2สวัสดีครับ Hello Modelling and Simulation of Tsunami Waves for Improved Defence Provision in PhuketสวัสดีครับHellofrom Phuket, ThailandRichard N. ZobelDepartment of Computer EngineeringFaculty of EngineeringPrince of Songkla University, Phuket Campus80 Vichit Songkram Road, KathuPhuket, Thailand 83210
3IntroductionThe author was working in Phuket from three days after the tsunami for the following two and a half months.He was able to observe the local effects at the beaches around Phuket, the largest island in the Andaman Sea, off the South West coast of Thailand, and took pictures and video.The situation at each beach is unique and relates to both local factors and the magnitude, phase and direction of the sea wave in relation to the local geography of both the sea bed and the beach area.Some beaches were badly damaged and others less so, some were badly damaged at the ends of the beaches. Others suffered because the land behind the beach was very flat, and some areas were buffered by the mangrove forest.
4IntroductionPhotographic and video evidence acquired at the time and later.Used in relation to research for key factors responsible for thedamage, loss of life and injury for this specific tsunami.Considers possible future tsunami with different characteristics.Uses simulation to predict the consequences for affected areas.Possible defences which minimise the effects of future tsunamiare discussed.Conclusions for those who may need to consider these defences.Emphasis is on how modelling and simulation can be used to studythe possible effects of future tsunami with respect to affordableprovision of defences at the sites likely to be affected.
5The Tsunami in Phuket, Thailand The events in Phuket on Sunday, 26 December:(Thailand is 7 hours ahead of England)07.59 An earthquake shook Phuket Island. It was also felt in the Capital, Bangkok; in the North West, at Chiang Mai; and in the South East, at Hat Yai.09.45 The Tsunami arrived on the West side ( Andaman Sea)09.55 The second wave arrived.Major damage occurred in only ten minutes in some places10.00 The waves reduced and gradually subsidedThailand: 5,303 Dead; 3,396 Missing; 8,457 Injured
6Map of South East AsiaHat YaiEarthquakestarted here*
7The Areas AffectedPhuket is an island off the South West coast of Thailand.It is about 50km North to South, and about 25 km wide.(about the size of the Isle of Wight or Singapore)The main tourist beaches are on the Andaman Sea (West) side of the Island.The mainland to the North of Phuket is called Phang NgaPhang Nga is very flat and damage here went as far as 2km inland.The mainland to the East of Phuket is called Krabi.This area was less affected as it was partly shielded by Phuket.
8The Provinces of South Thailand Gulf of ThailandAndaman SeaMalaysia
9Phuket Island Airport Nai Yang Beach Surin Beach Prince of Songkla University (PSU)Kamala BeachPhuket TownPatong Beach
12The Sea Has Gone Away!The CD of the Tsunami arriving at Patong Beach showssome very interesting and illuminating features:The sea has gone awayThe Tsunami is comingThe Tsunami approaches the beachThe angry seaChaotic flowsThe whirlpool
13What is Being Done The Smashed Buildings, Restaurants, Shops and Beach Facilities are now cleared up and the rubbish sorted forre-cycling, removed and stored.Re-building is underway, and many businesses and facilitiesare already open.However, there are not many tourists yet at Patong Beach,the main tourist beach.The pictures of the beaches were all taken by the author on Sunday 23 January, four weeks after the Tsunami
27Samos, September 2005 - Tsunami here 50 years ago!
28PLATE TECTONICSIn the situation concerning the recent major event, the Australian-Indian plate is moving towards the Eurasian plate and has been in collision with it for millions of years.More specifically, the Indian plate has been pressing against the Burma (Myanmar) micro plate.The pressure has built up over a long period of time, how long is not known ( years).It was eventually partially released on 26 December 2004 in a large movement, Richter scale 9.3, which saw the Indian Ocean floor move some 15m or more towards Indonesia.
