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Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI What is Britain thinking and feeling? Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI November 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI What is Britain thinking and feeling? Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI November 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI What is Britain thinking and feeling? Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI November 2012

2 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Q. Which, if any, do you think you are very interested in reading in the national daily newspapers? Were not always discussing the finer points of life….. Base: 2,026 GB adults 15+, January 1996 Source: MORI/City University Mens top five Football TV & radio listings Sports results Local & regional news International/European news Womens top five Medical & health news Local & regional news TV & radio listings Education Food & recipes

3 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? The economy has been top every single month since August 2008….. Base: 967 British adults 18+, 8 th – 12 th August 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index Top mentions % Economy Race relations/Immigration Inflation/Prices NHS Unemployment Crime/Law and order Pensions/benefits Education/schools Poverty/Inequality Housing

4 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Although in recent months its lead has narrowed….. % concern about immigration % concern about the economy Gap between percentages: Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

5 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Linked to a summer of rising economic optimism Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index = % improve minus % get worse

6 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI What do you think are the two most important issues facing your country/you are facing at the moment? And do get a slightly different focus when ask about personal concerns…. Base: c. 1,300 Source: Standard Eurobarometer 79, Spring 2013 Most important issue facing me personally Most important issue facing country

7 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI We are in a group of European countries feeling hardest hit by the last five years Net disagree country will never be the same again Net last five years good for country Base: 17,678 online interviews with adults aged 16/18-64 in 23 countries, September Source: Ipsos Japan Hungary Turkey Russia Belgium South Africa Argentina Germany US France GB MexicoPoland Sweden Spain Italy South Korea Indonesia Australia Saudi Arabia Canada India Brazil Net last five years bad for country Net agree country will never be the same again

8 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Thinking about the economic downturn, which of these statements comes closest to your view? And were shaken about its effects Base: 1,009 online British adults aged 16-75, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA

9 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI As you may know, the government has announced a number of spending cuts to help reduce the national debt. To what extent, if at all, have you and your family been affected by the cuts so far? And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12 months? Tipping point? Much more worried about cuts to come than cuts so far Base: 1,009 online British adults aged 16-75, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA

10 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI What proportion of the governments planned cuts to public spending do you think have been carried out so far? Little awareness of full scale of cuts – though still think majority to come Base: 1,009 online British adults aged 16-75, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/RSA

11 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI People have different ideas about the best way of dealing with Britains economic difficulties. Which of the following do you most agree with? Despite all that were still a country divided over its deficit….. Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Britain has a debt problem, built up over many years, and we have got to deal with it. If we dont, interest rates will soar. Thats why tackling the deficit and keeping interest rates low should be our top priority. Without growth in our economy, we are not getting the deficit down and are borrowing more. We need more government spending on investment to kick-start our economy and a temporary cut in taxes to support growth George Osborne argues… Ed Balls argues… Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 9 th – 11 th March 2013

12 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI But do we actually know what we think? The perils of perception

13 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI As you may know there is currently a lot of discussion about our national debt and deficit. Can you tell me what these words mean when talking about government finances? Especially when considering complex issues like debt vs deficit... Base: 1,034 British adults aged Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 The difference between what government spends and the income it receives each year The total amount of money that the government owes

14 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Which is a tricky one after all...

15 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI And can you tell me whether the following statement is true or false?...but public also not so clear when use it in a sentence... Base: 1,034 British adults aged Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 Those who got definitions right no more likely to get this right The national debt will always go down if the deficit is decreasing

16 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Basic understanding of numbers is key to statistical literacy – and it is mixed…

17 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI What is 50 expressed as a percentage of 200? Most get very simple questions correct... Base: 1,034 British adults aged Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

18 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI What is the average of the following three numbers – 5, 10 and 15?...and slightly trickier... Base: 1,034 British adults aged Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

19 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI If you spin a coin twice what is the probability of getting two heads?...but real difficulties with probabilities... Base: 1,034 British adults aged Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 Strong relationship with education (A-level+), but also big differences by age, younger groups more likely to get right...

20 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI There are also known biases in how we consider statistics…

21 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI What do you think the chance or probability is of the following being injured or killed in a road accident this year (whether as a road user or a pedestrian)? A personal optimism bias... Base: c. 500 British adults aged Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 Mean probability: Someone = 4.1% You = 1.6% Actual probability = c1.2%?

22 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Imagine you have a life-threatening illness and your doctor has told you that you need an operation to treat it. How likely, if at all, are you to have this operation if your doctor tells you that......but focus on negative information Base: c. 500 British adults aged Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

23 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI But does it matter? Do people consider evidence – or think their leaders do?

24 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Politicians will take decisions partly based on what they think is right, and partly on evidence of what works. Do you think they base their decisions more on what they think is right than on evidence, more on evidence than on what they think is right, or do you think they consider them both in equal measure? Principle-based policy-making... Base: 1,034 British adults aged Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

25 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI People have different attitudes towards statistics. Which of the following do you agree with most?...but mirrors peoples own use of evidence Base: 1,034 British adults aged Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 Statistics are more important than my own experiences or those of my family and friends in helping me keep track of how the government is doing My own experiences or those of my family and friends are more important than statistics in helping me keep track of how the government is doing Both equally Neither/Dont know

26 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI More broadly, understanding numbers is undervalued?

