Presentation on theme: "The new local paradigm (about developing knowledge and consciousness locally – with an outlook on the tasks of European states) Csaba Varga researcher."— Presentation transcript:
The new local paradigm (about developing knowledge and consciousness locally – with an outlook on the tasks of European states) Csaba Varga researcher of social theory, metaphilosopher, h. academic reader President of Institute for Strategic Research
Introduction The Hungarian and Central-European breakages, pains and growing hunger for future inspire me. (strong inner and outer motivations) Instead of helplessness, lack of ideas and affected saunter in the present – I choose to understand the new world, and to declare a new program I am sociologist by qualification, a philosopher by inner makeup, i have been leading a Hungarian R+D institute for one and a half decade. We have developed an overall transdisciplinary theory (metaphilosophy), and simultaneously have been initiating and leading local developmental model experiments.
What kind of changes are there? new table – a new concept of matter new Milky Way – a new view of Cosmos new God – new view of god new Mrs Smith – new view of man new degree – new view of knowledge new factory – a new view of economy new job – new view of labor new state – a new view of state new village – a new view of society new realization – new view of consciousness new horizon – a new vision of the future
Hungarian development models The Institute for Strategic Research that i represent has made complex, innovative, knowledge society age strategies: four regional, nine county area and nearly twenty for small regions. Between 1999 and the end of 2005 A pilot project: Aba village (4500 occupants) and the small region of Sárvíz (11 townships) Projects (mayors hunger strike, digital city and small region strategy, Door to the south project, secondary education of arts, intelligent residental area, local social contract and civil magistrate, etc.)
Contents Contents Commencing theorems Three theoretical theorems The Hungarian future vision New local paradigm Knowledge- and/or consciousness developing society Local development models If we have the courage… Message Hungarian future vision, a postscript
Future - is it a secret? We are not any more restricted to interpret the future (only) on the grounds of normal science. There is not only one future, but more (parallel) futures, as there are more present today Future is a network of alternatives, not necessarily of those scenarios we know today. Future is going on not merely on the rigid tracks of past and present, but it is a creation of our consciousness at least 50%.
Future - is it a secret? Future - is it a secret?(2) The future is (possibly) determined, but free will was counted in as well. Future can not be seen through colonialist view any more, it can only be post colonialist The future we see today is differs in much more than anytime before. Limit to the future is – more than the external conditions – our limited knowledge Future depends on, which future visions individuals and communities dream or do not dream.
New planning technology (2005) In a European state the complex society and knowledge structure makes it impossible to have only one future vision Without global and local future visions planning is impossible For the time being nor political elite, nor knowledge elite, nor civil elites are not really capable to plan due to lack of worked out future visions Having done inter-disciplinary and vision providing research and strategy analysis are essential when planning for the future.
The social conflicts of today The ecology poor - ecology rich (integrated ecological assets distribution) Affluent poor - affluent rich ( differences in integrated social capital) Power-poor – power rich (integrated power capital distribution) Media-poor - media-rich (differences in integrated media-assets, prestige- capital)
New social gaps at the beginning- in the middle of the XXI Century 1. Technology poor – technology rich 2. Information poor – information rich 3. Knowledge poor – Knowledge rich (culture poor - culture rich) 4. Consciousness poor - consciousness-rich 5. God experience poor – God experience rich
Three theoretical theorem New knowledge and new theory of knowledge New future and new future vision New global and local world Three theoretical theorem New knowledge and new theory of knowledge New future and new future vision New global and local world
New knowledge and new theory of knowledge New knowledge and new theory of knowledge
New assumptions The new knowledge is radically different from what was in the last 300-400 years. Science develops from normal science to post science. Science, religion and art will be one again Functions of knowledge have widened substantially (becomes personal and social assets) The information/knowledge can be exchanged to money/power/prestige and vice versa New knowledge about the future and the paths leading to them
Dilemmas around knowledge When the new knowledge and thinking reaches the people of the street, will the world be a better place from it? If professional and non professional knowledge provider will have equal opportunity, will the institution of the state- university institution of knowledge break up? If all knowledge becomes available digitally (through media), how knowledge processing and interpreting will be possible? If four hour work of 20-30% of the total working age population will be sufficient, will people be ready to use the excess time, energy for gaining knowledge?
