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PACS 2500 Introduction to Peace and Conflict Studies Guy Burgess.

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1 PACS 2500 Introduction to Peace and Conflict Studies Guy Burgess

2 University Costs http://m.dailycamera.com/camera/db_/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=IIQBqHOX&full=true#display

3 The Pentagon Cut Debate http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/02/opponents-of-pentagon-budget-cuts- just-played-the-entire-media/284058/

4 Cutting the Pentagon to Pre-WWII

5 Defense Budgets

6 Afghanistan & Backlash Effect http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interview-karzai-says-12-year-afghanistan-war-has-left-him-angry-at-us- government/2014/03/02/b831671c-a21a-11e3-b865-38b254d92063_story.html

7 Ukraine

8 Putins Vision http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/opinion/brooks-putin-cant-stop.html?hp&rref=opinion&_r=0

9 Reagan Gorbachev

10 Soviet Union

11 NATO Today

12

13 Cold War Frame http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/opinion/putins-crimean-crime.html?_r=0

14 G-8 Minus One http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/03/03/the-group-of-8-without- russia?hp&rref=opinion

15 US Respect for Soverignty? http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/eugene-robinson-with-ukraine-crisis-the-us-has-a-credibility- problem/2014/03/03/f8f6a58a-a311-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html?hpid=z1

16 US Politics & the Ukraine http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-obama-the-feckless-tyrant/2014/03/03/73470bdc-a320- 11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html

17 Overlay Problems: Communication, Facts Escalation Relationships Communication Facts Collaboration Core

18 Trustworthy Facts To be useful factual information must be: Worthy of trust Trusted Understood Sensibly acted upon How do you achieve this? The economy? Security? Climate change?

19 Risk vs. Uncertainty Risk Known possible outcomes Known costs associated with those outcomes Known probability of those outcomes Insurance possible Uncertainty Known and unknown possible outcomes Known and unknown costs associated with those outcomes Known and unknown probability of those outcomes Insurance not possible Hunch gambling possible

20 Avoiding the Ostrich Trap Predicting the Future?.8 x.8 x.8 x.8 =.4 Charles Linbloom "The next change" Requires continual monitoring and reassessment

21 Cant Be Too Safe Rachet Also Risky Shift

22 Hierarchy of Wastebaskets

23 FactCheck.org

24

25 Al Frakin True, False, or Weasel Game

26 If the Facts Arent on Your Side, Attack the Wonks / Fact Checkers Were not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact-checkers How do you encourage and support quality fact checking? Or, get your own fact checker

27 Overlay Problems: Collaboration Escalation Relationships Communication Collaboration Core

28 Getting to Yes – Fisher and Ury

29 Interests / Positions Positions = initial demands what you want Let me have the orange Drill baby drill Interests = the real reasons behind your positions (may be unconscious) Eat the fruit, use the skin for a geometry project Continue to be able to do the things that need energy, limit pollution, preserve vitality of energy companies Interest-based framing lets you identify and pursue options for mutual gain Split orange between skin and fruit Comprehensive energy plan with conservation, alternative/conventional energy

30 The Position Trap

31 Interests? / Positions? Leaders? Grassroots citizens?

32 Positional Political Framing

33 Excuses vs. Reasons (Real Interests) The Federal Deficit Conflict

34 Interest-based Strategy Park Service / Climber Negotiation

35 Interest-based (or Integrative) Bargaining Separate people from the problem Focus on interests Generate options Use objective criteria Based on fairness principles

36 Coalition Building Applications

37 Works within ZOPA Party A Winning Outcomes Party B Winning Outcomes ZOPA Zone of Possible Agreement

38 Initial Situation

39 Zero-Sum / Draw-Draw

40 Positive-Sum / Win-Win

41 Negative-Sum / Lose-Lose (equally)

42 Zero-Sum / Win-Lose

43 Negative-Sum / Win-Lose

44 Positive-Sum / Win-Lose

45 Positive-Sum Game (e.g. hybrid car wind energy storage) Win-WinWin-Lose Party Year 1 BdgtYear 2 Bdgt A202515 B101510 C202520 D505575 Total100120

46 Zero-Sum Game (e.g. steady state budget) Draw-DrawWin-Lose Party Year 1 BdgtYear 2 Bdgt A20 15 B10 C20 15 D50 60 Total100

47 Negative-Sum Game (e.g. Budget Cuts) Lose-LoseWin-Lose Party Year 1 BdgtYear 2 Bdgt A201510 B 55 C201510 D504555 Total10080100

