Presentation on theme: "Impact of Semiconductor Technology on Aerospace Electronic System Design, Production, and Support National Software and Complex Electronic Hardware Standardization."— Presentation transcript:
1 Impact of Semiconductor Technology on Aerospace Electronic System Design, Production, and Support National Software and Complex Electronic Hardware Standardization ConferenceJuly 26-28, 2005Norfolk, VAThis is an example of a Title template. Your individual style may vary. However, for your title slide please include:Content classification top and bottom as appropriate (e.g., Boeing Proprietary, Export-Controlled, etc.)Presentation titleYour nameNames of other authors / contributorsContact phone numbers, addressesAcknowledge the conferenceBackground color / picture if desiredLloyd Condra, Boeing Phantom Works(206)Gary Horan, FAA(781) –
2 Avionics Experiences: 1990-Present Today:Nanometer Scale3-7 yr. life, targeted productsEarly 1990s: COTS Parts Mil-spec mfrs. exit marketMid 1990s: DMS 60% of parts are obsolete within 5 yearsWe “succeeded” because COTS parts were more reliable than we had thought, and because of improvements in quality and reliabilityWe are “coping” through aggressive responses, and beneficial, but temporary circumstancesWe cannot “succeed” or “cope” with tactics that we have used in the pastStrategic, long-term solution based on cooperation between semiconductor device and avionics industriesTactical, short-term, and ad hoc solutionsEach “solution” introduces a future DMS problem.
3 COTS-DMS-Obsolescence must be addressed as system-of-systems problem System B – The PlatformsReactive, program-specific COTS implementationSystem A – The Supply ChainSystem C – The Design-Build-Use Cycle
4 Outline Structural Changes in the Avionics Supply Chain Technological Advances in the Semiconductor Device IndustryPart Level SolutionsSystem and Architectural SolutionsSummary
5 Challenges Structural Changes in the Avionics Supply Chain Migration away from military and aerospace marketsGrowth of the Asian electronics industrySemiconductor product definition and design processesElimination of lead and other hazardous materialsTechnological Advances in the Semiconductor Device Industry (< 100nm technology)Short service life (3-10 years)Narrow Temperature RangesSusceptibility to atmospheric radiation
6 The Aerospace Electronics Supply Chain 1. Parts & materials suppliers2. Board assemblers3. Avionics OEMs, Logistics, Maintenance and Repair4. Platform integrators5. Operators & regulatorsContract Mfg.PartsBoardsAerospace CaptiveSolderSuppliers CustomersNon-aerospace ControlAerospace Control
7 The Global Electronics Market Space – <1%201020103040198019902000Military % of TotalAvionics EquipmentPiece partsEquipment & part trends are parallelMilitary – 30%Air Transport – 47%GeneralAviation – 23%
8 Worldwide Semiconductor Markets: Military and Aerospace market share declined for 4½ Decades1995 = 1.6% = .5%1994 Perry Directive accelerated COTS usage and Military IC demiseAsia-Pacific market surpassed US in 2002; gap will widen Military &Aerospace User’s best hope = appear as ONE customer!Source: Semiconductor Industry Association
9 Global Markets The World’s Largest Markets, by population: China: 1,300,000,000India: 1,065,000,000European Union: ,000,000United States: ,000,000Source: WSTS/SIA% Share of Global Semiconductor Consumption15%20%25%30%35%40%45%199719981999200020012002200320042005The AmericasJapanEuropeAsia PacificAsia is forecasted to nearly double its share of world consumption of semiconductors from 1997 from 22% to 40% in 2005.Two-thirds of this gain occurred in as a result of a major shift in electronic equipment manufacturing from the Americas (US) to the Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) region. A major cause is the outsourcing by US companies to reduce costs and gain access to the emerging markets such as China. Japan is also being affected by this trend to a lesser extent.The European share is stable due to the large share of industrial and automotive electronic production that cannot be easily outsourced from the region.The Americas market is forecasted to go from the largest consumption region in the world to being the third largest, behind Asia and Europe.“China’s technological growth is phenomenal. The rapid development of semiconductor technologies is a measure of China’s success in obtaining and advancing technologies. The U.S. focus has been on war and security issues, while loss of technological dominance decreases future economic power.”M.G. Pecht, IEEE Transactions on CPT, 09/2004
10 China’s Technology is Catching Up Rapidly 1021015.01000.130.5010-1Feature Size, μ0.1010-2State of the art in other countries10-4State of the art in China10-51972197619801984198819921996200020042008Source: M.G. Pecht, IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies, September 2004