Quantum research findings The observer and the observed are not separable from each other Matter shows both wave and particle behavior Likely events of Quantum processes: probability waves (state vectors) or probability networks (EWG-model) Super space theory (we live in different, parallel worlds) - John A. Wheeler-theory Actions and effects at a distance Our choice: many universes or one one universe with sort of a designer (God)? Theory of nonlocal hidden variables, even the implicate order (Bohm-theory)
New phenomena on the knowledge market We are flooded with products of scientific knowledge and popular culture to an extent never seen before Personal home pages – may convey anything to anybody Family and small community self-expression becomes possible Instead of the real world a anti world can be produced by means of the Internet as media Language barriers are disappearing with translation software developments The individual independently from the state and economical help can enter the global society and culture
Dominant types of capital Farmer society Handcraft society Industrial society State capitalism (socialism) Money capitalism Postindustrial society Information society Knowledge society Consciousness society Universal capital Creative capital (+material capital) Material capital Power capital (connection capital) Money capital Applied intellectual capital Information capital (+ money capital) Knowledge capital Consciousness capital
Information and knowledge society Information society: society of transmitting signs with man made tools, a potential knowledge-society; (starting hypotheses of the theory about present) only information becomes personal-collective capital Knowledge society: society of interpreted knowledge systems, potential knowledge symbol society that with knowledge and - partly – with knowledge symbol reconstructs society (starting hypotheses of the theory about near-future); knowledge becomes personal and social capital
Knowledge age arriving Before Knowledge centered world model -In the midst of Global Information Society -Before consciousness-society The quantitative and most of all qualitative advancement of knowledge – New Science /New Theory is born Within thirty-fifty years universal knowledge and knowledge utilization of new grade is to expect Knowledge becomes personal asset - The individual understands and applies New Knowledge Knowledge becomes society asset -Knowledge society is born
New future and new future vision New global and local world New future and new future vision New global and local world
New assumptions The universal-global world is of glob-local nature, however also culture plays a determining role The universal-global future vision faces both dangers and opportunities we never thought of The universal-global processes have effects on the future chances of a small European country to an extent never expected Whatever the future will be like in the next 25 years, it will be fundamentally different reality than the province present The future of any country can only be interpreted inside a complex global view of the future.
Dilemmas – around the future Supposed we knew (roughly) what future brings, and what kind of future we want (till 2020), how and to what degree do the European countries development plans corresponds to it? If we have no idea of our future whatsoever, nor do we know what we want as a future, what will we build our overall national development conceptions on being aware of the lack of future visions If we do know but little about the future, if there is not enough time for thorough preparations, if even the present conceptional complexity is too much for political elite; what can we do?
The economy of today In developed parts of Europe Industrial Age is not an alternative any more, but still not a global failure. The knowledge age and its economy is an alternative, however, it is not a global practice, not even in Europe. The knowledge based economy basically could be a society-centered economy (economy returns to society?) Achievement should not be measured in (or only in) GDP, but in its individual, collective and intellectual usefulness
The New World until 2020 (1) Human knowledge get six times more in quantity – what does it bring? Post-normal science (New View of Reality, New View of Consciousness, New View of Man) come into being, but will it be utilized? At least three-four subsequent rapid technology revolution is to come – changes are unpredictable The global and Continental societies handle universal ecological and social crises only partially Artificial intelligence can play an exceptional role in digital state, consciousness development, scientific research etc.
The New World until 2020 (2) We neither expect the inner disintegration of Europe nor Europe winning the competition of continents In European Union is neocapitalism to linger or possibly the first step of knowledge- and consciousness society really will be reached. For successfully accomplishing daily tasks university degree and a new creative behavior is needed. The dwellers of our planet possibly reach the new consciousness states. Man or an intelligent robot is going to arrive at Mars and further… The European man rediscovers its transcendency
The new cyber space alternatives (1) New, interactive, global e-government, e- state to steer human society (2) Global civil society collective administration and self arrangement (3) With help of new info communication networks and services creating collective intelligence (4) Corresponding to the empowerment theory world citizens participate in the communication dynamically and supervise the media and the state (5) As self organizing becomes widespread local participants create a new civil society network that is both global and national local. The UNESCO programme advancing: different combinations of the five alternatives may evolve.
