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© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Webinar | 11 & 12 July 2012 Bonds and climate change The state of the market in 2012
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Investor interest in the links between bonds and climate change is growing Research to provide a first estimate of value of outstanding bonds linked to climate solutions The estimated value of bonds aligned to climate themes is more than 24 times the current supply of green bonds from development banks Transport and energy account for 85% of the total, largely rail and renewables Europe is the largest issuer – but the USA is the most innovative with renewable project bonds and energy efficiency bonds Further market growth can be accelerated through standardisation, aggregation and policy support A $174bn global universe 2
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Background In 2011 in Durban, a large group of insurers called for: a significant increase in global bond issuance to be dedicated to finance for an acceleration of the transition to low-carbon growth Aim of this report: Provide a first estimate of the extent to which the current bond universe is geared towards the climate economy Commissioned by HSBC and written by CBI Goes beyond MDB issuance of green bonds
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Answers 4 key questions: – How big is the climate-themed bond market? – What are the key investment themes? – Where are the main regional markets? – What is the market outlook? Why is it important? – Overcome perception of niche market – Prove that investment area is nothing new, purpose is different – Show how the universe is diverse: ratings, geographies, sectors Background
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 First bonds issued with an explicit green mandate in 2007 Investor interest in the links between bonds and climate change is growing $10tn in cumulative investment in low-carbon energy required 2010-2020 Bonds are well-suited for long-term infrastructure investments required for a low- carbon, climate resilient economy – High capex, low running cost – Strength of climate policies in some regions leading to rapid cost reductions in wind, solar = more mature and stable market suited to bonds, like rail Recapitalisation pressure / Basel III discouraging banks from holding longer-term debt. Using debt capital markets frees up bank capital for project lending Why bonds and climate change
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Methodology – 7 key climate themes Energy Renewable energy, nuclear, biomass for heat & electricity Buildings & industry Techn & projects to improve energy efficiency of buildings & industry Transport CO2 efficient transport, rail, EVs, biofuels Finance Green-labelled MDB programs, transport finance Water Sustainable water mgmt, techn, infrastructure Waste & pollution control Recycling services/ products, emissions reduction equip Agriculture & Forestry Paper & wood, forest mgmt, organic seeds & fertilizers
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Methodology Total corporate & municipal bond universe 2005 cut off Potential thematic universe Thematic Bond universe Individual screen Cross check Thematic screen Strongly aligned Conditional Include MDBs and missing companies from other lists Fully aligned Weakly aligned
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Bond universes Thematic Bond universe Strongly aligned Conditionally aligned Fully aligned bonds 100% revenue dedicated to climate themes OR 100% generation capacity + Municipal bonds + MDB green bonds + project bonds Bonds linked to activities either where data is unavailable (e.g. biofuel feedstock) OR where there is currently a lack of definitional clarity (e.g. water utility) >50% revenue exposure to climate themes OR > 50% generation capacity
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Results: overall $174bn Fully aligned $204bn Strongly aligned $375bn Conditionally aligned Revenue > 50% Revenue = 100% 100% conditional activities
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Thematic breakdown: Fully aligned $174bn Fully aligned
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Thematic analysis Energy $29bn: Wind 38%, solar 28%, hydro 21%, other renewables 10%, nuclear 3%. Transport $119bn: Almost all rail bonds Buildings & Industry $1.5bn: Majority LED firms and US municipal Qualified Energy Conservation Bond (QECB) Waste &pollution $1.2bn: Mostly recycling services Agriculture & forestry $734m: Includes sustainable timber/paper and organic seed/ fertilizers Finance $22.4bn: Dominated by MDBs and Eurofima Water: No fully aligned bonds, $196B conditional
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 $40.4 bn $30.4 bn $14.2 bn $6.6 bn $27.6 bn $ 6.1bn $6.7 bn ROW $25.2 bn Geographic split
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Europe accounts for two-thirds, dominated by rail –Focus on credit-enhancing infrastructure bonds –Power utilities linking issuance –Potential for energy efficiency bonds: UK Green Deal USA: project & municipal bond leadership –Large issuances (>0.5bn) from: Topaz Solar; Genesis Solar; Desert Sunlight; Alta Wind; Shepherds Flat –California potential for water bonds Japan: a key source of demand –USD1bn of fully-aligned bonds compared to USD52bn of strongly aligned (hydro, nuclear) –Demand from Uridashi market (World Bank bonds) –Future potential for renewable bonds with new Enerkan Europe, USA & Japan 13
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 China: Renewables contributed 80% –Wind and solar corporate issuance increased x4 in past year –Pilot municipal issuance could be linked to low-carbon cities: Brazil: potential expansion ahead –National development bank, BNDES, at forefront of climate financing –REDD bonds remain a possibility South Korea: green growth –Low issuance to date of climate-themed bonds –Growth through Green Growth plan w –Incentives for bonds with >60% of capital towards certified firms/projects Emerging Economies: China, Brazil, South Korea 14
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Potential areas for growth $174 Billion Fully aligned $174bn Current Fully aligned universe $163bn Waste $197bn Water $130bn Energy $665bn
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 Water utilities – Classifying energy-intensive water utilities – Identifying flood control integrated water management – Understanding best available technologies (BAT) – Understanding/measuring efficient water provision Waste – Clearer disclosure on use of different waste disposal techniques – Understanding of carbon footprint of WTE vs Landfill Challenges and areas for more work
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 The existing market is a lot broader and deeper than anyone thought. It will grow; but we need to accelerate it. That means: 1. Standardization (commoditization makes it easier for investors) Key priorities: Waste and water sectors 2. Aggregate for scale Scale is necessary to tap the institutional investor market Currently, there are only 103 bonds over the $500m threshold 3. Support to get investment-grade ratings Add scale & liquidity with public climate-themed bonds (eg Australia CEFC) Provide fiscal support (eg US clean energy bonds) Use public finance to enhance credit (eg EU project bond initiative) The funds are there and theres even a nascent market. We now need to generate deals that suit the needs of bond buyers Conclusions and way forward
© Climate Bonds Initiative June 2013 www.climatebonds.net email@example.com
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