27 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Which of the following things would you feel most embarrassed about admitting to friends and family? Were not embarrassed about lack of understanding of numbers... Base: 516 British adults aged 16-75, interviews conducted online 9 th -15 th April 2013 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

28 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Thinking about your child/if you had a child, which of the following would make you most proud?...and theres little pride in doing it well Base: 516 British adults aged 16-75, interviews conducted online 9 th -15 th April 2013 Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013

29 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Which can mean that publics views on policy issues are based on shaky ground….

30 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI In your opinion, is the number of people coming to live in the UK from other countries too high, too low or about right? Lot of concern about immigration.... Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 Base: 1,015 British adults aged Legitimate concerns, driven by number of factors...

31 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI...but there is also huge over-estimation of scale Base: 1,015 British adults aged 16-75, *British Social Attitudes Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 ; *Detailed country of birth and nationality analysis from the 2011 Census of England and Wales, (May 2013) ONS. **Immigration Statistics, January to March 2013, (May 2013) Home Office. What percentage of the United Kingdom population do you think are immigrants to this country (i.e. not born in the UK)?

32 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Were not alone in this... Source: Sides, J. and Citrin, J. (2007) How large the huddled masses? The causes and consequences of Public misperceptions about immigrant populations. Paper presented at 2007 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Sciences Association, Chicago, IL. Actual percentage foreign-born Estimated percentage foreign-born Lux Switz US UK Port Italy Den Ger France

33 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI According to the last Census in 2011, the percentage of the UK population that was born in another country is actually 13%. Why do you think the percentage is much higher? Why do people believe it is higher? Base: 376 British adults aged (all who thought the percentage of immigrants in the UK was 26% or higher) Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 People come into the country illegally so arent counted I still think the proportion is much higher than 13% What I see in my local area What I see when I visit other towns/cities I was just guessing Information seen on TV Information seen in newspapers The experiences of friends and family I misunderstood the question Other Dont know

34 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on? Were also very wrong on government spending... Base: 1,015 British adults aged Interest payments on the national debt Health Working age benefits Defence Overseas aid State pensions Education and schools Policing and criminal justice Transport Dont know Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, : get the data, (December 2012) Guardian; Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.

35 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI £52bn £107bn Which two or three, if any, of the following areas do you think the UK Government spends the most money on?...easier to see when re-order by actual spend... Base: 1,015 British adults aged Actual £48bn £82bn £37bn £8bn £74bn £6bn £12bn Interest payments on the national debt Health Working age benefits Defence Overseas aid State pensions Education and schools Policing and criminal justice Transport Dont know Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; Government spending by department, : get the data, (December 2012) Guardian; Medium-term forecast for all DWP benefits, (April 2013) DWP.

36 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Out of every £100 spent from the welfare budget, can you tell me how much of that is claimed fraudulently (i.e. people who dishonestly claim more benefits than they are entitled to)? Biggest misperception on benefit fraud... Base: 1,015 British adults aged Mean estimate £20 Actual 70p Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013; National Statistics fraud and error in the benefit system: preliminary 2012/13 estimates (Great Britain) first release, (June2013) DWP.

37 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI When you were answering the last question, which of the following activities, if any, were you thinking of as fraud? Although may be measuring different things? Base: 1,015 British adults aged Source: RSS/Ipsos MORI 2013 People providing false information to claim more benefits than they are entitled to People faking disabilities or illness Not reporting changes in circumstances e.g. a partner moving in Working cash-in-hand People on unemployment benefit not trying to find work People from abroad/immigrants claiming benefits People claiming benefits who havent paid any taxes/national insurance People having more children so that they are entitled to more benefits Dont know } 45%

38 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI So are we all out of a job?

39 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI If you do want to predict the future….. Sweet FA Prediction Model © The election result is decided by the colour of the home strip of the holders of the FA Cup at the time of the election Red and yellow = Labour Blue and white = Conservative

40 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Sweet FA Prediction Model © Correct? 1950LabWolves Yellow (Old Gold) 1951ConNewcastleBlack & White 1955ConNewcastleBlack & White 1959ConForestRedX 1964LabWest HamRed (claret) 1966LabLiverpoolRed 1970ConChelseaBlue F 74HungSunderland Red & White O 74LabLiverpoolRed

41 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Sweet FA Prediction Model © Correct? 1950LabWolves Yellow (Old Gold) 1951ConNewcastleBlack & White 1955ConNewcastleBlack & White 1959ConForestRedX 1964LabWest HamRed (claret) 1966LabLiverpoolRed 1970ConChelseaBlue F 74HungSunderland Red & White O 74LabLiverpoolRed

42 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Correct? 1979ConIpswichBlue 1983ConMan UtdRedX 1987ConCoventrySky blue 1992 ConSpursWhite 1997LabMan UtdRed 2001LabLiverpoolRed 2005LabMan UtdRed 2010ConMan UtdRedX Sweet FA Prediction Model © Brighton missed penalty in dying seconds of first final

43 Version 1 | Public© Ipsos MORI Thanks for listening


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