New global and local world the new world model New global and local world the new world model
New assumptions Old industrial (fordist, further postfordist) world model and its way of thinking (normal- science) has come to an end One of the new (information society) world model is not sufficient alone – it is a post- information age Sustainable development world model alone – so it seems - is not sustainable Is Europe desperately experimenting to integrate and revive the existing models? (See: i2010 strategy) However modernization models are undergoing a paradigm shift, and post- modernization models have arrived.
Continental dilemmas Assuming that in the years of 10s the knowledge-centered world model gets dominant, is it acceptable that a European Country in its strategy plan focuses not on knowledge production and knowledge use? If the European Union neither by 2010 nor by 2015 will not be or only partly will be sustainable and innovative knowledge centered continent, then how will Hungary or another European country react to this overwhelming delay? If in the 10s another new dominant world model is to expect, how can that be explored and how can we be prepared?
New globalization The new concept of the new globalization Globalization and localization simultaneously (glocalization) Globalization functionality substantiality substantiality (standardization) (standardization) Quantitative and qualitative globalization First half of the 21. century: a glob- local world
The nation in the information age New intermediary role between the global and local world The method is not ruling, but not absolute self surrender Nation is an issue as a knowledge space and not as a state To preserve a nation is possible not as a state, but as a knowledge/culture- nation The key requirement for a nation to survive is the digitalizing all national value/knowledge/science.
Dominant driving forces Farmer society Handcraft society Industrial society State capitalism (socialism) Money capitalism Postindustrial society Information society Knowledge society Consciousness society Nature and God Material and beauty Money and innovation Material and power Money prestige Technology and creativity Information and technology and technologyKnowledge Consciousness state
Models of modernization Traditional models of modernizations Resource-controlledInvestment-controlledInnovation-centeredInformation-basedetc. Post-modernization models (knowledge age? Quantum age?) knowledge-centered New model of democracy Consciousness-controlled Artificial intelligence controlled Integrated new models etc.
Modernization crisis expected date: 2008-2009 At the end of the Prodi-Barroso era it is likely to become clear: Europe is still behind The main cause of trouble is not the personality or preparedness of politicians The cause of failure: the normal science rational-positivist view of present/future does not offer fit grounds for making up leeway. Additional symptom of the crises: the alternative movements majority has no better solution either
New assumptions Local apathy and powerlessness is not to linger for decades in Europe In the universal-global competition Europe with its plus in knowledge and culture has good chances One tool to find ourselves ( to fall into line as well) is to reorganize and re-think the European localities. The time of local model experiments has arrived The two evident source of local developments is: municipality and local civil society However both must be filled with knowledge and new consciousness – preferably with own will
Dilemmas around locality Are the majority of localities able to cut themselves adrift from global field? Is local autonomy basically depends on financial development sources or/and used knowledge? Or neither of the two, but another third one is determining local innovation and creativity? Is the government or/and municipality the key factor to strengthening localities? Or neither of the two, but the civil society and the capable knowledge citizen?
New localization theories The concept of localization – subordinating locality Localization scenes: region, county, small region, places (town and village) The global world basic unit and counter balance (autonomy- paradigm) The first stage of new society Virtual locality – quality locality? Localization and new communities, new congregations
Locality structure Upper world of life (region, county) Lower world of life Surrounding world (small region, places) Surrounding world (small region, places) World at hand (family, individual) World at hand (family, individual) Interiorized world of life (a persons Superego) Globalization effects – the reactions of localization The information and knowledge access role in place conformation
Knowledge- and/or consciousness developing society Knowledge- and/or consciousness developing society
Suppositions Until 2020 the only optimal future choice is the new (knowledge- and also partly consciousness-development centered) alternative Knowledge development incentive should be first priority already today. (The R+D in wider sense) Hungary and every European country remains a compound alternative country within the next ten years – there is no one good solution The planning and grounding of state institutions for consciousness research and development should begin (preparations)
Dilemmas – time If the goals of information society are too far reaching and too complicated for many yet, is it premature for the dominant political elite ? Whether the current European state strategies priorities (investment in humans, economy, environment), the programs of the nineties, may become obsolote? If Europe and all its states are preparing not to the alternatives of the 10s; Hungary, for instance, will be stagnating or stay more behind?
