1. Labour Demand Trends and the Determinants of Unemployment in South Africa 2010 CCMA COMMISSIONERS INDABA Against all Odds Ritz Hotel 2 – 4 December 2010

2. Understanding the post-apartheid Labour Market: Key Messages The key drivers of employment trends since 1995 in the South African labour market Assessing Sectoral and Skills Trends in Employment Have the institutions of human capital changed labour market outcomes? Do institutions and regulations matter?

3. Six Key Labour Market Challenges 1. Race, Gender and Age continue to influence access to employment and earnings 2. Employment Generation of the type since 1994 sectorally uneven 3. The Skills Mismatch between Labour Demand and Supply Continues Unabated 4. The Institutional and Regulatory Environment Remains Critical 5. The Spatial Dimension to Employment Creation is Critical 6. The Quality of Higher Education Remains a Significant Constraint

4. Challenge 1: Race, Gender and Age continue to dominate labour market outcomes: Pr (Employment) Results 1995,2001, 2009

5. Challenge 1: Race, Gender and Age continue to dominate labour market outcomes: Earnings Function Estimates 1995, 2001, 2007

6. Challenge 2: Employment Generation of the type since 1994, sectorally uneven Employment Growth by Sector, 1994-2009 (000s)

7. Challenge 2: Employment Generation of the type since 1994, sectorally uneven Financial & Business Services Revisited Outline labour recruitment and provision of staff; activities of employment agencies and recruiting organisations; hiring out of workers (labour broking activities); Investigation and security activities;

8. Challenge 2: Employment Generation of the type since 1994, sectorally uneven Wholesale & Retail Trade Revisited….. Outline

9. Challenge 3: The Skills Mismatch between Labour Demand and Supply Continues Unabated : Aggregate Employment, by Education Level (% Change)

10. Challenge 3: The Skills Mismatch between Labour Demand and Supply Continues Unabated Skilled-Unskilled Relative Wages and Employment, 2001-2007

11. Challenge 4: The Institutional and Regulatory Environment Remains Critical: Union Wage Gap Estimates Across the Earnings Distribution, 2001 and 2007

12. Challenge 4: The Institutional and Regulatory Environment Remains Critical: Employment Rigidity: Cross Country Percentile Distribution and South Africa, 2010

13. Challenge 5: The Spatial Dimension to Employment Creation is Critical Mean Transport Expenditure % of Household Expenditure, By Mode of Transport

14. Challenge 6: The Quality of Higher Education Remains a Significant Constraint : Probability of finding employment: Results from a Sample of HEI Attendees Dependent variable: Probability of employment x-bar Marginal effects IIIIIIIV Individual characteristics Graduated 0,5368 0,00370,0007 0,0084 -0,0002 African 0,5692 -0,2811**-0,2865** --- -0,2666** Coloured 0,1188 -0,0713-0,0607 --- -0,0741 Indian/Asian 0,0235 0,06390,0903 --- 0,0826 Female 0,5437 -0,1681**-0,1650** -0,1658** -0,1568 HBI 0,6376 0,0423--- 0,0454** Technikon 0,5657 0,0719*0,0708* 0,0594* 0,0636* Degree qualification 0,5288 0,03300,0366 0,0307 0,0221 Africans from HBIs 0,4241--- -0,2248**--- Africans from HWIs 0,1451--- -0,2647**--- Coloureds from HBIs0,0602 --- 0,0324--- Coloureds from HWIs0,0587 --- -0,0505--- Indians/Asians from HWIs 0,0148 --- 0,1003--- Other from HBIs0,1533 --- 0,1164--- Humanities 0,2921 -0,0265-0,0190 -0,0274 --- Education 0,0931 0,2145**0,2168** 0,2127** --- Commerce 0,1962 0,05200,0540 0,0554 --- Other field 0,1195 0,06420,0724 0,0641 --- Mathematics scores in Matriculation 2,3807 0,0251**0,0243** 0,0260** 0,0275** Used social network 0,2966 0,02320,0253 0,0199 0,0318 26-35 0,3663 0,0688**0,0678** 0,0672** 0,0878** 36-45 0,0803 0,1991**0,2018** 0,01995** 0,2487** 46-55 0,01710,1854** 0,1882** 0,1845**0,2295** Notes: 1. *Significant at the 1% level. **Significant at the 5% level. ***Significant at the 10% level. 2. Provincial controls were included but are not shown in the table.

15. Recommendations: Four Microeconomic Policy Options Three New Options for Growing the Informal Sector Public Sector Procurement Short-Term Insurance FDIs and the Informal Sector Loan Book Public and Private Employment Services: Reducing Information Asymmetries in the Labour Market New Measures to Support the Unemployed Conditional Cash Transfers and the Training Layoff Scheme A Transport Voucher Scheme to reduce transaction costs of spatial disparities A wage subsidy cum employment generation for young, African female workers Labour Regulation at the Margin Fix the Institutions of the Labour Market (LCs; LACs) Probation and Pre-Dismissal Procedures of the LRA

16. Conclusions Are we Going through a new policy revolution? Training Layoffs to stay? Skills Under a New Regime DoLs Renewed Focus Old Macroeconomic Debates are back in the arena (Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate, Fiscal Policy and Pump-priming…….) A New (Old-Style) Industrial Policy? Trying some new ideas? The insertion of the informal economy into all facets of industrial policy A re-fashioned UI Scheme? Political Economy Issues and revisiting the social compact? Lest we Forget: Understating the relevance of Financial & Business services in employment and output growth? Growth Path and Labour market Outcomes are inextricably linked