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Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations

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Presentation on theme: "Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations"— Presentation transcript:

1 Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations
EMIS Systems Engineering Design Eastern State University: Football Program Sales Simulations Gerardo Burciaga Mike Johnson Jeff Nissen 11/2/2007 EMIS 7310 Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

2 EMIS Systems Engineering Design
Souvenir football program sales Past performance probability distribution Programs Sold Probability 2300 0.15 2400 0.22 2500 0.24 2600 0.21 2700 0.18 Each program costs $0.80 Sold game day for $2.00 All unsold programs are recycled Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

3 EMIS Systems Engineering Design
19a) Simulate the sales of programs at 10 football games. Use the last column in the random number table and begin at the top of the column Programs Sold Prob. Cum Prob. Interval 2300 0.15 01 to 15 2400 0.22 0.37 16 to 37 2500 0.24 0.61 38 to 61 2600 0.21 0.82 62 to 82 2700 0.18 1 83 to 100 Game Random Number Sold 1 7 2,300 2 60 2,500 3 77 2,600 4 49 5 76 6 95 2,700 51 8 16 2,400 9 14 10 85 average 2,510 Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

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19b) If the university decided to print 2,500 programs for each game, what would the average profit be for the 10 games simulated in part a) Game Random Number Sold Revenue Cost Profit 1 7 2,300 4,600 2,000 $2,600 2 60 2,500 5,000 $3,000 3 77 4 49 5 76 6 95 $3,400 51 8 16 2,400 4,800 $2,800 9 14 10 85 Average $2,940 Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

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19c) If the university decided to print 2,600 programs for each game, what would the average profit be for the 10 games simulated in part a) Game Random Number Sold Revenue Cost Profit 1 7 2,300 4,600 2,080 $2,520 2 60 2,500 5,000 $2,920 3 77 2,600 5,200 $3,120 4 49 5 76 6 95 51 8 16 2,400 4,800 $2,720 9 14 10 85 5,300 Average $2,900 Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

6 EMIS Systems Engineering Design
20. When poor weather occurs on the day of a football game, the crowd that attends the game is only half of capacity. When this occurs, the sales of programs decreases, and the total sales, are given in the following table: Programs Sold Probability 1200 0.25 1300 0.24 1400 0.19 1500 0.17 1600 0.15 Programs must be printed two days prior to game day. The university is trying to establish a policy for determining the number of programs to print based on the weather forecast. Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

7 EMIS Systems Engineering Design
20a) If the forecast is for a 20% chance of bad weather, simulate the weather for 10 games with this forecast. Use column 4 of table 5. Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

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20b) Simulate the demand for programs at 10 games in which the weather is bad. Use column 5 of the random number table (table 5) and begin with the first number in the column. Programs Sold Prob. Cum Prob. Interval 1200 0.25 01 to 25 1300 0.24 0.49 26 to 49 1400 0.19 0.68 50 to 68 1500 0.17 0.85 69 to 85 1600 0.15 1 86 to 100 Game Random Number Sold 1 53 1,400 2 74 1,500 3 5 1,200 4 71 6 49 1,300 7 11 8 13 9 62 10 69 Average 1,600 Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

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20c) Beginning with a 20% chance of bad weather and 80% chance of good weather, develop a flow chart that would be used to prepare a simulation of the demand for football programs for 10 games. Start Generate Random Number for Demand Number for Weather Generate Demand from Good weather chart and random number demand Bad weather chart and Compute : Programs sold , Revenue Cost Profit Good Weather ? End of games simulated End Yes No Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007

10 EMIS Systems Engineering Design
20d) Suppose there is a 20% chance of bad weather and the university has decided to print 2,500 programs. Simulate the total profits that would be achieved for 10 games. Case Study #2 – EMIS 7310 Fall 2007


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