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Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations Gerardo Burciaga Mike Johnson Jeff Nissen 11/2/2007 EMIS 7310 EMIS Systems Engineering Design.

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Presentation on theme: "Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations Gerardo Burciaga Mike Johnson Jeff Nissen 11/2/2007 EMIS 7310 EMIS Systems Engineering Design."— Presentation transcript:

1 Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations Gerardo Burciaga Mike Johnson Jeff Nissen 11/2/2007 EMIS 7310 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

2 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007 Souvenir football program sales –Past performance probability distribution Programs SoldProbability 23000.15 24000.22 25000.24 26000.21 27000.18 Each program costs $0.80 –Sold game day for $2.00 –All unsold programs are recycled

3 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007 19a) Simulate the sales of programs at 10 football games. Use the last column in the random number table and begin at the top of the column Programs Sold Prob. Cum Prob. Interval 23000.15 01 to 15 24000.220.3716 to 37 25000.240.6138 to 61 26000.210.8262 to 82 27000.18183 to 100 Game Random NumberSold 172,300 2602,500 3772,600 4492,500 5762,600 6952,700 7512,500 8162,400 9142,300 10852,700 average2,510

4 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007 19b) If the university decided to print 2,500 programs for each game, what would the average profit be for the 10 games simulated in part a) Game Random NumberSoldRevenueCostProfit 172,3004,6002,000$2,600 2602,5005,0002,000$3,000 3772,5005,0002,000$3,000 4492,5005,0002,000$3,000 5762,5005,0002,000$3,000 6952,5005,0002,000$3,400 7512,5005,0002,000$3,000 8162,4004,8002,000$2,800 9142,3004,6002,000$2,600 10852,5005,0002,000$3,000 Average$2,940

5 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007 19c) If the university decided to print 2,600 programs for each game, what would the average profit be for the 10 games simulated in part a) Game Random NumberSoldRevenueCostProfit 172,3004,6002,080$2,520 2602,5005,0002,080$2,920 3772,6005,2002,080$3,120 4492,5005,0002,080$2,920 5762,6005,2002,080$3,120 6952,6005,2002,080$3,120 7512,5005,0002,080$2,920 8162,4004,8002,080$2,720 9142,3004,6002,080$2,520 10852,6005,3002,080$3,120 Average$2,900

6 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007 20. When poor weather occurs on the day of a football game, the crowd that attends the game is only half of capacity. When this occurs, the sales of programs decreases, and the total sales, are given in the following table: Programs SoldProbability 12000.25 13000.24 14000.19 15000.17 16000.15 Programs must be printed two days prior to game day. The university is trying to establish a policy for determining the number of programs to print based on the weather forecast.

7 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007 20a) If the forecast is for a 20% chance of bad weather, simulate the weather for 10 games with this forecast. Use column 4 of table 5.

8 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007 20b) Simulate the demand for programs at 10 games in which the weather is bad. Use column 5 of the random number table (table 5) and begin with the first number in the column. Programs Sold Prob. Cum Prob. Interval 12000.25 01 to 25 13000.240.4926 to 49 14000.190.6850 to 68 15000.170.8569 to 85 16000.15186 to 100 Game Random NumberSold 1531,400 2741,500 351,200 4711,500 561,200 6491,300 7111,200 8131,200 9621,400 10691,500 Average1,600

9 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007 20c) Beginning with a 20% chance of bad weather and 80% chance of good weather, develop a flow chart that would be used to prepare a simulation of the demand for football programs for 10 games. Start Generate Random Number for Demand Generate Random Number for Weather Generate Demand from Good weather chart and random number demand Generate Demand from Bad weather chart and random number demand Compute: Programs sold, Revenue,Cost, Profit Good Weather? End of games simulated? End Yes No Yes No

10 EMIS Systems Engineering Design Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007 20d) Suppose there is a 20% chance of bad weather and the university has decided to print 2,500 programs. Simulate the total profits that would be achieved for 10 games.


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