48 Hard, Soft, Principled Negotiation I SoftHardPrincipled Participants are friendsParticipants are adversaries Participants are problem-solvers The goal is agreementThe goal is victoryThe goal is a wise outcome reached efficiently and amicably Make concessions to cultivate the relationship Demand concessions as a condition of the relationship Separate the people from the problem Be soft on the people and the problem Be hard on the people and the problem Be soft on the people, hard on the problem Problem Positional Bargaining: which Game Should You Play? Solution Change the Game- Negotiate on the Merits

49 Hard, Soft, Principled Negotiation II SoftHardPrincipled Trust othersDistrust othersProceed independent of others Change your position easily Dig into your positionFocus on interests, not positions Make offersMake threatsExplore interests Disclose your bottom line Mislead as your bottom line Avoid having a bottom line Accept one-sided losses to reach agreement Demand one-sided gains as the price of agreement Invest options for mutual gain Search for the single answer: the one they will accept Search for the single answer: the one you will accept Develop multiple options to choose from; decide later Insist on agreementInsist on your positionInsist on using objective criteria

50 Hard, Soft, Principled Negotiation III SoftHardPrincipled Try to avoid a contest of will Try to win a contest of will Try to reach a result based on standards of independent will Yield to pressureApply pressureReason and be open to reasons; yield to principle, not pressure Source: Getting to Yes

51 Distributive vs. Integrative Bargaining Trade-Offs vs. Mutual Gain Bargaining Chips

52 BATNA Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement On what basis do you decide whether or not to accept a negotiated agreement?

53 BATNA Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement Conclusion of a Negotiation Process Are there any power contest alternatives that are likely to give me a better deal? Accept Agreement Administrative appeal Legal challenge Political lobbying Electoral campaigns Public persuasion Economic action Civil disobedience Military action Etc,

54 BATNA Limit / Ripeness Conclusion of a Negotiation Process Are there any power contest alternatives that are likely to give me a better deal? Conclusion of a Negotiation Process Are there any power contest alternatives that are likely to give me a better deal? Accept Agreement Administrative appeal Legal challenge Political lobbying Electoral campaigns Public persuasion Economic action Civil disobedience Military action Etc,

55 BATNA Limit / Ripeness Conclusion of a Negotiation Process Are there any power contest alternatives that are likely to give me a better deal? WIN Ballot Initiative WIN Conclusion of a Negotiation Process Are there any power contest alternatives that are likely to give me a better deal? Power Contest Shortcut Bitter End Path Accept Agreement

56 BATNA Limit / Ripeness Conclusion of a Negotiation Process Are there any power contest alternatives that are likely to give me a better deal? WIN Ballot Initiative LOSE Conclusion of a Negotiation Process Are there any power contest alternatives that are likely to give me a better deal? Power Contest Shortcut Bitter End Path Accept Agreement

57 Lack of Negotiation Channels The problem: The parties have no mechanism for exploring their respective interests and opportunities for mutually beneficial agreement Options for making things better: Convening, facilitation, and, perhaps, mediation services Institutionalized, standby negotiation forums

58 The Double Cross Problem The problem: Unwillingness to accept mutually beneficial agreements because of the fear of being double- crossed The prisoners dilemma Options for making things better: Guarantees, verification, action-forcing mechanisms Trust, but verify

59 Illusion of Winner-Take-All Victory The problem: People who see governance as a winner-take-all game in which the goal is to totally defeat (rather than reach an accommodation with) an adversary. Options for making things better: Realistic assessment of transaction costs and risks of defeat Moral challenge to winner- take-all mindset

60 The #1 Getting to Yes Critique Interest-based bargainers are vulnerable to attack and exploitation by hard bargainers Especially, those motivated by ruthless, Machiavellian ethics.

61 Getting Past No: Strategies for Negotiating with Difficult People Dont React (Dont Contribute to Escalation) Disarm Your Opponent (Start to De- escalate the Conflict) Change the Game (To Interests From Positions) Make It Easy to Say Yes (Let Opponents Save Face and Appear to Win Something Important) Make It Hard to Say No (Force Opponents to Give Up something to Say No) Source: William Ury, Getting Past No: Strategies for Negotiating With Difficult People, Bantam Books, New York, 1991.

62 3 rd Party Intervention / Rescue

63 3 rd Party / Intermediary Processes Adjudication Special Case: Mock Trials Arbitration Special Case: Final Offer Arbitration Med-Arb (Mediation/Arbitration) Mediation Special Case: Transformative Mediation Facilitation Convening Hybrid Processes Neutrality?

