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A Cost Benefit Analysis Prepared for Brian Bell, Elections Data Manager Government Accountability Board By: Dorothy Cheng, Brett Halverson, John Magnino,

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Presentation on theme: "A Cost Benefit Analysis Prepared for Brian Bell, Elections Data Manager Government Accountability Board By: Dorothy Cheng, Brett Halverson, John Magnino,"— Presentation transcript:

1 A Cost Benefit Analysis Prepared for Brian Bell, Elections Data Manager Government Accountability Board By: Dorothy Cheng, Brett Halverson, John Magnino, Daniel Marlin, Matthew Mayeshiba, Mai Choua Thao

2 What is it? Process of suspending inaccurate or inactive voter registrations Why do it? Maintaining accurate voter records Administrative cost savings In Wisconsin, VLM is mandated by state statute

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4 1. Current Policy (GAB Mass Mailing) 2. GAB Use of the Postal Services National Change of Address (NCOA) Database 3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing 4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database

5 Cost of postage 17% increase Cost of printing 336% increase Cost of NCOA $53,000 across 1,047 municipalities

6 1. Current Policy (GAB Mass Mailing) 2. GAB Use of the Postal Services National Change of Address (NCOA) Database 3. Municipal Use of Mass Mailing 4. Municipal Use of USPS NCOA Database 3. GAB Use of Mass Mailing and USPS NCOA Database (Hybrid Option)

7 No vote cast in election 2014 No vote cast in election 2016 GAB sends Notice of Suspension postcard to address on file Spring 2017

8 Voter moves Voter not flagged by NCOA GAB sends Notice of Suspension postcard to address on file Voter does not move Voter flagged by NCOA Voter stays on voter rolls indefinitely 2014 Within 6 months

9 Voter moves Voter not flagged by NCOA GAB sends Notice of Suspension postcard to address on file Voter does not move Voter flagged by NCOA 2014 Within 6 months No vote cast in two consecutive election cycles GAB sends Notice of Suspension postcard to address on file 2014 through

10 Postcards Sent by GAB Voter sends postcard back to continue registration Postcard returned as undeliverable Postcard is delivered, but not returned Municipal Clerk processes continuation Municipal Clerk inactivates voter registration After 30 days, GAB inactivates voter registration

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12 NCOA Startup Costs ($14,000) NCOA Contract ($5,750) Printing and Mailing One Postcard ($0.30) Staff Costs from Processing One Postcard Continuation ($0.96) Undeliverable ($1.09) Unreturned ($0.00)

13 Type I error: Cost of Incorrectly Leaving One Invalid Voter on the Voter Rolls ($0.05) Type II error: Cost of Incorrectly Inactivating a Valid Voter from the Voter Rolls ($8.36)

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15 Staff time costs associated with processing undeliverable postcards Quantifying Type II errors Additional social cost of errors Voter fraud Disenfranchisement

16 Questions?

17 Table 1. Number of Postcards Sent After the 2012 General Election, by Municipal-Level RangeNumber of Municipalities Percent of All Municipalities Number of Postcards Sent Percent of Total Postcards Sent 0 to % % 20 to % % 40 to % % 60 to % % 80 to % % 100 to % % 250 to % % 500 to % % 1000 to % % over % % Total Source: Four-Year Voter Record Maintenance Statistics by Municipality, Compiled by the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) on May 16, 2013.

18 Table 2. Number of Postcards Sent After the 2012 General Election, by County-Level RangeNumber of Counties Percent of All Counties Number of Postcards Sent Percent of Total Postcards Sent 300 to % % 1000 to % % 2000 to % % 5000 to % % over % % Total Source: Four-Year Voter Record Maintenance Statistics by County, Compiled by the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) on May 16, 2013.

19 Table Percent of Voters Identified As Inactive Date of List Maintenance Registered Voters Postcards Sent Percentage February 1, 20093,502,196313, % April 14, 20113,493,927240, % March 25, 20133,690,529299, %

20 Table Percent of Voters Registered with the NCOA State - Date of NCOARegistered Voters Voters Identified Percentage Minnesota ,387,783115, % Ohio ,031,860296, %

21 Number of names per poll book sheet20 Average unit cost of printing poll book sheet$ Number of poll books per polling place2 Average Number of elections in a year3 Type I Error Marginal Cost$.046

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