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1 MBAX 6100 Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management Feasibility Plan – Parts I & II Auntie Carlas Frozen Bread Dough March 20, 2007 Carla Ooyen.

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Presentation on theme: "1 MBAX 6100 Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management Feasibility Plan – Parts I & II Auntie Carlas Frozen Bread Dough March 20, 2007 Carla Ooyen."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 MBAX 6100 Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management Feasibility Plan – Parts I & II Auntie Carlas Frozen Bread Dough March 20, 2007 Carla Ooyen & Masashi Tsuchiya

2 2 Product Concept Frozen Premium Bread Dough The premium quality, flavor, and smell of homemade artisan bread without the hassle of mixing, kneading and forming the dough. Premium quality bread dough sold in the freezer section. At home, the consume thaws, rises, and bakes. Product will be made of natural or organic ingredients Manufacturing will use old dough techniques for premium flavor May offer unusual, specialty or holiday selections such as panettone, stollen, or Greek Easter bread May sell in an oven-safe, recyclable container for added baking convenience

3 3 Market value projections in billions of $ $10.50$11.10$11.40$11.70$12.00$11.40$11.20 $11.40$11.50 Market value of all Bread and Roll retail sales in the World 1 $145.7 billion in 2004 (2.4% growth in the past five years) Market value of all Bread and Roll retail sales in the United States 2 $13.5 billion in 2006 (1.3% growth in the past five years) $14.1 billion projected by 2011 Downturn in 2004 due to low-carb diet trend, but market rebounding by 2005 Rhodes International reported in 2006 that sales of Rhodes frozen white bread dough are increasing at 8% annually. 3 Bread market hit bottom in May 2004, demand is stronger now. Vice president of HomAde Foods agrees sales of st quarter have increased. 4 The U.S. governments release of the revised food pyramid is reminding consumers of the importance of whole grains in their diet. 5 Market for bread and related products has been and is expected to continue to be almost flat for the next few years. 6 (Difference in figures from other market size data is due to different source of data) Market Analysis – Size and Growth

4 4 Market Analysis - Trends Increasing gourmet premium market According to Fortune magazine 7, a gourmet bakery in Paris, Poilane, sells about $18 million annually, to 50 different countries, to celebrities like Robert De Niro and Steven Spielberg, and to three star French chef Alaim Ducasse, who buys 5000 metric tons per year. Long distance distribution is done within 24 to 48 hours by FedEx, with price ranging from $10 in Paris to $47 in the U.S. Artisan bread market is increasing By 2003 sales of premium breads totaled $933 million, or 16 percent of all bread sales, and were continuing to climb 8 Artisan and specialty bread sales have increased 23% from 1998 to Specialty breads add cachet. People are looking for more sophisticated flavors 10 Increasing need for convenience Experts interviewed all agreed that consumers of natural & organic products were looking for more convenience Rhodes advertises convenience: They are both freezer-to-oven rolls that come in a re-sealable laminate bag. They thaw, rise and bake in 30 minutes 11

5 5 Increasing market for healthy foods Organic food is increasingly popular. (Bread) is not surging quite as aggressively as other organic segments, its showing respectable growth. 12 The consensus of the experts interviewed was that the Organic market is continuing to grow. 13 Anti-allergy food (non sugar, gluten free, etc) is increasingly popular. Gluten free, sugar free, allergy free bread will sell. 14 Whole grain bread is increasingly popular. Whole grain bread market was slow in 2000 to 2003, however in 2004 sales increased 3.3% from previous years sales. 15 In 2005, 73 new products were introduced with specialty grains such as spelt, buckwheat, kamut, quinoa, and pearl barley. 16 In 2006, wellness will again be one of the industrys top influences; the relationship between health and food has become big business….the comeback of carbs will add fuel to the growing interest in breads 17 Young mothers want to feed their babies better food. 18 People are looking for natural version of everyday products. 19 Market Analysis - Trends

6 6 Industrial Bread and Artisan bread Industrial bread Mass produced bread Mainly white bread Frozen dough available Artisan Bread Bakery made rather than mass production Premium gourmet bread Organic, Sugar free, Gluten free, Allergy free No frozen dough available World Bread and Roll market in Europe: $95.3 billion with artisan bread having a 60% share The U.S: $13.1 billion with artisan bread having a 12% share Asia-Pacific: $12.8 billion with artisan bread having a 30.5% share Japan: $5.6 billion in 2006, which is about 48% of Asia-Pacific market, with artisan bread having a 20% share India: $1.5 billion in 2006 China: $1.1 billion in 2006 Market Value of the U.S. Bread, Roll and Bun dough retail sales (Excluding in-store use such as restaurant) 21 Refrigerated market = $252.4 million in 2003 Frozen market = $443.0 Million in 2003 Market Analysis – Market Segmentation

7 7 Demographic 1: Bread consumer consumption of bread in Penetration rate is more than 95% across all following segments Number of loaves consumed weekly 45% of buyers purchase 1 loaf per week 31% of buyers purchase 2 loaves per week 12% of buyers purchase 3 loaves per week Percentage of users by age group: 21% are 35 to 44 19% are 45 to 54 19% are 25 to 34 13% are 18 to 24 12% are 55 to 64 Bread consumers by gender: 52% of buyers are Female 48% of buyers are Male Percentage of users by race/ethnic origin: 72% are White/non Hispanic 12% are Black 12% are Hispanic 4% are Asian Bread consumption by region: 36% live in the South 23% live in the Midwest 22% live in the West 19% live in the Northeast Market Analysis – Demographics

8 8 Demographics 2: White bread and Whole Grain bread 23 White bread buyers tend to be: Spanish, Hispanic Young 18 to 34 years old High school graduates With children Live in a rented property Whole grain bread buyers tend to be: 55 years or older College or Graduate school graduates Retired No children Live in own home Market Analysis – Demographics