30The 90 East RidgeThere is an ocean ridge, running in a North/South direction, roughly along the 90o East line of longitude, all the way from Australia to India, a distance of some 5000km.Associated with the zone where the Indian ocean sub-plate meets with the Burma continental micro-plate, there are several deep trenches, notably the Java Trench, depth around 7km, and the Sumatra Trench, depth around 6km.This is a very ancient structure and is the site where the Indian Ocean floor slides under the Burma Micro Plate.This type of plate collision is called a Subduction Zone
32Phuket, Phang Nga and Ranong Most of Phuket Island is hilly, so perhaps only a few percent of the area of this beautiful island was damaged.Sadly, Phang Nga, the mainland to the north of Phuket is much flatter, resulting in extensive damage and loss of life.A marine police launch was found beached, some 2 km inland. Many tourists were living in tents. They had little chance and nowhere safe to go.In some of the Sea Gypsy villages, the elders had a tribal memory which suggested that if the sea goes out a long way suddenly, it will quickly come back inland as far as it went out, so go up hill fast before it does. Those that did survived, although their villages did not.In Phuket, Phang Nga and Ranong, many villages lay behind mangrove forest and consequently suffered only minor damage. Others have had their mangrove forest replaced by fish and prawn farms, and were not protected.
33MODELLING AND SIMULATION It is very clear that the system for whichmodelling and simulation is to be attempted isextremely complex and highly non-linear.Further, verification and validation is almostimpossible, since any data is likely to besparse and incomplete.Predicting the occurrence and/or magnitude ofsuch events is also extremely difficult.
34Static Features Such is the advance in technology it is now possible to measure the precise position of the land and of thedepth of the sea from satellites.This enables sea depth and boundaries to be established.So, at least in principle, the problem is computableusing the appropriate three dimensional, time-varying, non-linear Navier-Stokes partial differential equations topredict the ensuing tsunami sea waves, if the origin orepicentre of the earthquake is known.
35Dynamic featuresFor the recent tsunami, it subsequently became clear that the totalinverted rupture duration was 200s and the peak slip was about 20m.The rupture propagated as a series of earthquakes from the originalepicentre towards the northwest for about 400km with a speed of2.0km/s, along the subduction line near to the 90 East Ridge.This substantially changed the nature of the tsunami, especially in itseffect on Phuket and the adjacent mainland areas of Phang Nga andKrabi.Following this development, part of the tsunami wave front became aNorth/South line travelling East towards Sri Lanka and West towardsPhuket. This is distinctly different from that emanating from a singlepoint epicentre.
36Modelling of Sea WavesThis subject is complex and concerns the general Navier-Stokes three dimensional (3-D) partial differential equations for viscous, compressible flow in relation to:Eulerian Conservation of MassEulerian Conservation of MomentumEulerian Conservation of Energy
37Modelling of Sea Waves Eulerian Conservation of Mass: t + U . = - .Uwhere: U is the particle velocity, and is the water density = x i + y j + z k; where i, j, k are unit vectorsandU . = Ux i + Uyj + Uz kConservation of mass is of fundamental importance to most systems.In this context the mass balance must include all mass arriving in agiven 3-D volume and all mass leaving that volume during acomputational time period, in addition to the mass already present inthat volume prior to that time period.
38Modelling of Sea Waves Eulerian Conservation of Momentum: t + U . U = - . + g = ijP – Sijwhere: P is the water pressure, g is the gravitational constant, and Sij are the total viscosity deviators (e.g. Sx = qx – q), where q is the viscosity).Conservation of momentum is a second fundamentalconsideration in that the systems sum of the products ofindividual mass elements and their velocity must remainconstant.
39Modelling of Sea Waves Eulerian Conservation of Energy: t + U . I = - : U+ 2 Twhere: : U =ji Ui/XjI is the internal energy is a real viscosity coefficient.Conservation of energy is a little more tricky.However, it must be remembered that energy is onlytransferred from one form to another and isconsequently not lost.
