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D.A.R.E Dating. Academic. Research. Enterprise. Social Myth Busters Presentation 1 Based on CU-STAT2507.

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Presentation on theme: "D.A.R.E Dating. Academic. Research. Enterprise. Social Myth Busters Presentation 1 Based on CU-STAT2507."— Presentation transcript:

1 D.A.R.E Dating. Academic. Research. Enterprise. Social Myth Busters Presentation 1 Based on CU-STAT2507

2 Chapter 1: Describing Data With Graphs Histograms reveal that the relationship status of women and men in terms of lengths in months is heavily skewed to the right. We see most people as single, while only about a half of all people are well-seasoned in relationships. Take Away: Men should not be afraid to approach women because there is such a high chance she is single (see the peak of the bars where relationship length=0).

3 Chapter 2: Describing Data With Numerical Measures If a man approaches a woman at random, and she is in a relationship, it is not unusual for her to have been in her relationship for up to 4 3/4 years, or for up to about 4 1/2 years or even 6 years depending on which of our studies you are looking at. In contrast for a man, a relationship lasting longer than 1 year and 7 months is already unusual... Women Study 1: Relationship length outliers after ~ 4½ years Women Study 2: Outliers after 6 years Women Study 3: Outliers after 4 ¾ years Men Study 1: Relationship outliers after 1 year and 7 mths Men Study 1: (n=163) Men Study 1: Classmates of Women Studies 1-3

4 Chapter 2: Describing Data with Numerical Measures Take-Away: The female University students in our studies may not be dating their male classmates in our studies. We suspect this since it is not likely that the women in our studies identify as matched to their boyfriends, while meanwhile their boyfriends identify as single. Although this would be a plausible hypothesis in studying short-term relationships, let us remember that the relationship lengths of women in our studies go up to 4 to 5 to 6 years long. These serious relationships are no longer ambiguous, to allow for one partner to claim a girlfriend/boyfriend in the other while their partner would not. Take-Away: (What if the women are counting their relationship lengths back farther than their boyfriends?).

5 Chapter 4: Probability and Probability Distributions Take-Away: With such a high chance for women to be single, it will make it easier to counsel timid men to approach women. The chances a woman you approach is single is 48% The chances a man you approach is single is 71% The chances anyone you approach is single in total is 60% P(S|M)=0.7134, n=162 P(S|F)=0.4848, n=361 P(S)=0.5991, via the Law of Total Probability S=Single, M=Male, F=Female

6 Chapter 5: Several Useful Discrete Distributions Because there is a 48% chance of one woman being single… if a man approaches 5 women at a time, there is a 96% chance that at least one of them will be single, meeting other important assumptions. Take-Away: The numbers do not support a rationale for approach anxiety on the fear that a woman is already involved with someone else.

7 Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions Histograms of sample mean distributions for relationship length (RS) are approximately normal, despite that the raw distributions are skewed to the right (see slide 2). Sample-mean distribution histograms were made with random samples of size 35 with 5, then 35, then 135 samples. Take-Away: We suspect that on average men are reporting shorter relationship length times than women, but a formal statistical test is warranted. A related idea is that a small proportion of men are in multiple relationships with women, each who consider the same men their boyfriends. My favorite idea is that the young female university students are outsourcing their relationships to older more established men outside of the institution, leaving their male classmates without partners. For men the peak was only RS~5.81 months for an estimate of the relationship length population mean for men. Regarding the peak values of the relationship length sample mean distributions for 135 samples, for women the peak was at RS~14.5 months – a great estimate of the population mean of relationship length for women.

8 Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions MenWomen

9 Chapter 8: Large Sample Estimation We are 95% confident that the true proportion of men who are single, is anywhere from 14.23% to 31.50% more than the true proportion of women who are single.

10 Chapter 9: Large Sample Tests of Hypothesis At alpha=0.10 we can reject the null hypothesis that men and women's true means in relationship length are the same. This is from a two-tailed test, where the p-value was actually 0.0281 before I doubled it. We can be 90% confident that women in the appropriate population (e.g. in undergraduate Canadian university) are anywhere from 1.5174 months to 20.2626 months longer in relationships, on average, then men are.

11 The Study: Validation of the Secret Society of PUAs ~ Free Newsletter "The Study" @ Free Interactive Forum @ ~ Free Audio clips @ ~ Full Best Natural Game In-Field Training Curriculum 2009© DDD

12 Side Projects

13 Chapter 10: Inference from Small Samples I asked 27 males in the community of pick-up artists (men seeking dating and maturity advice) their birth order. Depending on their answer I gave them each a coding for their leadership factor due to birth order (LFBO). I reasoned that a 4 th or later born male would have the lowest leadership factor due to birth order (0), a 3 rd born would have the second lowest leadership factor (1), a 2 nd born the third lowest (2), etc... Because an only child is independent of older siblings, but yet has no younger siblings to lead he is only given a 3(3). A first born child with younger siblings is given the highest LFBO (4). In a t-test at alpha=0.1 we reject the null hypothesis that there as many or more first born males as later born males involved in the so-called pick-up-artist community. We conclude that the true population average of the leadership factor due to birth order is less than 3, given the assumption that the LFBO in the pop. is normally distributed. Take-Away: Therefore we have evidence that on average those males seeking dating and maturity advice on the internet chat rooms are 2nd born or later born males, as opposed to single children and 1 st born males.

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