9 9 Little growth in the bread market: currently between -3% to 3% per year Raw material supply Weather issues such as a drought could cause a raw ingredient shortage. Possible insufficient ingredient supply. The demand for organic products is increasing faster than the supply of raw ingredients. 24 Economic downturns reduce the demand for premium products. Market Analysis – Threats

10 10 Market Analysis - Market Structure Retail route (major route) Manufacturer (finished bread or dough) Wholesaler Retailer (sometimes bake from dough) Consumer In-store use Manufacturer (finished bread or dough) Wholesaler Restaurant, Café, Sandwich shop, etc.(sometimes bake from dough) Consumer Own-production (Bakery) Manufacturer = Retailer (all process by retailer) Consumer

11 11 Opportunity Market trend for premium bread needs Huge world market for bread – export opportunity Higher share of artisan bread in Europe and Japan (than in the US) Ocean freight = about $0.30/loaf 25 Niches No premium frozen bread dough in current bread market Jason Vincent, Category Manager - Frozen Foods for Wild Oats, feels that there is a need for natural/organic frozen bread dough and is surprised that no one has yet entered that niche. The long shelf life is a key attractive characteristic. He feels the market is probably 2 to 3 units per week per store. Adam Schneider, natural food broker, indicated that he could sell the hell out of a par-baked frozen bread product. Increasing market segment for premium bread. Internet e-commerce Other form of direct sales to consumers Export opportunity Market Analysis – Opportunities & Niches Market Analysis – New Distribution Channels

12 12 Market Analysis - Conclusion Feasible, there is a niche! No direct competitors – no premium frozen bread dough manufactures exist currently. Consumer interest is favorable - Increasing demand for healthy foods such as organic. Consumers are looking for natural substitutes for everyday products. Growth opportunity - The U.S. share for artisan bread is lower than most other developed countries. As people get more health conscious and taste sensitive, the market will grow. Export opportunity - Europe accounts for about 64% of world bread market. Japan accounts for about 48% of Asia-Pacific bread market. Both countries with higher artisan bread share than U.S.

13 13 Competitive Analysis – Industry Structure Carrying Capacity The bread industry is fairly slow growth (see Market Analysis section). Frozen food section of grocery stores is limited in size. Securing space for a new product means that an existing product looses space (or is no longer carried). Must have a niche product that fills a customer need. Frozen premium bread dough could gain space by fulfilling an unmet need. 26 Degree of Stability Fairly stable demand for bread from year to year. A staple of most peoples diets. Seasonal variations in demand. Higher demand near holidays, such as Thanksgiving, Christmas, Easter and Mothers Day. 27 Diet trends, such as the Atkins low carb craze in the early 2000s, can have a serious negative effect. Complexity Grocery industry generally requires working with suppliers, distributors, brokers, and retailers. For local market entry, it is sometimes possible to avoid working with distributors or brokers. 28 Selling in food service chain to restaurants would require same chain as grocery industry unless sales market is only local. Obtaining necessary health department and FDA approval can be complicated. Industry Evolution Bread industry as a whole is mature. Organic food segment is in the later stages of the high growth phase. Retailers are starting to see me-too products rather than new innovations. 29 Organic growth opportunities are tied to convenience and replication of traditional (not-so- healthy) products.

14 14 Competitive Analysis – Barriers to Entry Economies of Scale Large manufacturers Receive discounts for buying ingredients in large volume. Power to affect supplier costs. Marketing budgets are larger. Profits of large volume products can help support marketing and sales of lower volume or introductory products. Entry level companies Lack of volume equates to higher ingredient costs. Marketing costs cannot be spread over product line. Customer Loyalty Because there is currently no retail frozen premium bread dough, customers would currently have no brand to be loyal to. First entry advantage might deter customers from switching brands if a new competitor entered the market. If a known baked bread brand, such as Rudis, were to enter the market, customers would be more likely to buy known over unknown. Loyalty to baked breads brand could deter customers from switching to frozen dough option. Proprietary Recipes – competitors may not be able to replicate that customer-winning flavor.

15 15 Competitive Analysis – Barriers to Entry Capital Requirements Building a manufacturing facility from scratch is costly. For example, a 18x24x12 freezer space would cost about $90K for parts and installation. 30 Copackaging agreements with licensed manufacturers are a means of avoiding the necessity to build a factory. Unused capacity can be rented from manufacturers or restaurateurs (approximately $10 to $14/hour). 31 This is a low capital way for a small company to test the business concept without major investment. Cold storage facilities, such as Atlas Cold Storage, offer storage and inventory management, thus reducing the need for on-site freezer space. Cold storage freight services alleviate need for company purchase of refrigerated truck fleet. Access to distribution channels Must convince retailers and distributors to carry your product. They may not be interested in dealing with small manufacturers. Do not have direct access to customer if using standard distribution channels. Government Regulation Must follow state and local Department of Health commercial food safety requirements (cant start a food business in your garage). Must register with the FDA and follow food labeling guidelines. 32

16 16 Competitive Analysis – Degree of Rivalry Price point issues Variety of entrants in bread market means that price comparison is inevitable. Premium, natural, and organic breads generally sell in the range of $3-$5 for a 1 pound loaf of bread. If frozen bread dough is priced significantly above baked options, consumers will substitute. Rivalry is somewhat friendly. Competitors provide coupons and promotions to encourage consumers to purchase their produce, but price wars are not an issue. Big manufacturers, such as Pillsbury or Wonder, that have the power to squish competition wouldnt be interested in a small niche market like frozen premium bread dough.

