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Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations Gerardo Burciaga Mike Johnson Jeff Nissen 11/2/2007 EMIS 7310 EMIS Systems Engineering Design.

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Presentation on theme: "Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations Gerardo Burciaga Mike Johnson Jeff Nissen 11/2/2007 EMIS 7310 EMIS Systems Engineering Design."— Presentation transcript:

1 Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations Gerardo Burciaga Mike Johnson Jeff Nissen 11/2/2007 EMIS 7310 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

2 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007 Souvenir football program sales –Past performance probability distribution Programs SoldProbability Each program costs $0.80 –Sold game day for $2.00 –All unsold programs are recycled

3 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall a) Simulate the sales of programs at 10 football games. Use the last column in the random number table and begin at the top of the column Programs Sold Prob. Cum Prob. Interval to to to to to 100 Game Random NumberSold 172, , , , , , , , , ,700 average2,510

4 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall b) If the university decided to print 2,500 programs for each game, what would the average profit be for the 10 games simulated in part a) Game Random NumberSoldRevenueCostProfit 172,3004,6002,000$2, ,5005,0002,000$3, ,5005,0002,000$3, ,5005,0002,000$3, ,5005,0002,000$3, ,5005,0002,000$3, ,5005,0002,000$3, ,4004,8002,000$2, ,3004,6002,000$2, ,5005,0002,000$3,000 Average$2,940

5 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall c) If the university decided to print 2,600 programs for each game, what would the average profit be for the 10 games simulated in part a) Game Random NumberSoldRevenueCostProfit 172,3004,6002,080$2, ,5005,0002,080$2, ,6005,2002,080$3, ,5005,0002,080$2, ,6005,2002,080$3, ,6005,2002,080$3, ,5005,0002,080$2, ,4004,8002,080$2, ,3004,6002,080$2, ,6005,3002,080$3,120 Average$2,900

6 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall When poor weather occurs on the day of a football game, the crowd that attends the game is only half of capacity. When this occurs, the sales of programs decreases, and the total sales, are given in the following table: Programs SoldProbability Programs must be printed two days prior to game day. The university is trying to establish a policy for determining the number of programs to print based on the weather forecast.

7 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall a) If the forecast is for a 20% chance of bad weather, simulate the weather for 10 games with this forecast. Use column 4 of table 5.

8 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall b) Simulate the demand for programs at 10 games in which the weather is bad. Use column 5 of the random number table (table 5) and begin with the first number in the column. Programs Sold Prob. Cum Prob. Interval to to to to to 100 Game Random NumberSold 1531, , , , , , , , , ,500 Average1,600

9 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall c) Beginning with a 20% chance of bad weather and 80% chance of good weather, develop a flow chart that would be used to prepare a simulation of the demand for football programs for 10 games. Start Generate Random Number for Demand Generate Random Number for Weather Generate Demand from Good weather chart and random number demand Generate Demand from Bad weather chart and random number demand Compute: Programs sold, Revenue,Cost, Profit Good Weather? End of games simulated? End Yes No Yes No

10 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall d) Suppose there is a 20% chance of bad weather and the university has decided to print 2,500 programs. Simulate the total profits that would be achieved for 10 games.


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