Presentation on theme: "COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS"— Presentation transcript:
1COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS Lecture NotesECON 437/837: ECONOMICCOST-BENEFIT ANALYSISLecture Two
2PRINCIPLES UNDERLYING THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PROJECTS
3Interface of Project with the Markets Factor Markets → Project → Output Market(Labor & Capital)The role of microeconomics in project evaluation is to determine economic benefits or economic costs, which differ, more often than not, from financial benefits or financial Costs.
4Introduction to Economic Analysis The financial analysis of a project focuses on its financial attractiveness to its private investors.The economic analysis measures the impact of the project on the entire society.An economic analysis of a project helps determine whether the project increases the net wealth of a country’s society as a whole or not.A project with a negative economic net present value will serve to shrink the economy rather than grow it. For example, if $1,000 investment and NPV equals to $ Then the project uses $1,000 of resources and only produces $730 of value.
5Estimation of Economic Prices Financial prices are market prices, which are affected by the various tariffs, taxes, and subsidies.Economic values may differ from financial prices because:consumers valuation of an item may be greater than financial price they pay, e.g. road usage, water.financial costs may not be the true costs, e.g. Natural gas is sold to electricity utility in Egypt at a financial price that is only 1/3 of international opportunity cost.Calculating the economic values requires an understanding of how to integrate financial values, tariffs and taxes, handling and transportation costs, and exchange rate distortions.
6Commodity Specific Conversion Factors (CSCF) Financial prices are market prices, which incorporate all the tariffs, taxes, and subsidies. These market distortions can often be combined and expressed as a proportional distortion D.Where the combined rate of thedistortions D is expressed as aproportion of the financial price
7Commodity Specific Conversion Factors (CSCF) Financial prices are market prices, which incorporate all the tariffs, taxes, and subsidies.We use the conversion factor to convert each of the financial cashflow into the economic cost or benefit in the economic resource statement in the economic appraisal.Suppose, the project is using (purchasing) cotton yarn, the relevant financial price to the project would be the demand price, Pd, (the price paid by the project). The financial price to the project is R22,239 and the economic value is R18,794. The economic value is less than financial price because the economic value doesn’t include tax.
8Example of Financial and Economic Cashflows: the Case of Electricity Project Table of Parameters for Financial AnalysisPrice of Electricity2.20Rs/KwhLong term investmentProduction of Electricity1,500Gwh/yearMachinery8,000Equipment1,290Gas0.25per KwhFinancial CostLand(Given as subsidy)300of Capital12%Coal0.15Cashflow: Financial Points of View (millions Rs.)Year200120022003200420052006InflowsSales3300Land (Subsidy)Liquidation value of investmentLiquidation value of landTotal InflowsOutflows80001290375225Labor Wages120Total Outflows9,590720Net Cashflows-92902580-1283Table of Parameters for Economic AnalysisWillingness to pay for electricity3.00Rs/KwhEconomic Opportunity cost of Labor80%of financial wage billForeign Exchange Premium15%Subsidy on Gas30% of Financial CostEconomic Opportunity cost of capital10%Resource flow: Economic Points of View (millions Rs.)YearCF*200120022003200420052006InflowsSales4500450045004500Land (Subsidy)0.00Liquidation value of land1.00300Total Inflows4500450045004500300OutflowsLand1.00300Long term investmentMachinery1.159200Equipment1.1514840.00Gas**1.50560.63560.6560.6560.6Coal1.15258.75258.8258.8258.8Labor Wages0.8096969696Total Outflows10,984915915915915Net Cashflows-109843585358535853585300566*CF = Conversion Factors**CF for gas = [(1.3)*(1.15)]/1 = 1.5
9Three Postulates Underlying the Economic Evaluation Methodology These postulates are based on a number of fundamental concepts of welfare economics.The competitive demand price for an incremental unit of a good or service measures its economic value to the demander and hence its economic benefit.The competitive supply price for an incremental unit of a good or service measures its economic resource cost.Costs and benefits are added up without regard to who the gainers and losers are.