17 17 Competitive Analysis – Major Competitors There are no direct competitors in the premium frozen bread dough category, so we focus on indirect competitors. Key indirect competitors include: Frozen traditional bread dough Rhodes International - frozen loaves in white or wheat. The white bread compares to a traditional sandwich loaf – little flavor, soft texture. Frozen pre-baked traditional Pillsbury Oven Baked Crusty French Mini Loaves – a household brand name producing an extremely average convenience bread product. Frozen pre-baked natural or organic Alexia - frozen baked artisan bread rolls. Known for producing a quality product. Fresh natural or organic Rudis Organic Bakery – produces a wide array of certified organic breads, primarily sandwich style. Grocery bakeries Grocery bakeries produce a large variety of fresh baked breads of varying qualities. Natural food grocers generally produce a higher quality product. See the Competition Matrix in Appendix 2 for a detailed comparison of competitors. Possible Future Competitors: Current baked bread manufacturers could easily produce a frozen dough product. Its really just a matter of making slight modifications to production and packaging. Food service companies, such as Bridgford, Ralcorp Frozen Bakery Products, and Richs, produce frozen dough or par-baked bread and could fairly easily offer a retail product.

18 18 Competitive Analysis - Competitor Self Perception Rhodes Bake-N-Serv 33 Enjoy hot, homemade quality white bread fresh from your own oven. Available in three or five loaves per package. Just thaw, let rise, & bake! Family owned company committed to quality Rudis Organic Bakery 34 Our Mission is to be the leading manufacturer and supplier of branded certified organic breads. We are dedicated to the highest standards of quality, taste, packaging and communications. We are committed to the families we serve and look to bring warmth, sincerity, joy and a higher quality of life to our people, our customers and the world. Alexia 35 Alexia ® Foods, Inc. produces a full line of 100% all natural, trans fat free, premium frozen products for the oven, microwave or fryer that deliver outstanding gourmet flavor from freezer to table in just minutes. Convenient and versatile, Alexia Artisan Breads bake up beautifully and complement any dish.

19 19 Competitive Analysis – Basis of Competition Convenience vs. Quality Shelf bread is part of a weekly shopping trip. Sacrifice freshness and quality for a product that will easily last a week. Frozen (pre or par baked) bread products offer the convenience of fresh baked bread without an immediate trip to the store. Sacrifice immediate use, and sometimes flavor, for a product with a longer life. Fresh bakery products come in 2 categories: Cheap and not so tasty. Good if you are already making a quick trip to the store. Higher quality products may have a very good artisan flavor, but freshness deteriorates quickly and an on- demand trip to the store is required. Frozen bread dough requires some planning, but allows one to make fresh bread without the hassle of mixing, kneading, or forming, and no on-demand store trip is required. Premium frozen bread dough offers high quality ingredients and flavor and medium convenience. The level of convenience is tied closely to ones proximity to a store (rural populations). Reputation – For big industry players, like Rudis or Rhodes, their reputation is a key competitive factor. Consumers will try product based on name alone. New ventures do not have brand recognition Specialty – Offering specialty products, such as gluten free or vegetarian, is a key competitive factor for many small bread makers.

20 20 Competitive Analysis – Control over Prices, Costs, & Channels Prices Consumers know what bread costs. Limited ability to charge a premium price. Consumers are highly unlikely to buy bread that cost more than $5 a loaf, based on what is already competitively available. Costs A start-up is going to have a difficult time getting price breaks from suppliers. With the relative shortage of natural and organic ingredients, suppliers have a fair amount of power. Conversely, some market factors have made standard ingredients more expensive, which means there is less marginal cost to going organic. For example, due to natural disasters, regular sugar is currently only slightly cheaper than organic sugar (40¢/lb. vs. 50¢/lb.). 36 Channels of Distribution Large grocery chains require distributor relationships. Introduction in local stores can provide a means for bypassing the distributor. Internet sales could be a creative means of connecting directly to retail customers. Competitive Analysis – Market Domination No direct competitor Many small businesses in the natural and organic bread market In the Frozen Bread/Rolls/Pastry Dough category, Rhodes International has 40% market share, Homade Foods Inc. has 44% and General Mills (including Pillsbury) has 10%. 37

21 21 Competitive Analysis – Conclusion Bread manufacturers are not currently addressing the market niche for premium frozen bread dough. Existing indirect competitors could enter this niche market fairly easily if they wanted. Future competitors, such as food service companies, could also enter this niche. Market size is small so there is little incentive for large companies to enter the market. There is a market opportunity for premium frozen bread dough, and currently no direct competition, but there is no barrier for future entry.

22 22 Endnotes 1 Global - Bread and Rolls, Datamonitor industry market research, October 31, Japan – Bread and Rolls, Datamonitor industry market research, December 1, D. Gail Fleenor, Rising Sales: The Comfort and Aroma of Home-Baked Bread, Rolls, and Biscuits are Available From a Wide Array of Tasty, Convenient Items in the Freezer Aisle, Frozen Food Age, December Vol.55, p18. 4 Renee M Covino, Bread is Back: Oh What a Difference a Year--and the Return to Balanced Eating--Makes on the Frozen Bread/Dough Category, Frozen Food Age, April 2005, Vol.53, p28. 5 Baby Boomers and the U.S. Food and Beverage Industry, December 2005, p95. 6 Market Trends: Fresh Bread and Related Products, August 2004, p2, p9 7 Tom Sancton, Fortune magazine, Jun 22, 2007, Vol.115, p157 8 Bread, Cake, and related products Encyclopedia of American Industries. Online Edition, Thomson Gale, Market Trends: Fresh Bread and Related Products, August 2004, p7 10 Market Trends: Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook, February 2006, p Baby Boomers and the U.S. Food and Beverage Industry, December 2005, p83 12 See Call Reports - Lind Iggi, Jason Vincent, and Scott Roy 13 See Call Report - Tom, Vitamin Cottage 14 The U.S. Market for Whole Grain and High Fiber Foods, April Market Trends: Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook, February 2006, p Market Trends: Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook, February 2006, p21 17 See Call Report - Adam Schneider 18 See Call Reports - Adam Schneider, Jason Vincent 19 Renee M Covino, Bread and Dough for a Crisp Fall: Get Customers Ready for the Autumn Baking Season with More Frozen Bread, Dough and Rolls--Now Highlighted with Extra Health and Convenience, Frozen Food Age, June 2006, Vol.54, p24 20 Market Trends: Fresh Bread and Related Products, August 2004, p61.

