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LOGO 2010 to 2011 The Great Recession is Over The Great Recession is Over But We Dont Feel Better Source: University of Michigan.

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Presentation on theme: "LOGO 2010 to 2011 The Great Recession is Over The Great Recession is Over But We Dont Feel Better Source: University of Michigan."— Presentation transcript:

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2 LOGO 2010 to 2011

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4 The Great Recession is Over The Great Recession is Over But We Dont Feel Better Source: University of Michigan

5 Why Dont we Feel Better? Why Dont we Feel Better? 14 million Unemployed Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

6 Distressed Property Sales Still High Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®

7 Price Declines Typical Across the State Source: Virginia Association of REALTORS ®

8 YearUnits SoldAvg List Price Avg Sold Price 2004:18,944$208,186$206, :20,043$241,420$240, :18,543$268,591$265, :15,794$280,034$274, :11,005$277,171$268, : 11,316 $268,806 $232, :10,750$245,388$228, (YTD – September 30, 2011): 8,371$244,638$218,119 Central Virginia Regional MLS Central Virginia Regional MLS Single Family Residential Market

9 A Metro Richmond Comparison A Metro Richmond Comparison Single Family Residential Market AreaUnits SoldAvg LP Avg SP (%Chng) Chesterfield2,518$244,619$227,404 (-5.31%) Hanover: 665$291,098$256,129 (-4.50%) Henrico:1,978$245,735$231,412 ( -8.63%) Richmond:1,396$203,144$202,066 (-0.83%) 2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011 (%Chng) compared to same period 2010 Data Collected October 20, 2011

10 Whats Selling… Whats Selling… …in 2011? Area ( % Sold under): $200,000$300,000$400,000 Chesterfield52.78%78.16%90.59% Hanover: 36.98%71.11%91.32% Henrico:55.46%77.40%87.56% Richmond:62.89%80.23%88.19% CVR MLS Region:57.45%79.69%89.91% Cumulative 2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011 Data Collected October 20, 2011

11 Residential Condominium Market Changes: YTD CVR MLS Region: Sold Units YTD: +4.36%Avg Sold Price YTD: +4.00% Chesterfield: Sold Units YTD: +8.37%Avg Sold Price YTD: % Henrico: Sold Units YTD: +5.47%Avg Sold Price YTD: -0.50% Richmond City: Sold Units YTD: %Avg Sold Price YTD: -3.86% Hanover: (Limited # units) Sold Units YTD: +80%(30 units to 54 units) Avg Sold Price YTD: +0.71% 2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011 (%Chng) compared to same period 2010 Data Collected October 21, 2011

12 County of Chesterfield – City of Richmond October 2010 through September 2011 R E Stats Inc. - *Active Inventory as of October 25, 2011 Inventory and Absorption Single-Family Residential Data Collected October 25, 2011

13 County of Henrico – County of Hanover October 2010 through September 2011 R E Stats Inc. - *Active Inventory as of October 25, 2011 Inventory and Absorption Single-Family Residential Data Collected October 25, 2011

14 : YTD : YTD The Direction Were Heading 1 st Quarter2 nd Quarter3 rd Quarter Pending Units %+0.971%+2.30% Sold Units %-4.358%+3.40% Average Sold Price-8.33%-5.13%-4.80% CVR MLS Region – Single Family 2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011 (%Chng) compared to same period 2010 Thru

15 Economic Outlook Economic Outlook Tomorrow will Look A lot Like Today Paying down debt takes time No quick fix Recoveries after financial crises take much longer Consumers are saving more, but thats not good in the short-run Firms reluctant to hire No need for more workers Cant find workers with the right skills In the next months, expect Moderate growth and a stubbornly high unemployment rates Volatile financial markets Little threat of inflation or rising interest rates

16 The Forecast Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® October 2011 Forecast

17 The Future…Continued Uncertainty Shadow Inventory… How Much is Still Out There? When Will Prices Hit Bottom and Bounce? Whats Up in Washington? Too tight financing requirements, especially for Condo Market, Investors. GSE Reform. MID… Eliminated or Revised come QRM… The End for 30 Year Mortgages? Jobs, Jobs, Jobs… and Consumer Confidence. Recovery… It Needs to FEEL Like Recovery.


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