64 Consensus Building Institute

65 Ground Rules Treat others the way you would like to be treated Accept that you are talking about important issues that everyone really cares about Respect others and expect to be respected Listen and expect to be listened to Agree where you can but disagree where you must Acknowledge that participants will still be aggressive advocates following the meeting Goal: Identify areas in which we can work together Focus our disagreements on the core issues

66 Consensus Building I Assumption: the parties really want to resolve the dispute Usually business-as-usual is not acceptable Examples Metropolitan Denver water supply Social Security Denver-area transit Municipal budget downsizing Security and anti-terrorism Boulder Open Space management

67 Consensus Building II Step #1: Conflict assessment / development of a consensus building plan Need lead individual / organization to do the work Identify stakeholders Active and latent stakeholders Especially those with veto power Constituency groups and potential representatives Determine stakeholder interests (with visits / documents) Formal (often legal) responsibilities Formal (often legal) constraints Powers (legal, political, economic, public opinion)

68 Consensus Building III Explain consensus building opportunities and options Discuss their willingness to participate in good faith Concerns that must be overcome Opportunities that they would like to see developed Identify potential funding sources Prepare a consensus building proposal Must work within existing responsibility and power relationships

69 Consensus Building IV Step #2: Sell the proposal Obtain commitments to participate from key stakeholders Obtain skilled facilitation/mediation services May be different from person doing assessment Obtain adequate funding

70 Consensus Building V Step #3: Implement the consensus building process Convene stakeholder/participants Establish ground rules Agree on meeting schedule Establish routine negotiators/constituent loop Build interpersonal relationships among negotiators Identify problems to be addressed Field trips, narratives

71 Consensus Building VI Step #3 (continued) Identify interests to be protected/advanced Identify options for mutual gain Or minimal loss (in negative-sum) conflicts Identify action forcing mechanisms Step #4: Implement the agreement Sequencing / enforcement Periodic reassessments

72 Other Ideas Self-Interest vs. Social Interests Higmans WHY? questions NIMBYs NOPEs BANANAs Within Coalition vs. Between Coalition Fairness Principles

73 Common Ground Meeting What points of agreement exist? What points of disagreement exist? Fact-based disagreements Value-based disagreements What possible compromises can you imagine for simultaneously advancing the interests of all parties? In cases where we feel we must agree to disagree how can we handle those disagreements most constructively?

74 Overlay Problems: Relationships Escalation Relationships Communication Collaboration Core

75 Possible Applications: Syria http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/battle-for-syria/ Regime 0-7:16 Battle

76 Other Possible Applications

77 The Meeting Place Justice Punish those that committed unrightable, unspeakable wrongs Truth Acknowledge the guilt, build a common history Peace Stop the fighting and killing (even if it means letting people get away with it) Mercy Stop the hate with forgiveness Lederach Trade-Offs

78 Visioning Justice Punish those that committed unrightable, unspeakable wrongs Truth Acknowledge the guilt, build a common history Peace Stop the fighting and killing (even if it means letting people get away with it) Mercy Stop the hate with forgiveness Future Vision Imagining a positive future vision and a fair relationship Elise Boulding

79 Charter for Compassion http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJMm4RAwVLo

80 Compassion That which is hurtful to you do not do to others

81 Compassion: A Cross-Cultural Universal? http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/03132009/watch.htm l 25 minutes

82 Charter of Compassion http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wktlwCPDd94

83 Charter for Compassion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrtxUX65QA4

84 Compassion http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCG4qryy1Dghttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCG4qryy1Dghim

85 Monkey and the Fish II http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/02/how-anti-poverty-programs-marginalize- fathers/283984/

86 Compassion Gap http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/opinion/sunday/kristof-the-compassion-gap.html

87 Compassion That which is hurtful to you… Disrespect Betrayal Things that cause you to be hurtful to others… Lack of empathy Anger Out group stereotypes Dehumanization Challenges of compassion Psychopaths (incorrigibles) Constructive confrontation Abortion cross demonstration

88 Discussion Questions What does other groups do that hurt your group? What does your group do that hurts others in the same way? What are your communitys value regarding compassion?

89 Overlay Problems: Collaboration Escalation Relationships Communication Collaboration Core

90 1 st / 3 rd World Problems http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUoKBe DEoDY

91 Africa for Norway http://www.africaforn orway.no/ http://www.africaforn orway.no/why


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