23 23 Endnotes 21 Simmons Market Research Bureau, Study of Media and Markets Fall Global – Bread and Rolls, Datamonitor industry market research, October 31, Market Trends: Convenience Home Baking Products, February 2004, pp See Call Report - Jason Vincent 25 See Call Report - Mr. Sato 26 See Call Report - Jason Vincent 27 Frozen Dough Handbook, Volume 61, p10, Rhodes International Inc. 28 See Call Report – Scott Roy 29 See Call Report - Jason Vincent 30 See Call Report – Scott Roy 31 See Call Report – Lind Iggi See Call Report – Scott Roy 37 Market Trends: Convenience Home Baking Products, p51, February 2004.

24 MBAX 6100 Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management Feasibility Plan – Part III Auntie Carlas Frozen Bread Dough April 24, 2007 Carla Ooyen & Masashi Tsuchiya

25 25 Size and Growth Market size of all Bread and Roll in the United States is more than $10 billion. Low future growth rate. Details as follows; Increasing gourmet premium market Artisan bread market is increasing By 2003 sales of premium breads in the United States are about 16 percent of all bread sales, and continue to increase. 1 Artisan and specialty bread sales have increased 23% from 1998 to Specialty breads add cachet People are looking for more sophisticated flavors 3 Increasing market for healthy foods Organic food is increasingly popular. Anti-allergy food (non sugar, gluten free, etc) is increasingly popular. Whole grain bread is increasingly popular. Young mothers want to feed their babies better food. 4 People are looking for natural version of everyday products. 5 Market Analysis Summary – Market Trends Market value projections in billions of $ (source: Market Trend, Fresh Bread and related products, August 2004, p2 and 9) $10.50$11.10$11.40$11.70$12.00$11.40$11.20 $11.40$11.50

26 26 Segmentation Industrial Bread (mass produced, mainly white bread) Artisan Bread (bakery made, premium gourmet, organic, natural, etc) Bread penetration rate is more than 95% 6 Typical whole grain bread consumer: 55 years or older, College graduate or higher education, retired, no children, and homeowner Market Threats Little growth in bread market. Raw material supply – weather issues or surge in organic ingredient demand could cause supply shortage Economic downturns reduces the demand for premium products. Market structure Retail route : majority of bread products Manufacture Wholesaler Retailer Consumer In store use : Manufacture Wholesaler Restaurant/Cafe Consumer Own Production : Bakery Manufacture/Retailer Consumer Market Analysis Summary

27 27 Market Analysis Summary – Opportunity and Niches Opportunity Increasing market trend for premium artisan bread Huge world market (opportunity for export) Niches No premium frozen bread dough in current bread market. New Distribution channel Internet e-commerce Other form of direct sales to consumers Export opportunity

28 28 Competitive Analysis Summary Industry Structure Carrying Capacity - limited space in the frozen food section, must find a niche Degree of Stability - Fairly stable year-to-year demand. Diet trends can have a serious negative effect Complexity - have to work with suppliers, distributors, brokers, and retailers. Industry Evolution Organic food segment is in the later stages of the high growth phase. Retailers are starting to see me- too products rather than new innovations. 7 Organic growth opportunities are tied to convenience and replication of traditional products. Barriers to Entry Economies of Scale – large manufacturers can get volume discounts Customer loyalty to existing brands Capital Requirements – must secure necessary product space & equipment Distribution Access - Must convince retailers and distributors to carry your product Government Regulation – must meet State Department of Health & FDA requirements Degree of Rivalry Price Point – must be competitive with other bread options Power – big manufacturers have power to control market if desired

29 29 Competitive Analysis Summary – Major Competitors Key competitors in the bread industry include: Frozen traditional bread dough Rhodes International - frozen loaves in white or wheat. The white bread compares to a traditional sandwich loaf – little flavor, soft texture. Frozen pre-baked traditional Pillsbury Oven Baked Crusty French Mini Loaves – a household brand name producing an extremely average convenience bread product. Frozen pre-baked natural or organic Alexia - frozen baked artisan bread rolls. Known for producing a quality product. Fresh natural or organic Rudis Organic Bakery – produces a wide array of certified organic breads, primarily sandwich style. Grocery bakeries Grocery bakeries produce a large variety of fresh baked breads of varying qualities. Natural food grocers generally produce a higher quality product. See the Competition Matrix in Appendix 3 for a detailed comparison of competitors. Possible Future Competitors: Current baked bread manufacturers could easily produce a frozen dough product. Its really just a matter of making slight modifications to production and packaging. Food service companies, such as Bridgford, Ralcorp Frozen Bakery Products, and Richs, produce frozen dough or par-baked bread and could fairly easily offer a retail product.