11 Semiconductor Device Design Tradeoffs made amongPerformance (speed, no. of transistors, etc.)Reliability (lifetime)Cost (die/wafer, yield, etc.)Time to marketExpected sales volume and market shareDifferent design rules for different market segmentsDesign rules adjusted to ‘equalize’ wearout mechanismsData sheet ‘negotiated’ among engineering, marketing, accountingTests performed to assure minimum performance and ‘acceptable probability of reliability’Acceptance criterion is ‘zero failures’Performance and reliability capability not investigated beyond above requirementsSpecific models used to accelerate key failure mechanismsDevice put on marketImmediate work is started on performance enhancement and cost reductionPublished data sheet parameters may not exactly match actual device performance
12 Microcircuit Design What We’re Used To: > 5 yrs. Decades Specifica-tionData SheetEnvironmentDesign & QualificationStable rulesSingle versionStandard testsProductionStable processesService> 5 yrs.DecadesThe Way It Is:ProductionContinuous improvementCost reductionSpecification, Design, & QualificationTradeoffs among performance, lifetime, cost, time to market, expected salesMultiple versions for multiple target marketsMarket-specific design rules and qual testsZero failures in qualificationServiceData sheet may vary18-24 months3-10 years
13 Service Life Capability (years) Disappearing Margins1.0μ0.1μ0.35μ0.18μ199019952000200510100Service Life Capability (years)Typical service life goal (10 yrs.)MarginSource: E. Snyder (Sandia), IRPS, 2002)Device fallout in screening (uprating)0.000.501.001.502.001996199719981999200020012002% FalloutSource: Sypris, Inc.Most semiconductor devices are designed with 3-10 year service life goals
14 Impact on System Reliability 28,00025,000 hrs.Support costs increase by 25%24,000System MTBF20,00019,000 hrs.16,0002000200220042006200820102012Assumptions:System includes 1,000 equivalent semiconductor devices, and system MTBF of 25,000 hours in 2002Decrease in system MTBF due only to increase in semiconductor device failure rateDevice failure rate increases by >1.5 FITs per year
15 Semiconductor Device Wearout Models Electromigration: migration of atoms in a conductor (Black’s equation)Hot Carrier Effects: high energy carriers degrade oxide; Lifetime related to drain voltage & VddOxide Breakdown (TDDB): Formation of a conduction path through gate oxide
16 Preliminary Results: System Design Tradeoffs Time-dependent dielectric breakdownElectromigrationHot carriersAll mechanismsWithin limits, tradeoffs may be made among lifetime, speed, voltage, and temperature.D is the “derating factor,” i. e., the ratio of lifetime at “derated” conditions (voltage, temperature) to that at “data sheet” conditions.
17 The Meaning of Life? Or?? Wearout (intrinsic) 10 1 2010, b < 1.2 100Log time (years in service)Infant mortality (extrinsic)Failure RateThe wearout portion of the bathtub curve is not well-understood, and it varies among manufacturers101201020001990100Log time (years in service)Infant mortality (extrinsic)Failure RateWearout (intrinsic)Or??There is not yet a compelling reason to change system safety and reliability analysis processes
18 Effects of Atmospheric Radiation 0.80.050.0035651.20.070.01902.50.150.02513080.245250Critical Charge (Si), fCSensitive Depth (SOI), Sensitive Volume (Si), 3Technology Node, nmP. Roche, G. Gasiot, K. Forbes, V. O’Sullivan, V. Ferlet, “Comparisons of Soft Error Rate for SRAMs in Commercial SOI and Bulk Below the 130 nm Technology Node,” 2003 IEEE Nuclear and Space Radiation Effects Conference.Current estimates for SEU rates are probably conservative by >2xAlmost all testing is done on memories, but some tests on processors indicate they may be more susceptible to atmospheric radiation0.20.40.60.811.21.420406080100Altitude, Thousands of Feet1-10 MeV Neutron Flux, n/cm²secTest “portability” is not assured
19 Avionics Industry Response to Effects of Atmospheric Radiation on System Design Use error-correcting codeIncrease part redundancyMay have to increase testingUse the methods of IEC TS 62396, Standard for the Accommodation of Atmospheric Radiation Effects via Single Event Effects within Avionics Equipment
20 Aerospace Qualified Electronic Components (AQEC) Assure qualification, quality, reliability, design stability, etc.Assess the component’s capability to satisfy essential aerospace requirementsEvaluate part availability and business issuesStart with the device manufacturer’s “COTS” componentIf necessary, issue a new part number and data sheet
21 AQEC Benefits and Status Promotes communication between semiconductor device and aerospace industryMinimizes and reduces need for uprating or upscreeningPart performance characterized for avionicsDMSMS ManagementImproves part availabilityComponent RoadmapsImproves configuration controlEnables system design tradeoffs (performance, lifetime, supply voltage, speed, temperature, etc.)Enables ‘higher-level’ system optionsWho’s InvolvedSemiconductor device mfrs.Part distributorsAvionics manufacturersAirframe integratorsDoDNASAFAAIndustry standards bodiesStatusAQEC Definition approved by GEIA Avionics Process Management Committee (APMC)AQEC Standard out for vote by GEIA G-12, GEIA APMC, JEDEC JC 13Under consideration by IEC TC 107, Process Management for Avionics(Review the benefits listed. Use the bottom statement in italics to emphasize that this is a COTS process that precludes the use of a specific military system. Indicate that COTS component suppliers are not interested in separate commercial an military applications of AQEC; therefore it is assured to be dual-use.
