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The Death of Distance Frances Cairncross Exeter College, Oxford Tel Aviv, August 31 st 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "The Death of Distance Frances Cairncross Exeter College, Oxford Tel Aviv, August 31 st 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Death of Distance Frances Cairncross Exeter College, Oxford Tel Aviv, August 31 st 2005

2 This presentation looks at... The changing world environment The impact of a new technology

3 Prediction can be difficult... Television will never be a serious competitor for radio because people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; the average American family hasnt time for it. The New York Times, reporting the 1939 Worlds Fair

4 …but not impossible Asked in 1898 what he thought would be the decisive factor in modern history, Otto von Bismarck replied: The fact that North Americans speak English.

5 The changing world - A new balance of power

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9 The changing world - A new balance of power A new balance of demography

10 Four views of the future: World population projections Source: UN

11 Globally, more old, fewer young

12 Israel 2000 – and 2050 A tale of two pyramids Source: US Census Bureau

13 The changing world - A new balance of power A new balance of demography More competition for natural resources

14 Oil pressure

15 By 2030… -Developing countries will account for almost 2/3rds of the increase in global oil consumption -China, which became a net oil importer in 1993, will import 74% of its oil -OECDs share of global oil demand will decline from 59% in 2002 to 47%

16 The coming scramble for oil: Global oil-import dependency Source: OECD

17 Water pressure

18 The changing world - A new balance of power A new balance of demography More competition for natural resources New technologies

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20 Death of distance

21 Three great transport revolutions: Goods in the 19 th century People in the 20 th century Ideas in the 21 st century

22 Communications technology: –Increases access to information –Forces global thinking –Makes networks matter –Creates new products –Makes markets work better

23 - bringing changes in…. -our working lives -our social lives -our economic lives -our political lives

24 New working patterns: –The office as factory

25 New working patterns: –The office as factory –The office as club –The home as production unit

26 …and also –New kinds of job (did your university train web designers?) –More part-time, more all-the-time –Top talent – or no talent

27 The mini-multinational

28 New social lives: –The power of Googling (internet dating the biggest subscription sites online) –The constant conversation –Ratings, advice, gossip: a global garden fence

29 New social lives: –The power of Googling (internet dating the biggest subscription sites online) –The constant conversation –Ratings, advice, gossip: a global garden fence –Bye-bye privacy

30 New economy, new world for companies An end to inflation A new deal for consumers A new managerial revolution

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33 The consumers invention

34 The Company of the Future: Technology shapes companies: -Most people expected too much too soon -The big changes are within companies - -and between companies

35 The second managerial revolution

36 The changing world for business: New ways to reach consumers – especially corporate consumers New ways to purchase New business opportunities New competitors

37 The worlds factory

38 The worlds office IT and BPO employment in India *ForecastSource: NASSCOM

39 A new political order The power of the diaspora The competition for citizens A new role for government

40 Is Distance really Dead? -Inexpensive communications bring enormous changes and opportunities. But…

41 Location still matters - -when goods/ inventory are needed quickly -when high-quality human capital is essential -when uncodifiable knowledge requires people to meet -when deals are done

42 What implications for Israel? -superb at reducing the drawbacks of distance -high-quality human capital -relatively young population -widespread use of English -clever use of diaspora


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