30 30 Competitive Analysis Summary Basis of Competition Convenience vs. Quality - Shelf bread with long life vs. Fresh bakery product with better taste but shorter life Reputation - For big industry players, like Rudis or Rhodes, their reputation is a key competitive factor. New ventures do not have brand recognition Specialty – Offering specialty products, such as gluten free or vegetarian, is a key competitive factor for many small bread makers. Control over Prices, Costs, & Channels Consumers know what bread costs. Limited ability to charge a premium price. A start-up is going to have a difficult time getting price breaks from suppliers. With the relative shortage of natural and organic ingredients, suppliers have a fair amount of power. Large grocery chains require distributor relationships, but there may be creative alternatives to the traditional channel, such as local stores or internet sales. Market Domination No premium frozen bread dough in U.S. retail market Many small businesses in the natural and organic bread market Conclusions Bread manufacturers are not currently addressing the market niche for premium frozen bread dough. Existing indirect competitors could enter this niche market fairly easily if they wanted. Future competitors, such as food service companies, could also enter this niche. Market size is small so there is little incentive for large companies to enter the market.

31 31 Opportunity for Frozen Bread Dough Market trend for premium bread needs Huge world market for bread – export opportunity. Higher share of artisan bread in Europe and Japan (than in the US) 8 No premium frozen bread dough in current retail bread market. Jason Vincent, Category Manager - Frozen Foods for Wild Oats, feels that there is a need for natural/organic frozen bread dough and is surprised that no one has yet entered that niche. The long shelf life is a key attractive characteristic. He feels the market is probably 2 to 3 units per week per store. 9 Adam Schneider, natural food broker, indicated that he could sell the hell out of a par-baked frozen bread product. 10 In 2004, the natural foods bread and baked goods category grew 14.1%. 11 Problem: Not everyone has the joy of experiencing fresh baked bread No time to make nutritious, great tasting bread. May not live near a bakery where premium, natural, or organic bread is made. Not everyone has the skill or desire to make good bread from scratch Venture Analysis – Opportunity and Need

32 32 Compelling Need Physical – we all need food to survive, and bread is a major part of the American diet. Physiological – Faced with increasing obesity and health concerns, Americans have a need for healthier products Shoppers want to see high levels of specific nutrients and specific health claims on Nutrition Facts labels and whole grain is one of the most important claims. 12 [reaffirmed by customer survey data] Emotional Want the satisfaction of feeding a nutritious product to loved ones Fresh baked bread makes people feel warm and comfortable Relieve the stress of needing to find time to make the product oneself To relieve the stress of hectic lifestyle, want convenient, fast and fresh products: As lifestyles change and people having lesser time for baking, refrigerated and frozen categories seem to be more convenient to bakers rather than preparing from mixes. 13 Social Consumers want to join peers in showing increased concern for sustainable practices. They want products that show their Awareness of earth-friendly farming practices and desire to recycle and conserve energy 14 Want a fresh, homemade product to serve friends at dinner parties. 15 Venture Analysis – Opportunity and Need 16

33 33 Product Description Performance Product will rise and bake dependably to produce a consistent taste and texture. Ingredients will be natural or organic. Nutritious whole grain options will be offered. No unpronounceable ingredients. Dough is made using old-world multi-day build processes to provide optimum flavor complexity. Packaging will protect product from freezer burn to guarantee taste and texture once baked. Loaves will be sold in packages of 2-1 lb. loaves or 3-10 oz. loaves. Cost Target retail price per package is $7.99 [for 2-1lb or 3-10 oz.]. Promotional discounts or coupons would be available (generally required by distributors and grocers). Discount price (such as 90% retail) could be offered for direct sales (such as internet). Availability Carried by natural grocers and mainstream grocers, specialty shops On-line purchases available for local customers or those willing to pay for refrigerated/dry-ice freight. Consumers required to make cash purchases, but Company will have to maintain credit terms with distributors or other commercial purchasers. Social Use product performance superiority to build a name that people can trust. Fun brand that consumers of all ages can enjoy Customer as marketer, spreading the word to family & friends Service Money-back product quality guarantee Possible organic certification Comprehensive, easy-to-use website with long list of categorized FAQs Specialized instructions to meet variety of customer cooking styles Customers feedback actively solicited and acted upon. Venture Analysis - Product

34 34 Product Range (based on consumer survey results) Flavors Stage 1: Whole wheat, multigrain, sourdough Stage 2: Rye, bagels, specialty such as cinnamon raisin Sizes Stage 1: Package of 2-1 lb. loaves Stage 2: Package of 3-10 oz. loaves Shapes Traditional loaf shape Consumer option to cook without pan for an artisanal, free-form shape. Stage 1: First stage of introductionStage 2: Product expansion phase Meeting Customer Needs Product targets need for healthier, convenient products. [See Opportunity/Need and Unique Benefits sections for more details] Production & Delivery Rented bakery & warehouse space, used bakery equipment (if not pre-equipped space) Contract refrigerated freight services for transportation. Internet sales will require overnight shipping w/special packaging (customer pays shipping premium) Product Design Refinement Investigation of freezing techniques, such as flash freezing, to optimize stability of product quality. Investigation of partial proofing before freezing to speed thaw times. Venture Analysis - Product

35 35 General Survey Mixed response to idea: Many like the idea and thought it seemed simple: Seems just like laying out meat. Others hated it: I pay people to bake for me Concerns - The time involved and the possibility that the bread wont taste good in the end Varieties Whole wheat was clearly the top choice. Multigrain & Sourdough were the secondary selections Limited interest in other varieties such as rye, bagels, white, pita, and cinnamon raisin Price Standard Loaf: $2-6 Small Loaf: $1-3 Whats Important Superior flavor is very important Natural/Organic, Whole grain, & Freshness are fairly important Price & Shelf Life are only somewhat important Most bread is purchased in the supermarket bread aisle Venture Analysis – Customer Survey Summary & Conclusions

36 36 Prototype samples survey Liked the appearance, taste of the loaf One respondent felt more likely to purchase after trying. Felt that a bigger loaf was probably better given thaw/proof time. Including pan added to convenience Concerned about the bread taking a long time to thaw and rise Would purchase the bread for special occasions, like dinner parties. Good for people who dont know how to bake. Suggestions Consider making bread rings of sectioned bread to speed up the proofing. Really soft doughs proof much more quickly than dense wheat and rye doughs. To attract attention, I might put seeds on and in some of your breads Conclusions There is consumer interest in the product. Need to investigate methods that might allow much quicker thaw/proof times – perhaps partial proofing. One surveyor left the bread in backpack overnight, refroze, and then tried again. Flavor was still good. This suggests that a partial rise might be an option. Really great directions and website are needed to meet different customers needs. Some want detailed directions, some go by feel, etc. Venture Analysis – Customer Survey Summary & Conclusions It tasted like the best store-bought bread or bakery bread that I have ever had. My husband would like to put in an order already!

