secondary data
13 Planning for housingRecent post-Barker consultation paper proposes take up of land as trigger to inform planners about how market operatingBarker highlighted land supply as constraint on house building and hence affordabilityBut there are other constraints including infrastructure provision and relative profitability of building more housing in one location
14 Planning and marketsThe key market signals to inform planning policy must be relative pricesBecause planning aims to address market failures, policies should not be made on the basis of the marketBut it is essential that planners understand the market outcomes of their decisions even if that doesn’t change the decision
15 Sub-regional and regional working Regions are identifying sub-regional housing markets – not in a consistent wayAlso undertaking household projections (SEERA) and estimates of future need for social rented housing (SEERA, EERA, GLA)And estimates of future need for key worker and intermediate market housing
16 Key workers and intermediate market Intermediate housing defined as housing below market prices but above social rented – some but not full subsidyNo accepted methodologies so developing a new approachFor key workers and others in the ‘gap’, cannot just add up all those in the income range because they won’t want the productsNor predict from past because lack of supply
17 Key workers and intermediate market For South East, could use SEH to estimate totals in relevant income bandThen use CORE on characteristics of households who entered shared ownershipThen project forward as demographic approachBut shared ownership ‘lost’ to market when move (at least in the past)So had to use gross flows in relevant income/age groups – this produced estimate of 7,000 p.a. (9% of dwellings after social housing overlap)
18 Market Intelligence Toolkit Market Intelligence Reportfor theThames Gateway-South Essex Sub-RegionCambridge Centre for Housing and Planning ResearchDepartment of Land Economy19 Silver StreetCambridgeCB3 9EP
19 Market IntelligenceDeveloped templates for analysing local housing marketsWard, district and sub-regional levelsSocial, economic, demographic and stock information as well as incomes and relative pricesAlso looks at the affordability of different tenures and the ‘gap’ between market and social housing
20 Sub-regional Market Intelligence Sub-regional groupings approximate the geographical extent of the housing marketAssessing housing market across the board feeds into Sustainable Communities agendaProvides a more accurate way for Local Authorities to understand the housing market in their area
21 Benefits of commissioning a Market Intelligence Report Improved understanding of the local housing market enables:appropriate and cost-effective allocation of resourcesbetter forecasting of housing demand and need within an areadevelopment of a suitable mix of dwelling types, adapted to local needsinformational advantage when negotiating housing development with other parties.
22 Why is any of this important? Feeding directly into policyImproving the evidence baseClear links between mixed communities agenda and understanding housing market economicsDifference between outputs and outcomes – often not intended – can be highlighted