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Tendências de longo prazo do comércio internacional e dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos Uma introdução quantitativa baseada no International Trade.

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Presentation on theme: "Tendências de longo prazo do comércio internacional e dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos Uma introdução quantitativa baseada no International Trade."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tendências de longo prazo do comércio internacional e dos investimentos estrangeiros diretos Uma introdução quantitativa baseada no International Trade Statistics (WTO) e UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics

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44 Commodities UNCTAD's analysis of newly released commodity price statistics suggests that 2005 was a pivotal year for commodity prices. There has been an upward trend since 2002 due to increasing demand - mainly in China and India - and to speculation on commodity markets. In 2005, the UNCTAD commodity index expressed in current US dollars was roughly 12% higher than in 2004, mainly as a result of price hikes in the metal and mineral sectors (+26%). There are now signs that this increase might be losing pace owing to slower economic growth, the withdrawal of speculative hedge funds and changes in stocking strategies, in particular for metals. Real dollar prices over the long term: overall commodity prices about one-third lower than the average for

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50 Trends in trade flows and tariffs Several trends relating to trade and market access conditions involving developing countries and LDCs could be highlighted. During , the nominal value of exports from developing countries increased more than fivefold. As to LDCs' exports, their nominal value increased by almost 260% over the same period. Trade among developing countries has equally intensified substantially since the 1990s. In 1990, imports from developing countries directed to developed countries were more than four times those directed to other developing countries. This figure fell to a mere one and a half in The same trend is also observed for LDCs. The analysis of the composition of manufactures reveals that the share of high-skill manufactures has almost doubled for developing countries as a whole (from 16.8 % to 32.7%), while it has decreased by one third for LDCs alone (from 3% to 2%).

51 Trends in trade flows and tariffs Participation of many developing countries in dynamic and new sectors of world trade is acting as both a driver and an outcome of the changing geography of international trade. Developing countries currently account for 30 per cent export share of the 20 most dynamic merchandise product groups.

52 Trends in trade flows and tariffs Participation of many developing countries in dynamic and new sectors of world trade is acting as both a driver and an outcome of the changing geography of international trade. Developing countries currently account for 30 per cent export share of the 20 most dynamic merchandise product groups.

53 Trends in trade flows and tariffs In general, the level of protection for goods coming from developing countries face lower average weighted tariffs in developed countries markets than in developing countries markets, although developing countries and LDCs face higher tariffs in developed countries than in trade among developed countries themselves. The latter phenomenon is known as a "tariff bias" against developing countries. However, a general downward tendency in such protection is also observed. The major exception is textiles and clothing products, and footwear.

54 Trends in trade flows and tariffs Tariff peaks and tariff escalation remain important concerns for developing countries that require consideration and negotiating solutions, particularly in the Doha Round, when assessing potential development gains from trade.

55 Trends in trade flows and tariffs Non-Tariff Barriers of concern to developing countries can be summarized as follows. –First, in their access and entry to developed countries markets, technical measures and price control measures are the most typical concerns for developing countries. –Second, in trade between developing countries, customs and administrative entry procedures, para-tariff measures (e.g. import surcharges and additional charges) and other regulatory measures affecting, for example, infrastructure, protection of intellectual property rights and institutions are among trade obstacles. –Third, products of export interest to developing countries, such as fisheries products, electrical equipment, pharmaceutical and textiles are more affected by NTBs than other sectors.


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