Yanze Xie May Zeineldin Ujjwala Darvemula Vitaliy Dorogan
What is the product ? Large grain polysilicon thin film Solar cell Other possibilities ?
What competitive advantage do we have ? If solar cell is the product: Low cost High efficiency
Polysilicon Market Assessment Polysilicon Semiconductor industry Photovoltaic Industry (solar cells) MEMS devices Thin film Transistors Customer Government Users
Little bit of history Polysilicon suppliers ===Semiconductor industry Stable supply chain for 40 years Polysilicon proposition was higher than demand =low price Photovoltaic industry emerges =demand increases 2004 - Semiconductor polysilicon demand up 15% and Photovoltaic polysilicon demand up 45% resulted in shortage of polysilicon on the market Polysilicon price grew from $30 per kg in 2004 to $80-100 per kg in 2006
Existing polysilicon producers have announced plans to invest $5 billion to construct new production facilities over the next 5 years New companies employing technological variations of existing technology have announced investments of $4.4 billion in new facilities over the next 5 years New companies employing new technologies have announced plans to invest $1.1 billion over the next 5 years 2006 Announcements http://www.solarinsights.com/summary.htm
Polysilicon Supply vs Demand Forecast Scenarios of PV industry growth:(1) Moderate growth 32%, (2) Anticipated growth 42%, (3) Accelerated growth 46%. http://www.solarinsights.com/summary.htm
Solar cells convert the solar energy to electrical energy through the Photovoltaic phenomenon. The photovoltaic phenomenon occurs when light incident on a material liberates electrons from their orbit. Electrons are free to move and constitute an electric current Solar cells are used in arrays to satisfy voltage and/or current requirements which can not be achieved using a single solar cell. Home Power Magazine Solar Wind Water Design Build.mht March,12,2008
There are three types of crystalline solar cells: - Single-crystal silicon. - Polycrystalline silicon. - Gallium Arsenide. polycrystalline silicon solar cells produce slightly lower efficiencies (highest reported efficiency for polycrystalline silicon is 20.3% vs 24.7% for single crystalline silicon). However they are cheaper and stronger and therefore can be made thinner.
Gallium Arsenide solar cells have higher efficiencies (25.1%) but high fabrication costs. Limited to smaller scale systems. The available technology facilitates the mass production of polycrystalline silicon solar cells in comparison to Gallium Arsenide solar cells.
Small grain boundaries limits the efficiency of polycrystalline silicon solar cells. The invented technique fabricates large grain polycrystalline silicon which will increase the efficiency. The invented technique occurs at low temperature. The increase in efficiency does not involve the increase in price.
Oil prices are increasing creates a rise in the demand for renewable energy sources. Profit from solar cells can be explained by the fact that solar cells have no running cost. Solar cells generate enough revenue to match their installation cost in approximately 3 to 4 years Solar cells have a lifespan of around 25 years.
The current cost of solar cells it averages at about 5 dollars per peak watt. The cost of the auxiliary devices such as batteries,etc. when included the price becomes 10-15 dollars per peak watt. In September 2007 Colorado State University reported solar panels for as less as $1 per watt.
1-Large Scale Power Generation www.rise.org.au/dist/ March,12,2008
The global market for solar cells is expected to increase from $12,908.8 million in 2007 to $32,252.3 million in 2012 (a compound annual growth rate of 14.9% ). The percentage of the solar cells market designated to silicon is 89 % in 2007 dropping slightly to a significant 79% by 2013.
FPD market space -Introduction & market context; -Size and growth. Technology matches to the market -Perfective; -Continuous ; -Immediate.
FPD is both product and technology Main technologies include -Liquid-crystal display (LCD); -Organic light-emitting diode display (OLED); -Plasma display panel (PDP). Customer of TFT are LCD &OLED Customer of the new technology is TFT Market of our product = market of LCD &OLED
FPD grew slowly starting from early last decade Cathode ray tube (CRT) had been leading the market 2005 saw the first time surpassing, and account for > 50% overall display market Prospective market analysis are positive Almost all large-area FPD manufacturing is in Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and more recently China
Historical research shown an increase of TFT-LCD industry in the last decade From 0 in 1992, Taiwan industry value had reached $2 billion in 2000. Promotion of TFT-LCD industry, value increase in last decade. (http://www.itri.org.tw/eng/research/cno/re-cno-b003.jsp update to 1/18/2008)
Same growing paced by world wide market Figure right: 25% grow rate on FPD market was prospected Growth confirmed by report from micro- magazine: 80% of FPD market is owned by LCD, by the year 2007 Scale and prospects of the global FPD product market. (http://www.itri.org.tw/eng/news/commentary-show.jsp)
Another top customer for TFT is OLED Spent years to catch up with LCD, finally close the distance Market forecasts was $520m according to iSuppli, $491m to DisplaySearch 2005; or about 10% growth over 2004 Figure left-prospect for ww OLED market Prospect for the worldwide OLED panel market, 2004-2012. (iSuppli Corp, Organic Light-Emitting Diode Displays, 1H 2006)
This figure provide a clear look of OLED market sharing The clear leader of OLED market in 2005 -Taiwan (27m units) -Korea (22m units) -Japan (8m units) Quartered-year look at OLED market share. http://fantasticplastic.org/2006/02/28/
Active-matrix LCD (AMLCD) dominates the LCD segment, which has 80% of FPD market In AM-LCD, each pixel is controlled by its own transistor switch Traditional fabs these switches on a-Si film Polysilicon TFT advances of a-Si TFT, see right table http://nina.ecse.rpi.edu/tft/research_summary/sld021.htm
OLED is advanced of LCD most fundamentally by looking great, image right is OLED in 2005 OLED no need backlight making thinner, so more applications Operating speed 100 times higher than LCD All made possible by using 2-5 TFT per pixel - exponential need Samsung Developed 21" OLED Panel for Digital TV in 2005. (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php)
FPD has extremely competitive and price sensitive market update Cost control involve most material reduction – units cost and processing Major strategy planed to focused on technology of LCD and FPD advancement A successive low temperature polysilicon (LTPS) process would achieve FPD significant advantage.
Successive LTPS process would - Lead to transistor fabs ~100 folded mobility than a-Si TFT; - Allow smaller TFTs and higher aperture ration; - Enable the direct integration of LCD driver circuits onto the substrate and lowe costs; - Lead to higher luminance and contrast Variety more other LCD applications: notebook and desktop PCs monitors, cell phones, etc.
eed.gsfc.nasa.gov/562/SA_MEMs.htm eed.gsfc.nasa.gov/562/SA_MEMs.htm, ma