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Mat 308 Topics in Statistical Inference Class 1, Tuesday Aug 28

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Objectives: learn basic commands in R: vectors, matrices, notion of dataframes, graphical displays of data, data statistics.

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Group activity: Can financial experts beat the darts? Starting in 1988, the Wall Street Journal run a contest between stocks chosen at randomly by Journal Staff members throwing darts at the Journals stock pages (mounted on a board) and stocks chosen by a team of 4 financial experts. At the end of 6 months, the Journal compared the percentage in the price of the experts stocks and the dartboards stocks. As of Nov. 23, 1998, the WSJ have had 101 overlapping six month contests. A new contest is started every month. The following data gives the percent gain for the average of the experts, the darts, and the Dow. http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/data/darts_vs_experts.tx t http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/data/darts_vs_experts.tx t This dataset contains the results for the experts pics, the darts pics and the Dow. Who did better?

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Group activity: Can financial experts beat the darts? Chose the one that applies best: A.Financial experts clearly outperformed the Random choices B.Financial experts clearly outperformed the Dow C.Financial experts choices performed just as good as the Random choices D.Financial experts choices performed worse than the Dow

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Individual activities Open R Open file BasicR1 from Blackboard Read the dataset http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_ai ds/data/darts_vs_experts.txt and create numeric summaries for each group. http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_ai ds/data/darts_vs_experts.txt Display the 3 groups using comparative box plots Save all your work

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Back to groups: re-evaluate: Who did better Experts vs Random Why was the Dow included in the dataset?

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Assigned reading: BasicR2: vectors and matrices. Qualitative. Graphical display for categorical data: bar, pie Quantitative. Graphical displays for quantitative data. Probability Functions by Bruce Dedek. Chapter 2 of Mathematical Statistics w/resampling and R Section 6: Random Data from Simple R

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