Presentation on theme: "HOUSEBUILDING: A LOST ENGLISH ART? Professor Sir Peter Hall Happold Memorial Lecture London 27 November 2007."— Presentation transcript:
HOUSEBUILDING: A LOST ENGLISH ART? Professor Sir Peter Hall Happold Memorial Lecture London 27 November 2007
The Barker Challenge: Build More Homes Need for massive increase: 200k/yr > 240k/yr > ?400k/yr? Will need brownfield + greenfield Political attack by shires – unholy alliance with cities The architects crusade: Barcelonise our cities Source: Kate Barker Review 2004
240,000 homes a year: not enough? UK population: sharp increase: 60.6m (2006) > 71.1m (2031): +10.5m (+19.1%) Huge increase on last projection (+6.1m, +10.2%) 5.6m (53.3% total) natural increase 4.9m (46.7% total) net migration England: +19.1%
Good and Bad Arguments Bad: we must save farmland Good: we should give people choice of access to public transport, shops, schools By public transport as well as car So: concentrate growth around transport interchanges And: raise densities there (pyramids of density)
UK: A barely developed countryside… UK: 14.3% developed; England: 19.1% These are overestimates: England: 10.6% : ca 8,000 hectares/year developed (=Runnymede)
Land Lying Idle… EU Set-Aside: June 2004, 476,000 hectares, almost 5.0% of England Greater SE: 100,270 hectares, 8.6% Essex 10.7% Hampshire 9.1% Oxfordshire 11.4% Bedfordshire 11.6% Far in excess of most generous estimates of land needed for housing!
A Continuing Issue? Brownfield, Greenfield and the Sequential Test Housing Completions: 1999, 2004 TotalBrownfieldGreenfield 1999 % s % s % change
A Continuing Issue? Brownfield, Greenfield and the Sequential Test Region Completions % change Brownfield % change Greenfield % change North North West Yorks Humber East Midlands West Midlands Eastern England London South East South West England
Housebuilding: Houses v Flats 1999, 2004 Dwellings: % of total HousesFlatsHousesFlats North East North West Yorks Humber East Midlands West Midlands*88* East of England*91* London South East South West England
Empty Land, Empty Homes Land banks: Are volume builders hoarding? Buy-to-leave: 670,000 empty homes, 300,000 long-term Joey Gardiner (R&R, 31 August): Central Leeds: 20% empty Similar stories: Manchester, Salford, Birmingham, Hull, London Manchester: up to 40% (Ron Hack, Ecotec) London: 70% bought off-plan
Future of the typical English town?
House prices/earnings 1999, 2006
What do people want? Earlier survey evidence Home Alone (Hooper et al 1998): only 10% want a flat; 33% wont consider a flat CPRE (Champion et al 1998): people want to live in/near country Hedges and Clemens (q. Breheny 1997): city dwellers least satisfied Conclusion: we hate cities!
What do people want? MORI for CABE, 2005 Over half the population want to live in a detached house 22% prefer a bungalow 14% a semi-detached house 7% a terraced house Detached house most popular choice, regardless of social status or ethnicity Period properties (Edwardian, Victorian, Georgian) most desirable overall: 37%
New Households, New Homes 80% one-person But only about one-third single never married Will demand more space per household: Separate kitchens/bathrooms/loos, Spare rooms, Work spaces Land saving reduces as densities increase: 30 dw/ha yields 60% of all potential gains, 40 dw/ha 70 per cent So biggest gains from minimising development below 20 dw/h, not increasing 40 dw/ha+ So: go for dw/ha with variations: higher close to transport services (Stockholm 1952!) But wont achieve same person densities as before!
Densification: Effects Land needed to accommodate 400 dwellings DensityArea required, ha. Dws./ha. Net Gross (with local facilities) Land Saved% %Land Saved% % TotalCumu-TotalCumu- Saving lativeSaving lative
Density Gradient (Rudlin+Falk)
Lessons from Land Use Public Transport needs minimum density: Bus: 25 dw/ha LRT: 60 dw/ha Exceed recent densities Big gain from dw/ha Plus pyramids up to 60 dw/ha round rail stations Urban Task Force Traditional – Stockholm, 1952! Or Edwardian suburbs!
Planning in Britain: A Verdict (1) Andrew Gilg: Planning in Britain: Understanding and Evaluating the Post- War System (London: Sage 2005)
Where Are We Now? Gilgs Verdict Middle-class bias Not always democratic Balances economic growth, conservation: a dilemma Increasingly market-driven No obvious alternative
Where Are We Now? Gilgs Verdict Big Achievement: urban containment; preservation of countryside Big Failure: development not sustainable: work, homes separate Another Failure: transport not integrated; transport system overloaded Need: integrated development; New Towns Compare: Containment of Urban England (1973)!
Making it happen: The 2004/2008 Acts Radical change – biggest for 35 years Working through at regional strategic level Planning Gain Supplement > Tariffs Can it solve the infrastructure deficit? The major issue in solving the housing crisis! But also: the NIMBY factor – will get worse? 2008: RSSs to RDAs
Where Are We Now? A 3-Pronged National Spatial Strategy 3 key needs: Grow SEE: Better connections on Sustainable Community Growth Corridors Shrinking the N-S Gap: Bring North, Midland Core Cities/City Regions closer to London Grow City Regions around Core Cities
South East England: Global Mega-City-Region
Urban Clusters (Hall+Ward 1998)
Sustainable Communities Corridors: Growing the SE into the Midlands…
Green Belt – or Green Blanket?
The Infrastructure Gap: Roger Tym Report
Planning Gain Supplement v. Tariffs Planning Gain Supplement: a national development land tax) on development gains Tariffs: similar, but levied by LPAs/vary LPA/LPA Related to infrastructure costs of Local Development Plan Section 106 retained: MK, Bedford… Local versus regional investment: local gain for local pain But problem of regional infrastructure: New rail connections; national motorway junctions (Article 14: A2, £92 million)
The North: Managed Decline? The great Pathfinder row How much to keep? How much to demolish? Are incentives perverse? YES: SAVE Britains Heritage NO: ODPM Family-Friendly Housing in Cities How much Greenfield? Issues: VAT, Infrastructure (Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool)
The Challenge Deliver the houses Defend a balanced portfolio: Brown/Greenfield Build sustainable suburbs But: can be New Towns too (seldom just that) Sustainable urban places – linked along transport corridors Fund the infrastructure/ Coordinate development, transport Countryside – for people! A big challenge: equal to 1950s, 1960s They did it – so can we!