37 37 Targeted Consumer Demographics Cook of the family, generally women Parents in their late 20s to late 30s College educated professionals Baby Boomers (Early 40s to early 60s) High income households ($50K+) Semi-rural to rural consumers where bakeries are less accessible Psychographics Believe in a healthy lifestyle which is supported by nutritious foods Believe in the benefits of regularly purchasing natural/organic products because they are good for them and good for the environment Want to feed their family (especially children) a quality product Want to replace traditional products with healthy alternatives Social status Grew up in a lower to middle income family (more likely to have experienced fresh baked bread) Middle class values with an upper income Family is important, but the rest of life gets in the way Venture Analysis – Targeted Consumer Market

38 38 Distribution Retail Route: Manufacturer Distributor Grocer Consumer Food Service: Manufacturer Distributor Food service/Restaurant as Consumer Internet or Local Sales: Manufacturer Consumer Target markets opinions on current offerings 17 : Generally satisfied Decent, but not always fresh or tasty – doesnt last long…artisan breads… are hard to come by Theres a lot of choice out there; but not much when it comes to baking at home Consumers appear willing to try the product as long as performance concerns can be mitigated. Buying decisions are made by the family grocery shopper. Survey results indicate that: Superior flavor is very important Natural/Organic, Whole grain, & Freshness are fairly important Price & Shelf life are only somewhat important Venture Analysis – Targeted Consumer Market

39 39 Major Benefits Health Nutrition - natural/organic ingredients, whole grains, lack of processed ingredients are better for the body Taste – like going to a French bakery, not the day-old section Emotional Love – serving quality ingredients to family and friends Achievement – for those who havent had success making own bread from scratch Convenience – dont have to make a mess mixing or forming. No flour to clean off the counter. No run to the store for bread. Comfort – can enjoy warm fresh bread straight from the oven Memories - smell of fresh bread baking takes you back to Grandmas kitchen Social Sustainability – organic ingredients are good for the environment, as is recyclable pans and packaging Personal Relationships – make friends think you slaved all day and are an amazing baker! Service Helping hand – website and customer support line are like cooking with a professional chef in the kitchen. Youll always have answers to problems and questions. Venture Analysis – Unique Benefits

40 40 Uniqueness of Benefits Rhodes frozen bread dough can also provide convenience, achievement, comfort, & memories benefits Organic bread makers, such as Rudis, provide health, convenience, and sustainability benefits Only Auntie Carlas can provide all of these benefits through its quality manufacturing, packaging, and excellent customer service! Educating the Market Teaching them that bread can be in the frozen aisle In-store demonstrations Website information Sampling product to prove that its dependable, easy, and tasty Venture Analysis – Unique Benefits

41 41 Venture Analysis – Sustainable Competitive Advantage Ventures resources Financial Low capital requirement to start and run the venture Founders have personal savings to commit to starting venture Founders can take personal loans and use credit cards to provide additional financing Spouses to keep food (in addition to bread) on the table Physical assets Low requirement for plant and equipment No incoming ownership of physical assets Rent kitchen space to avoid initial capital requirements Recipe Ability to produce nutritious & tasty product Location (Boulder) Health sensitive consumers who would buy healthy food Healthy image of the town Easy access to local Natural Food industry New idea New frozen dough product that is easy to bake

42 42 Venture Analysis – Sustainable Competitive Advantage Ventures capabilities Knowledge Management – Two CU Leeds MBAs! Product expertise and production experience - Carla Export experience – Masashi Contacts CU Alumni network, Deming Center, entrepreneurship professors Access to the knowledge of Boulders natural food experts Website Family & Friends to help build a full service website that will help to draw & keep customers Barriers to entry that venture faces Regulatory Must meet state board of health regulations. This is easy if renting shared/incubator kitchen space that is already certified. Proprietary Bread is not high technology, so there are no trade copyrights or patents to battle. Customer Loyalty Loyalty to baked bread brands could deter customers from switching to frozen dough option. Getting customers to look in the frozen section for bread Distribution Have to convince grocers to find room in limited freezer space to carry our product. Have to convince distributors to carry product line. Competitor Response If a known baked bread brand, such as Rudis, were to enter the market, customers would be more likely to buy known over unknown.

43 43 Venture Analysis – Sustainable Competitive Advantage Barriers venture can create New distribution and retail system If we can create our own private distribution or/and retail channel which other manufactures can not imitate, this would function as a barrier. Customer brand loyalty Because there is currently no retail frozen premium bread dough, customers would currently have no brand to be loyal to. First entry advantage might deter customers from switching brands if a new competitor entered the market. Create a taste that consumers cannot forget Build consumer trust in the quality of ingredients Build complete product line – one stop purchase of all frozen baked products Create website that consumers like to visit, builds camaraderie, and answers all of their questions. Trade secrets Create unique recipes and baking processes– competitors may not be able to replicate that customer- winning flavor.

