4. MULTIPOLAR STABILITY IN LIBERALISM (2): After Pax Americana (Charles Kupchan)
The US serves as: a critical extra-regional balancer in Europe and East Asia the catalyst behind multilateral effort to combat aggression and peacefully resolve long standing disputes the engine behind the liberalization of the world economy
To assume that international order can indefinitely rest on American hegemony is both illusory and dangerous Americas unipolar moment will not last long Crucial question: is it possible to construct a stable multipolarity?
Solution: encourage emergence of regional unipolarity in North America, Europe, and East Asia unipolarity at the regional level in these 3 regions of industrial and military power will offset fragmentation and rivalry that could accompany the decline of American hegemony
Benign Unipolarity Preponderant geographic core (size and scope of economic power) Periphery
Regional order: consensual bargain between core and periphery no coercion the core engages in self-restraint and uses its power to set rules and norms through multilateral negotiation then, order emerges as a result of the restraint and moderation
North America Europe (France and Germany under the European Union) Problematic East Asia Contest between Japan and China The US support for Japan is an obstacle for Asias integration
The Logic of Benign Unipolarity If neighbors are at peace with each other, they are likely to be at peace with states further afield If neighbors are at war with each other, states further afield are likely to become involved to contain the war
The Logic of Benign Unipolarity (Cont.) Region unipolarity provides order and stability (through power asymmetry and structural hierarchy within the core-periphery pattern of relations), whereas roughly equivalent power produces contestation over leadership
The benign exercise of power gives rise to the trust, shared interests and identity, and international institutions essential to escaping anarchy and fostering a community of states within which the rules of self-help competition no longer apply
States that exercise unfettered power and that engage in predatory and exploitative behavior are likely to trigger balancing coalition and strategic rivalry Regional integration and cohesion leads the coincidence of national interests and the emergence of a sense of community
Why Would Preponderant Core States Restrain Themselves? 1.Changing sources of state power: technology information and productivity have replaced land and labor as key determinants of wealth. Trade and investment are. 2.Changes in prevailing international norms: abuse of power will be resisted by the periphery as well as the extra-regional states.
Why Would Preponderant Core States Restrain Themselves?(Cont.) 3.The spread of democracy: cores that are mostly ruled by democracy would mostly pursue moderate foreign policy toward other democracies. 4.Self-enforcing institutions: the ongoing processes of integration will be institutionalized and normalized. 5.Societal aversion to war: aversion to military influence or military devastation of war.
Relations Between Benign Poles 4 reasons for why peace will prevail not only within regions, but also among regions: 1.Unipolar formations based on managing rather than accumulating power would dampen interregional rivalry as a result of self-binding and consensual bargaining 2.Interregional relation would benefit from intraregional integration
Relations Between Benign Poles (Cont.) 4 reasons for why peace will prevail not only within regions, but also among regions: 3.The nature of confederation rather than federation within benign unipolarity would check the concentration of power under a single authority 4.Consensual regional formations are unlikely to evolve into predatory powers
North America (NAFTA) Europe (EU) Problematic East Asia (APEC, ASEAN) Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Association of South East Asian Nations