22 AQEC Enables Avionics System Functional Design Stability Part configuration migratesAvionics function certifiedCSCSCSAvionics function remains stableC-AQEC CharacterizationS-Part configuration remains stable
23 Architectural and System Options Federated SystemsSystem functions implemented by LRUs and related sensors, activators, etc.Distributed throughout the aircraftParts in various environmentsIntegrated Modular SystemsCentral computing, shared across functionsMaximum commonality of modules“Dumb” or “simple” sensors, actuators, backplanes, etc.Disposable or returnable elementsFacilitates deferred maintenance
24 System Considerations The most common approach to obsolescence (DMS) is to find replacement parts. It cannot be sustained as use of sub-100 nm COTS increasesMany component issues must be addressed totally or partially at the system architecture and design levelsTwo promising system design approaches (from a component point of view) are modular electronics and disposable modulesWhy is aerospace the only major industry that still designs repairable circuit cards?
25 Lead-free Electronics Directive 2002/95/EC:New electrical and electronic equipment put on the market after 1 July 2006 shall not contain lead or other hazardous materials2002/95/EC is “official” only in EuropeAlthough likely exempt from legislation, aerospace will be “swept along” in the transition
26 There Will Be New Component Leads and Plating, Board Materials, and Assembly Materials and Processes • There is no single “drop-in” replacementfor Sn-Pb (tin-lead) eutectic solder- All viable Pb-free alternatives havehigher melting points,- Reliability is inconsistent• Higher processing temperatures (up to 260°C)impact component design and reliability- Potential latent defects• Mixture of metallurgies on a single circuit board- Questionable reparability; no long term reliability data- Configuration control and obsolescence concerns• No consensus on test protocols yet• Component suppliers are commonly (>50%) switching to pure tin plating- Increased risk of tin whisker related failuresCracked Solder JointSnPbSn0.7CuPhoto Courtesy of NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterTin Whisker
27 There Is No “Standard” Pb-free Alloy Reflow SolderingWave SolderingComponent LeadsMaterialEUJapanSn-Ag-Cu64%61%Sn-Ag89Sn-Bi4Sn-Ag-Cu-Bi-5Sn-Zn-BiSn-Cu1OthersDon’t know2015MaterialEUJapanSn-Ag-Cu42%64%Sn-Ag1720Sn-Bi85Sn-Ag-Cu-Bi4-Sn-Zn-Bi2Sn-Cu1OthersDon’t know25MaterialUSJapanEUPure Sn39%30%26%Pd-Au1415Au-Ni6-13Sn-Ag-Cu910Sn-Ag38Sn-Bi145Sn-Cu21AgDon’t knowAuSn-Ag-Cu-Bi2Ni-PdSn-Zn-BiNi-Pd-AuSn-PbOthersEU: Survey responses from 52 organizationsJapan: 95 assemblers and 100 suppliersUS: 71 suppliersSources (summarized by CALCE, U of MD):Japan Engineering and Information Technology Assocation Tech. Rep. “Result and Analysis of Pb-free Survey,” pp , 2002Soldertech at Tin Technology 2nd European Roadmap, 2003
28 Lead-free Electronics in Aerospace Project Working Group (LEAP WG) AIA - Aerospace Industries AssociationAMC - Avionics Maintenance ConferenceGEIA - Government Engineering and Information Technologies AssociationIncludes all aerospace industry stakeholdersProducing common industry standards (level playing field)GEIA-STD ,Performance Standard for Aerospace and Military Electronic Systems Containing Lead-free SolderGEIA-STD , Standard for Mitigating the Risks of Tin in High-Reliability ApplicationsGEIA-HB , Program Management and System Engineering Guidelines for Managing the Transition to Lead-free ElectronicsGEIA-HB , Technical Guidelines for Using Lead-free Solder in Aerospace Applications
29 Summary of Recommendations FactorImpact on Avionics SystemAvionics System Design ResponseDecreasing aerospace market share – Asian market growthIncreasing obsolescenceUse AQEC partsDisposable modular assembliesChanges in device definition and design methodsVariations in device parametersLoss of configuration controlPeriodically re-evaluate parts to confirm critical parameters are acceptableAnticipate parameter changes, e.g., speedStreamlined re-certification processesElimination of leadDecreased reliabilityRepairability issuesConfiguration control issuesUse LEAP WG documentsDetailed knowledge of materials in avionicsShort service lifeTradeoff temperature, power, speed, reliabilityNarrow temperature rangePut complex functions in environmentally-controlled regions of the aircraftSusceptibility to atmospheric radiationIncreased single event ratesError-correcting codePart redundancyMore testingUse IEC TS 62396Sub-100 nanometer feature sizesIncreased integration of functions in smaller sizesSystem-on-a-chip
30 SummaryThe challenges posed by the semiconductor device industry are not completely understood, even by those who are driving them.They are dynamic, and their rate of change is increasing.The semiconductor industry has limited motivation to consider the specific concerns of the aerospace industryAerospace industry responses must be provisional, and open to modification as more information becomes available, or as current information becomes obsolete.Many COTS-DMS-Obsolescence problems must be addressed at the system level.