44 44 Venture Analysis – Risks Marketing Will the consumers buy? With current financial projection, break-even sale volume is about lb. loaves per day. Based on an initial sales estimate of 3 loaves/variety/store per week [based on Jason Vincent interview] and assuming 4 initial product varieties, product would have to be in 146 stores to reach break even volume. If this break-even volume cannot be obtained before savings are depleted, the venture will fail. Another low-carb diet craze could kill the venture before it gets off the ground. Price structure Every dollar change in sale price has a huge impact on revenue. $1 increase in retail price reduces break-even sales to 175 units per day. On the other hand, $1 decrease in sale price increases break- even volume to 450 units per day. By decreasing retailers or distributors mark up by 5% (from 35% to 30%), it will decrease break even sales unit by 15. On the other hand, increasing 5% will increase the break even number by 20 units. Distribution and Grocer acceptance Even with creative marketing strategies, venture is unlikely to achieve necessary volumes if acceptance in traditional grocery channel cannot be quickly obtained. Finance Assuming founders can finance $100,000, the venture will not last more than three years without achieving the break even sales volume. Sales must grow above break even number within three years or the venture needs to be re-financed.

45 45 Venture Analysis – Risks Competitors If existing well established bakery such as Rudis entered the market, consumers may prefer Rudis because of brand familiarity. The venture needs time to create its good brand image before facing competition. Economy Bread is a commodity product, thus less economic impact on total consumption of bread. However... Consumers may shift to low priced bread in sluggish market. High quality, high priced bread is price sensitive. The venture cannot reduce price and stay profitable.

46 46 Venture Analysis – Financial Projections See Appendix 1 for Financial Projection Assumptions

47 47 Venture Analysis - Conclusion Compelling needs Physical need for food Physiological need for better ingredients Emotional need for increased convenience, connection to loved ones Social need for special occasions Proof of the target markets interest Survey suggests that (potential) consumers are interested. Benefits Frozen bread dough has unique benefit of easy baking at home environment. Sustainable advantages Almost no barrier to entry How to create barrier is the key question. Opportunity to expand. Profitability and Investment Relatively low investment required High gross margin Final profitability depends on the sales volume Break even sales volume is about 250 loaves per day, can we achieve it?

48 48 Venture Analysis - Recommendations Recommended further research Possible barrier to entry that can be created Distribution channel Retail channel Recipe Regulation FDA Organic requirement International Organic requirement Opportunity of sales Possible sales volume Opportunity for expansion Export market research Other (similar) products such as cookies, cakes, pet treats, religious needs (Jewish people bake religious bread every week) Sale to business customers such as restaurant, cafe, or even local bakery Prepare prototype Prepare a unforgettably delicious organic bread dough. Investigate freezing/thaw procedures that are more convenient. Prepare business plan Prepare a business plan Take MBAX 6170

49 49 1 Bread, Cake, and Related Products, Encyclopedia of American Industries. On line Edition, Thomson Gale, Market Trends: Fresh Bread and Related Products, August 2004, p7. 3 Market Trends: Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook, February 2006, p See Call Report- Adam Schneider 5 See Call Report- Adam Schneider 6 Market Trend, Fresh Bread and related products, August 2004, p67. 7 See Call Report - Jason Vincent 8 Global – Bread and Rolls, Datamonitor industry market research, October 31, See Call Report - Jason Vincent 10 See Call Report- Adam Schneider 11 The U.S. Market for Whole Grain and High Fiber Foods, April 2005, p ibid, p Market Trends: Convenience Home Baking Products, February 2004, p Baby Boomers and the U.S. Food and Beverage Industry, December 2005, p See customer survey results 16 Market Trends: Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook, February 2006, p See customer survey results 18 Panera Bread Corporate web site, 19 National Average of Baking Industry, 20 Great Harvest Corporate web site, Endnotes

50 50 Appendix 1: Financial Projection Assumptions………………………………….. 29 Appendix 2: Customer Survey…………………………………………………….. 33 Appendix 3: Competition Matrix…………………………………………………….36 Appendix 4: Call Reports……………………………………………………………37 Appendix 5: Feasibility Plan Parts I & II……………………………………………70 Appendix – Contents

51 51 Appendix 1 – Financial Projection Assumptions Revenue Number of units sold per day (based on what the venture needs to sell) Year 1 = 50 units per day Year 2 = 150 units per day Year 3 = 300 units per day Price $4.00/unit (1 lb loaf) at retail Other baked premium organic bread = about $4.00/lb Retailers mark up = 35% (see Call Report : Scott Creevy) Distributor's mark up = 30% (see Call Report : Scott Roy) Assumed wholesale price = $2.28/unit (1 lb loaf) COGS - Ingredient costs for basic 1 lb. loaf of organic white or wheat bread: 9 oz. Organic $0.63 to $0.80/lb = $ $0.60/loaf (probably cheaper at whole sale) Bobs Red Mill (www.bobsredmill.com) 25lb at $15.75www.bobsredmill.com Shop Natural (Guistos Flour) 50lb at $ oz. almost nothing = $ oz. Sea $44/lb < $ oz. $2.60/lb = $0.02 Total material cost = $0.51 to $0.64/loaf Total cost (labor included) $1.00/loaf (1 lb)

52 52 Appendix 1 – Financial Projection Assumptions Operating expenses Sales and Marketing Sales promotion $400/month (10 free samples per day + $100 printed promotions per month) Transportation $300/month (1800 miles per month / 15 miles per gallon / $2.5/gallon fuel cost) Communications $300/month (2 land lines X $ mobile phones X $50 + Internet/web $100) Other expenses $150/month Total $1,150/month (fixed cost at constant for all three years) General & Administration Bakery space $750/month ( 750 F³ kitchen space at $1 Rent / F³ / month) Pay check $6000/month ( 3 workers including 2 founders X $2000/month) Total $6750/month (fixed cost at constant for all three years) Depreciation $16,000 equipment / 10 years life = $1,600 per year Investment Required Capital Expenditures (only required at year 1) Dough mixer $6000 (used, capacity 60qtrs) Freezer $10,000 (new, 8 x 10 walk in) Other equipment $2000 (used sink = $1000, Used counter and other = $1000) Working Capital Payment to suppliers = cash on delivery ( +0 days) Payment from retailers = cash by next month day 20 th ( -1 day to -50 days ) Average negative 25 days of sales amount Other major expenses Installment of equipments and other $1000