40Modelling of Sea WavesThis set of equations may be simplified by assuming the flow is incompressible ( = 0 )The equations may be further simplified by excluding viscosity.Viscosity terms may be included if the fluid is incompressible, with or without shearing forces.Further details and a full discussion of these equations may found in Numerical Modelling of Water Waves, 2nd Edition, 2004, by Mader .This is the definitive work
41Modelling of Sea WavesIn computational terms, each of these equation sets must be converted into finite difference equations before solutions may be computed digitally.In order to do this, assumptions must be made in relation to the most appropriate form for the representation of differential terms to achieve an acceptable accuracy of result.To represent such a large volume of water, it is necessary to carefully consider the spatial resolution, which needs to be adequate to represent the spatial frequencies, or wavelengths of the expected sea waves, but also needs to minimise the computational cost. This is always a difficult compromise.The temporal aspects must also be considered in terms of minimum acceptable sample rate in this respect.
42Modelling of Sea WavesIt is important to appreciate that for these systems, such as water wave systems, the consequences of having relatively low damping needs to be considered in relation to the convergence of the solutions, and of their divergence with time from an initial state.In relation to the shallow water simulations, these aspects also need to be carefully looked at, since in shallow water the wavelength becomes considerably shorter and the wave height considerably larger. In addition the volume under consideration becomes much smaller.
43Tsunami Wave Dynamic Features It is clear that a “simple” solution of the Navier- Stokes equation withan input of a point source earthquake and tsunami will not suffice.Further than this, the wave comes and goes with declining amplitudeand is modified by obstructions, plus reflection and refraction fromislands and the shoreline.If this is not enough, each surge results in progressive pile up and/orremoval of tens of metres of silts and sediments where tsunami movein shallow waters.This also causes concern for large ships bringing relief supplies inrespect of harbour access and movement through narrow busywaterways such as the Malacca Strait. Much surveying will benecessary to enable vessels to proceed safely.
44Dynamic features But there is more, it turns out that the sequence of earthquakes, mainly to the North of theoriginal earthquake involved a shift of the oceanfloor by perhaps 15m in a matter of minutes.The Indonesian Island of Sumatra and the IndianNicobar and Andaman Islands may have moved asmuch as 20m.The scale is staggering; the total force involvedwas estimated at around 600 Megatons of TNT.
45Possible Defences against Tsunami Tsunami arise from:Earthquakes (Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, etc), Landslides (Lytuya Bay), Cavity collapses, Asteroids (Cretaceous-Tertiary Chicxulub) and other related sudden major movements of land above or below sea or water surface level.Few can be foreseenPrediction is difficultNeed to employ effective warning systemsNeed to employ affordable defences to minimise death, injury and destruction
46Defence Possibilities In Krabi, villages which lay behind mangrove forests were far less affected than those where the forest had been removed to make way for fish farms or other commercial activitiesMinimisation of the scale of mangrove forest removal could minimise the damage caused by future tsunami.Alternatively, man-made structures might be created which in some way mimic nature in this respect.
47Defence Possibilities Mangrove forest Phang Nga Bay
48Defence Possibilities Other possibilities:Refuges to be constructed to provide escape to an upper story when stranded in a flat areaChanges to the shallow seas near the beaches by dredging, or of dumping sand or rocks.Modification of the built environment at the planning stages.Changes to vehicle parking policy and provision.
49Modelling and Simulation of Possible Tsunami in the Indian OceanSource of future tsunami which would affect western coasts of South Thailand, is most likely to be the subduction zone earthquakes associated with the fault line which includes the Sunda Trench, to the west coast of Sumatra, to the Andaman and Nicobar islands in the north. Other possibilities include cataclysmic explosion of volcanoes such as Krakatoa (between Sumatra and Java) and Tambora on the island of Sumbaya.Both single and multiple earthquakes (as for the recent events) need to be considered.Simulation of the effects of such earthquakes on possible tsunami generation is needed, but not easy to model.
50Modelling and Simulation of Possible Tsunami in the Indian OceanHydrological data is required to model the seafloor boundaries.However, the recent tsunami has caused changes to the sea floorThe possible effects of reflections from islands and undersea rock formations also need to be considered.Such studies will provide samples of input data for shallow water studies in the coastal areas.Full Navier-Stokes compressible water wave simulations needed for validation of simpler models used to reduce simulation costs for both deep and shallow water studies.
