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Www.akf.dk Assessing acceptability of two onshore wind power development schemes: A test of viewshed effects and the cumulative effects of wind turbines.

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Presentation on theme: "Www.akf.dk Assessing acceptability of two onshore wind power development schemes: A test of viewshed effects and the cumulative effects of wind turbines."— Presentation transcript:

1 www.akf.dk Assessing acceptability of two onshore wind power development schemes: A test of viewshed effects and the cumulative effects of wind turbines Jacob Ladenburg a Mette Termassen b Berit Hasler b Jens-Olav Dahlgaard a a Danish Institute of Governmental Research, Nyropsgade 37, 1602 Copenhagen V, Denmark b Department of Environmental Science, University of Aarhus EWEA 2012 Copenhagen

2 What spatial relations drives acceptance of wind power? Several studies have analysed the relation between attitude and distance to wind turbines (Ladenburg and Møller, RSER, 2011) Attitude might be driven by other elements that distance. Seing one turbine daily 1 km from the residence might be different from seeing 15 turbines 2 km from residence Few studies have estimated the cumulative effects on acceptance (Ladenburg & Dahlgaard AE) www.akf.dk

3 The survey 1072-1076 sampled from web panel in 2005 Attitudes towards different themes related to wind power development High income house holds and respondents with longer educations overrepresented compared to the Danish population. www.akf.dk

4 Cumulative effects measures Stated number of wind turbines seen daily – 0-5 – 6-10 – 11-20 – >20 – Dont recall www.akf.dk

5 Wind power scenarios General development scheme Increase the number of on-land turbines (particular of interest in newer wind turbine nations) Replacement of smaller and older turbines with new and larger ones (particular of interest in older wind turbine nations) www.akf.dk

6 Results I Older respondents are more negative – supporting the general age effects found in the literature Mixed educational effects No direct effects from viewshed to onshore or offshore wind turbines www.akf.dk

7 Results II: (logit model) www.akf.dk Standard errors in []. + p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001 a The variables are jointly significant at a 90% level of confidence. b Max 7 yrs. Elem. Sch. Predicts perfectly, all are positive. More Onshore Wind Turbines Replacing Smaller Turbines with Larger Turbines Main Model View Onshore Model No View Onshore Model Main Model View Onshore Model No View Onshore Model No.Turb.6-10 -0.358 [0.306] -0.984 a, + [0.648] -0.231 [0.367] 0.0927 [0.345] -0.596 [0.757] 0.202 [0.400] No.Turb.11-20 -0.548 [0.345] -0.988 a, + [0.647] -0.478 [0.448] -0.265 [0.375] -1.074 [0.729] 0.0112 [0.538] No.Turb.>20 -0.794 * [0.391] -1.435 * [0.675] -0.504 [0.597] -0.395 [0.435] -1.218 [0.776] -0.167 [0.665] No.Turb. D. R. -0.00177 [0.243] -0.496 [0.640] 0.0759 [0.264] -0.0183 [0.262] -1.143 [0.714] 0.189 [0.278] Constant 3.305 *** [0.513] 3.148 *** [0.935] 3.446 *** [0.619] 4.356 *** [0.647] 5.825 *** [1.365] 4.007 *** [0.726] N10762608161076243816 LL(0)-425.4-111.6-313.2-367.9-90.82-274.8 LL(β)-398.2-103.9-291.8-346.7-82.67-260.4 Chi250.6416.5536.9637.9015.2928.53

8 Results: Predicted probabilities www.akf.dk

9 Conclusion Cumulative effects seem to be of importance in the planning of future wind power The cumulative effects appears to be a function of wind turbines densities and viewshed effects The cumulative effects also seems to be dependent on the type of wind power development schemes

10 Thank you for listening Contact info: Jacob Ladenburg Danish Institute of Governmental Research (AKF) jal@akf.dk +45 42449 3610 www.akf.dk


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