10Economic Value of Local Calls for Rural Customers The implication of these postulates for the economic analysis of a projectFirst PostulateThe competitive demand price (or the consumer’s willingness to pay) for each additional unit of consumption measures the economic benefit or the economic price of each incremental unit.The demand curve reflects indifference on part of the consumer between having a particular unit of a good at that price and spending the money on other goods and services.Economic Value of Local Calls for Rural CustomersDemandAQ0P1 = 0.120CData Traffic (minutes/ year)Q1(MWTP)P0 = 0.280Tariff /Coping Cost (US$/minute)Consumer Surplus (P1AC)Payment for servicesEconomic value = Q0ACQ1 = Willingness to Pay
11The implication of these postulates for the economic analysis of a project (Cont’d) Second PostulateThe competitive supply price of each incremental unit of a good measures the economic cost of the resources (inputs) that goes into the production of that unit.Suppliers will be indifferent between selling incremental units of the good at their supply prices and using the factors to produce other goods and services.The supply (marginal cost) curve represents the minimum prices that suppliers are willing to accept for successive units of a good or service that they supply.In a competitive market these minimum prices represent the marginal opportunity cost of these goods.Installation (Marginal Cost) of one more terminal and demand for rural telephone callsCostMCD2D1OQ0Q1Q2Number of rural telephone calls
12The implication of these postulates for the economic analysis of a project (Cont’d) Third PostulateCosts and benefits are added up without regard to who the gainers and losers are.Focus on economic efficiencyShould the project be valued differently depending on whom are the beneficiaries and the losers? – Not by the economic analysis.This methodology measures the net economic benefit of the project by subtracting the total resource costs used to produce the project’s output from the total benefits of the output.This approach attempts to separate the social aspects of project appraisal from the economic efficiency aspects.
13Measuring Economic Benefits of a Project’s Output Output from a project affects the market equilibrium. The changes in quantity demanded, quantity supplied and price translate into cost savings due to cuts in production of inefficient producers and an increase in consumption because of lowering of the market price.
14Economic Benefits of Project Output (No Distortions) PriceS0Economic Value= WxsPs+WxdPdIf no output market distortions, then:Ps = Pd = PmAS0 + ProjectCP0mEGFP1mBDD0QuantityQs1Q0d1QTQValue of Resources SavedValue of Increased ConsumptionFinancial benefit is P1m (Q1d-Q1s)Economic benefit is Q1sGCQ0 + Q0CFQ1d
15Measuring the Economic Costs of a Project’s Inputs A project requires inputs for production. Demand of inputs by the project deprives some consumers in the market because of an increase in the market price. The rise in the market price invites additional investment in input markets, depriving funds for other sectors. These costs together constitute project’s gross economic costs.Measuring the Economic Costs of a Project’s Inputs
16Economic Costs of Project Input (No Distortions)Qd1sSPmABCUnitsRand/UnitD0+PValue of postponed consumptionValue of additional resources
17Small versus Large Changes in Prices Often the quantity produced by a single project or purchased as inputs by a project, is relatively small compared to the size of the market and hence there is little or no change in the market price.In such a situation and given that we are operating in an undistorted market, the gross financial receipts will be equal to the gross economic benefits. The triangle ABC is very small.A difference arises only when the quantity produced by the project or demanded by the project is sufficiently large to have an impact on the prevailing market price in the sector.
18Weights expressed in terms of elasticities: Wxs =Supply Elasticity Supply Elasticity - Demand Elasticity - =Wxd =Demand Elasticity Supply Elasticity - Demand Elasticity - = (defined positively) own price elasticity of supply = (defined negatively) own price elasticity of demandWeights expressed in terms of elasticities:WxsWxd-These are long-run elasticities of demand and supply.They are an average elasticity representing for the adjustments made by the market.
19Calculating the Economic Value of Non-Tradable Goods Economic Value = Wxs P s Wxd P d= weighted average of supply (Ps) and demand (Pd) priceWhere:Ws + Wd = 1If rationing then Ws = 0 and Wd = 1Traded: Importable Ws = 1 and Wd = 0Exportable Ws = 0 and Wd = 1Non-traded Ws 0 and Wd 0Three classes of goods: Ws Wd2/3 1/31/2 1/21/3 2/3
20Applying the Postulates to Determine Economic Evaluation of Non-Tradable Goods and Services in Distorted MarketsDistortions are defined as market imperfections.The most common types of these distortions are in the form of government taxes and subsidies. Others include quantitative restrictions, price controls, and monopolies.We need to take the type and level of distortions as given and not changed by the project when estimating the economic costs and benefits of projects.The task of the project analyst or economist is to select the projects that increase the net wealth of country, given the current and expected regime of distortions in the country.
