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Providing real estate valuation, consulting, and due diligence services to: Individuals Lenders Corporations And their tax and legal advisors.

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Presentation on theme: "Providing real estate valuation, consulting, and due diligence services to: Individuals Lenders Corporations And their tax and legal advisors."— Presentation transcript:

1 Providing real estate valuation, consulting, and due diligence services to: Individuals Lenders Corporations And their tax and legal advisors

2

3 Objective Highlight trends in this market place Identify areas of risk and opportunity Bring strategic awareness to –Market participants –Municipal leaders

4 Market Drivers Office markets are driven by jobs Jobs are changing -Cost reduction / Technology -Education -Legal/Tax structure -Society

5 Definitions Large Floor Plate User – Corp. tenants over 15,000 SF in market Public Space needs decision not made here Small Floor Plate User < 5,000 SF Private Companies Professional Owner Lives Here

6 Survey Parameters Class A & B Office with GBA > 5,000 SF Locations – various logical office markets –Greenwich –Stamford –Norwalk –Westport/Fairfield –Trumbull/Shelton –Danbury LMA

7 What we will look at Brief history – How we got here Where the jobs are locating currently Impact of job growth on this office market Emerging Trends Opportunity Index – graphical representation of risk

8 Fairfield County- Historically Square Footage Additions

9 Historical Space Additions Large floor plate buildings added in SF 1980s - 25,000, s - 9,000, s - 5,000,000 Total - 39,000,000

10 Fairfield County- Historically Persistently High Vacancy Rates Since 2001

11 Big Picture Dynamic Job Market Information based jobs are now going to the lowest cost provider Higher end jobs are filling in the space – just not filling in enough space Will there be enough jobs to fill the space?

12 Trailing 12 Months Strong leasing of 2.5 million SF Offset by downsizing, relocations, new space –Purdue Pharmas OxyContin issue results in 300,000 SF giveback –International Papers relocation down south dumps 120,000 SF –901 Merritt coming on line with 375,000 SF 18% increase in smaller deals (10k-20k SF) Musical Chairs Investment sales are hot

13 Jobs 1.Who is going to occupy the current and projected future vacant space? –Leaner, more educated workforce 2.Where will those jobs be located? –In smaller floor plate buildings

14 Lease Transactions by Locale

15 Lease Transactions by SF Group

16 Average SF Leased by Locale

17 Median SF Leased by Locale

18 By Building Age 50,000 SF and Greater 145 Buildings78 Buildings

19 Fairfield County Overall Vacancy Rates 293 Buildings 919 Buildings

20 Fairfield County Pipeline Approximately 5.2 million square feet of office space have a reasonable expectation of coming online over the next 10 years.

21 Fairfield County Pipeline 5.2 Million SF Total

22 Periodic County Employment Growth 43,000 New Jobs Added 7,000 Jobs 15,000 Jobs

23 Forecasted County Vacancy Rates Now add the proposed space additions in: Norwalk & Fairfield Market Equilibrium 2012

24 Forecasted County Vacancy Rates Now add the proposed space additions in: Norwalk, Fairfield & Stamford Market Equilibrium

25 Forecasted County Vacancy Rates Now add the proposed space additions in: All Fairfield County Market Equilibrium Not Achieved

26 Alternative Workplace Strategies Historical Average of 195 per person What happens at 150 SF and 125 SF Why – reduced costs and lower space needs per employee

27 Effects of AWS Assuming all pipeline additions

28 Opportunity Index Numbers represent partial anticipated new space online in the next 10 years Green – Vacancy lower than 12% with a down trend Yellow – Vacancy 12% - 15% with up trend Red – Vacancy greater than 15% with up trend

29 For a copy of the Opportunity Index, or more information See client section


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