53 53 Appendix 1 - Financial Projection Assumptions Comparables Financial information Most small bakeries are privately owned. No financial information except larger public companies. Panera Bread (only company owned bakery and cafe section) 18 COGS = about 30% of sales amount Labor = about 30% of sales amount National average of baking industry 19 Out of 5,354 companies Average COGS = 56% of sales amount

54 54 Appendix 1 - Cost of starting a franchise Great Harvest (Franchise Retail Bakery) 20 Initial fee Average Initial Franchise Fee $30,000 Travel & Training Expenses $381-$12,000 average $4,488 Real Estate & Improvements$8,348-$172,022 average $70,586 Equipment $44,341-$140,727 average $78,325 Opening Inventory Ingredients & Supplies $2,750-$27,000 average $8,346 Signs $615-$23,793 average $5,953 Grand Opening Advertising $400-$8,689 average $3,495 Prepaid Expenses City, County, State, Landlord $400-$21,232 average $6,420 Organizational Costs Legal, Utilities $425-$42,475 average $10,063 Working Capital (Cash Reserves) $5,000-$70,000 average $12,285 3 Months Rent $4,455-$18,600 average $10,383 TOTAL ACTUAL INVESTMENT $107,608-$352,322 average $225,682

55 55 Survey of Monday night MBAX 6100 class Response to Idea: Yes: 17 Maybe: 2 No: 9 Seems just like laying out meat I pay people to bake for me Already have a breadmaker. Hobbyist breadmaking need already filled Offer companion product like dip Is frozen less healthy? Like frozen Jewish breads, would like more options Concerns Worried that making bread is tough. Is there room for baking error? Time involved – maybe a weekend activity, want instant Having to remember to thaw ahead of time/ planning Will it taste as good as bakery products? Over/under baking High Altitude baking Varieties – Rank The overwhelming choice: Whole Wheat Next: Multigrain & Sourdough Some interest: Rye & Bagels Limited Interest: White & Pita Special Interest: Cinnamon Raisin Appendix 2 – Customer Survey Price Standard Loaf: $2-6(10) Small Loaf: $1-3(5) Whats Important Superior flavor is very important Natural/Organic, Whole grain, & Freshness are fairly important Price & Shelf life are only somewhat important Whats missing: good baguettes Demographics Male: 25 Female: 3 Household Size:6(1) 10(2) 2(3) (4+)4 Age Group: 3 (18-25) 10 (26-30) 8 (31-37) 1 (38-50) Primary Shopper? Yes: 13 No: 7 How much do you buy per week: 2(0) 6(1) 6(2) 6(3+) Where do you buy: (No/Maybe/Yes) Supermarket bread aisle: 8 / 2 / 8 Supermarket bakery: 2 / 1 / 6 Supermarket frozen section: 1 / 0 / 3 Bake at home from scratch: 1 / 0 / 1 Bake at home using mixes: 1 / 0 / 1

56 56 Survey of Professors/Administrative Staff Thought product seemed like a good idea Concerns Thawing long enough/sufficient rise Under/overcooking Freezer burn/Freshness High altitude baking Will it taste like homemade? Expected price Comparable to fresh-baked prices $1.50 to $3 for large loaf $0.80 to $2 for small loaf Multi-grain & Whole Wheat top variety choices 4 Females/1 Male 1 (31-37) 1 (38-50) 3 (50+) Appendix 2 – Customer Survey

57 57 Survey of classmates given prototype samples of product to try 4 Women & 1 Male 3 Loaves of Rye, 2 loaves of sourdough Liked – At least 1 was ready to make purchases! the convenience of pan The appearance of the baked loaf The flavor: tasted great, having hot bread One respondent felt more likely to purchase after trying Generally thought that a bigger loaf was probably better given thaw/proof time. Concerns Bread took a long time to thaw and rise, takes a lot of planning ahead ecological impact of disposable pan Use would purchase the bread for special occasions, like dinner parties Good for people who dont know how to bake Suggestions consider making bread rings of sectioned bread to speed up the proofing Really soft doughs proof much more quickly than dense wheat and rye doughs to attract attention, I might put seeds on and in some of your breads Conclusions Need to investigate methods that might allow much quicker thaw/proof times – perhaps partial proofing One surveyor left the bread in backpack overnight, refroze, and then tried again. Flavor was still good. This suggests that a partial rise might be an option. Really great directions and website are needed to meet different customers needs. Some want detailed directions, some go by feel, etc. Appendix 2 – Customer Survey It tasted like the best store-bought bread or bakery bread that I have ever had. My husband would like to put in an order already!

58 58 Appendix 3 – Competition Matrix

59 59 Appendix 4 – Call Reports Index of Reports: 1. Beth Swanson, Rudis Organic Bakery 2. Kyla Duffy, former owner Nutballz 3. Scott Roy, President, Boulder Ice Cream 4. Adam Schneider, Owner, United Sales & Service 5. Jason Vincent, Category Manager, Frozen Foods, Wild Oats Corporate 6. Linda Iggi, Owner, Amazing Grains 7. Scott Creevey, Owner, Great Harvest Bread 8. Soichiro Sato, Manager, Clear freight 9. Tom, Store Supervisor, Vitamin Cottage 10. Name Unknown, Bread Sales Supervisor, Whole Foods


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