211. Sales Taxes Levied on Output of Project Economic Benefit of an Output Supplied by a Project--- when a tax is imposed on sales ---Ws P0m + Wd P0m(1+t)Economic BenefitsValue of Resources SavedValue of Increased ConsumptionFinancial benefit is P1m (Q1d-Q1s) Economic benefit is Q1sCBB’A’Q1dExampleWx s =1/3, Wx d=2/3 Pm=120, tx =0.15Pe = 1/3(120) + 2/3(120)(1+0.15) = 132Pe = (1.15) = 132Pd = Pm + T if unit taxPd = Pm(1+t) if ad valorem
222. Subsidies on Production Economic Benefits of a New Project-- when a production subsidy is present --Value of Resources SavedValue of Increased ConsumptionFinancial benefit is P1m (Q1d-Q1s) Economic benefit is Q1sA’B’Q0+ Q0BCQ1dOr if subsidy is proportion of total cost,ExampleWxs =1/3, Wxd=2/3 Pm=120, K=0.40Pe = 1/3(120/(1-0.40)) + 2/3(120) = 146and
233. Sales Taxes Levied on Input of Project Economic Cost of an Input Demanded by a Project--- when a tax is imposed on sales ---Value of postponed consumptionValue of additional resourcesFinancial cost is P1d (Q1s-Q1d) Economic cost is Q1dC’B’ Q0 + Q0 BAQ1sExampleWxs = 0.25, Wxd = 0.75, P0 m = 90, t = 0.15Pe = 0.25 [90(1+0.15)] = 100
244. Production Input Subsidized Economic Cost of an Input Demanded by a Project--- when an input subsidy is present ---PriceSPEGFJBDQd1s1QuantityHAs1m1=/ (1-k)m0s0d0D0+ProjectS0CIAfter SubsidyD0Value of Postponed ConsumptionValue of Additional ResourcesFinancial Cost is P1m (Q1d-Q1s) Economic Cost is Q1dEFQ0 + Q0GHQ1SEconomic CostsWxs+ Wxd Pm x0P(1-k)ExampleWxs = 0.25, Wxd = 0.75, Pm = 90, k = 0.40Pe = 0.25[90/(1-0.4)] (90) = 105
255. Sales Tax and Production Subsidy on Input Economic cost of a Project-- When a production subsidy and a sales tax are present --D0Q0EDn+PHPzJGQ2dP0mP0s=P0m/(1-kz)S0+subsidyDnQ1sQ1dQzBCNAP1mS0P1s=P1m/(1-kz)P0d=P0m (1+tz)P1d=P1m (1+tz)MLURValue of additional resourcesValue of postponed consumptionFinancial Cost is P1m (Q1d-Q1s) Economic Cost is Q1dMGQ0 + Q0RLQ1sExampleWxs = 0.25, Wxd = P0m = 90, t = 0.15, k = 0.4P1s = 90/(1-0.4) = 150 , P1d = 90(1+0.15) =103 , Pe = 0.25(150) (103) = 114
26- Example of Electricity Supply by Thermal Generation - Economic Value of Increase in Quantity Demanded of an Input in the Case of the Infinite Supply Elasticity- Example of Electricity Supply by Thermal Generation -PriceQ0QuantityPs=PmD0+PD0Q1Project demand (Q1 – Q0) of a non-tradable inputWs = 1 and Wd = 0If no direct subsidy then Ps = Pm
276. Environmental Externalities A Project with Pollution in the LakeFinancial benefit is P1m (Q1d-Q1s) Economic benefit is Q1sA’B’BCQ1d
28Relationship between Market Prices and Demand and Supply Prices under Various Types of Distortions
29Applying the Postulates to Determine Economic Evaluation of Tradable Goods and services The framework for the estimation of economic prices was presented for the case of non-tradable goods.They are also applicable to the valuation of tradable goods.These postulates are general in nature and are also applicable to tradable goods.The methodology for the estimation of the economic prices of internationally tradable goods and services when there are distortions in their markets is also based on the three postulates.These distortions may include customs duties on imported inputs of a project or those imported items that the project output will replace or substitute.
30The Economic Opportunity Cost of Capital One of the practical ways to measure this parameter is to use the economic opportunity cost of funds that are drawn from the capital market.In a small, open and developing economy, there are three alternative sources for these public funds:The first source comes from those resources that would have been invested in other investment activities that have been either displaced or postponed by our project’s extraction of funds from the capital market.The second source is from individual savers whose resources would have been spent on private consumption due to an increase in domestic savings.The third source is additional foreign capital inflows.
31Foreign Exchange Externality The foreign exchange externality is meant to capture any indirect external welfare effects that result from a project's incremental use or production of foreign exchange.The source of this externality lies in the divergence that exists between the marginal value of a unit of foreign exchange and the marginal cost of earning that unit.This divergence is ultimately due to import tariff, export taxes, sales taxes, excise taxes and any other tax or quantitative restrictions distortions in the markets underlying the demand and supply of foreign exchange.
32The Economic Opportunity Cost of Labor In the labor market there are a variety of factors that may create a divergence between the market wage and the economic cost of a worker at the project.This economic cost of employment reflects both the value of the market and non-market activities undertaken by the worker prior to joining the work force at the project and all other factors that govern the desirability of working at the project.It will also take into account any tax differentials that the worker may face as a result of moving to the project from another employment or unemployment.
33Valuation of Non-Market Goods/Services Revealed preference method: using the data obtained by observing the actual choices made by individuals in related markets.State preference method: refer to direct survey approach to estimating the value placed on non-market goods or services.E.g., apply to labor market: trade-off between higher wages and occupational risks of injury or death (value of life); apply to property market: house price related to location, amenity, noise.Other notes:Multipliers (w/o the projects, capital can be used elsewhere and have multiplier effects elsewhere – income/employment multipliers)Secondary benefits (i.e., road projects: benefits by increased local business are already captured by traffic; other additional resource costs need to be captured)