51Tsunami Modelling Problems Tsunami need to be simulated for the Indian Ocean and the Andaman SeaRequired as input to the shallow water simulation studies for the general and specific bays and beach areas of Phuket, Phang Nga and Krabi.Problems of change of scale and consequent spatial resolution, resolved perhaps by interpolation.However, there are also a number of potential problems in achieving a reasonably accurate representation of the resulting sea wave motion.
52Tsunami Modelling Problems Need to obtain recent or current data of the sea floor hydrological data, in relation to the type of deposits and exposed rock formations as seen in video footage of the sea receded to the horizon at Patong beach.Need to obtain estimates of the sand and other materials picked up by the first wave. This affects the local water density, and also the way in which such mixtures of solid and liquid matter behave.Debris from damage caused by the first wave will be deposited, changing the sea bed data, which requires changes to the model data for the second sea wave.Small islands, sand banks and bars have disappeared; new islands have appeared, and beaches modified.
53Tsunami Modelling Problems Small island between Phuket and Krabi after the tsunami
54Application of Simulation Results to Affordable Defences Simulation of possible tsunami scenarios at specific beaches requires interfaces with other simulations:Apply to a variety of building structures with a view to determining their susceptibility to such sea waves.Two storey restaurant as example.Propose new or modified building designs.Avoid basements in areas where flooding can occur.Reconsider the built environment.
55Application of Simulation Results to Affordable Defences Consider construction of multi-storey car parks to minimise the number of parked vehicles on the beach road.Use the same building as an escape for people to a higher level above the tsunami wave.Employ two or more storey buildings with ground floor supports designed to resist tsunami sea waves.Buildings with supporting columns are common in ThailandThey provide storage and vehicle parking underneath and reduce the risk of entry of snakes and other undesirable visitors to domestic apartments as may be seen in the next slide.
56Application of Simulation Results to Affordable Defences Accommodation building, PSU, Phuket Campus, Kathu district
57Application of Simulation Results to Affordable Defences Modelling and simulation might be used for other aspects:Design of the cross section of the pillar supports needs to be optimised to provide minimum resistance to sea waves, in order to maximise the possibility that upper storeys survive a tsunami attack.After the tsunami waves had initially receded, the sea took on a violent chaotic appearance and that this was replaced by a large whirlpool. Perhaps these damaging activities could have been ameliorated by modifying the sea floor close to the beach by dredging or by dumping sand or rock to damp out this motion.The possibilities of creating moles out to sea to reduce access of large sea waves to the beach areas, as can be seen at Schevningen, in the Netherlands and at other places, should be considered.
58ConclusionsA tsunami warning system to enable coastal areas of the Indian Ocean likely to be affected is under construction.The flat, low lying areas of Khao Lak in Phang Nga, Thailand and Aceh, in Sumatra, Indonesia provide little in the way of possible escape to a higher level above the invading sea.This paper considers the possibilities of the use of computer modelling and simulation of sea waves to determine the feasibility of making economic defence provision for affected areas in Thailand, which may also be relevant in other countries.
59ConclusionsThe paper outlines the stages of the work required, and highlights some of the likely major technical difficulties in carrying out such a novel study.Perhaps the most important of these difficulties lies in the problems of interfacing the deep sea model to the shallow sea model and in turn to the models required to determine the effects of the tsunami on building structures and the built environment.The problems of determining the details and modelling of the effects of sand and debris following the arrival of the first tsunami wave are seen to be formidable.Finally, possible economic solutions are proposed in relation to more robust and safer building practices for the affected areas and to the contribution of purpose-built or dual purpose refuge buildings for escape from such damaging sea waves.
60Come to Phuket, Come to Beautiful Thailand, We are Open for Business! EPILOGCome to Phuket, Come to Beautiful Thailand, We are Open for Business!