Consciousness developing society model To accept and apply personal and community knowledge is the matter of state of mind and consciousness development The social cohesion, social cooperation is a question of the quality of consciousness as well Strengthening of European, national and local identity depends first of all on individual mind and consciousness Personal and community health is determined basically by purposeful developing of consciousness/self consciousness Therefore we need a society (and society communication) model that promotes development/self development of consciousness
Knowledge regions, intelligent regions Regional realization of information or knowledge society programmes, the knowledge based economy and society ordered, concentrated establishment in given counties, or regions, in other words, the intensive creation of intelligent life conditions, e-commerce getting dominant, changeover to digital public administration and the value preserver and value producer content providing becoming common.
Intelligent small region If an information society region is an intelligent bridge, than the intelligent small region is a creative center of activity It is the life world changing and locality affirmative combination of global compulsory and local unique factors The birth pace of the intelligent life world An ongoing (knowledge based) re- organization of local society, that is, the local road to knowledge society
What constitutes an intelligent region? 1.The realization of individual and community access (broadband, fast) fully 2.The continuous adaptation of technology revolution achievements. 3. Knowledge based economy, the knowledge market maturation and the R+D coming to the front 4. Giving priority to the digital content industry and its development – the knew knowledge universalization 5. Realization of the local knowledge centered civil society and cohesion 6. The successful handling of social and information inequalities
What constitutes an intelligent region? 7. Virtual self-government in regions and in places 8. The transformation of lower and intermediate levels of public administration, e-government 9. Local e-democracy, e-plebiscite 10. The regional university knowledge centers gaining strength and lifelong learning becomes a reality 11. The growth of regional creation and application of new knowledge
What constitutes an intelligent region? 12. Preserving local culture and its presentation on global level 13. The regional political-economical elite personal preparation to the new era 14. The knowledge citizen lifestyle and life quality being common 15. A regions/places successful coming into line and taking part in the continental space competition 16. T he churches, civil organizations and their services are changing i n knowledge society
Hungarian local examples Szentlőrinc small region (one town and 19 village), disadvantageous situation, there is no advanced industry, etc. New elements: 1. New methodology, 2. Programmes for IT, information and information society, 3. Nine public services, 4. Institute developments, 5. Decision makers training, 6. Lobby-day, etc. The Garden of Eden in Zselic (22 000 hectare of nature conservation area. New projects: 1. Future city as a greenfield investment, 2. A tourist theme park as well, 3. Sacraltownvillage-structure, 4. 12 healing- centre for body, soul and mind (etc.) in the future city,5. E-tourism center, etc.
Sample developments of new types? Introducing technologies that replace humans substitutes humans (for instance bioinformatics) Making common the use of technologies understanding and applying the energies of universes Personal/collective (and self developing) consciousness becomes the most important drive of economical-social development Digital government/self-government with the high level application of artificial intelligence ( Individual and community) Developments taking advantage of spiritual resources
If we have the courage… If we have the courage…
We could realize again Money is not the solution Power is utterly incapable Politics is no more in control of the processes Nature should not be damaged more The state does not solve the problems We may leave the Zeitgeist behind as well The individual is not defenseless Poverty is not a threat Man can understand much-much more Social cooperation is possible God loves man THE WORLD IS OURS
Message (but do not take my word for it) Message (but do not take my word for it)
Developments of the Quantum-era After the run-down of the modernization models of today a quick leap to quantum (post- modernization, post-information) stage may come After all, In Europe a general development model shift may begin and a new thinking trolls may develop If it does not happen for any reason or late; the technical-technological shifts alone may have shocking effects The development-research subvention could be at least six to eight -instead of three- % of national income The local regions – joined with the intelligent civil society – can revolutionize the global world
Thank you for your attention! Varga Csaba www.vargacsaba.hu www.strategiakutato.hu www.inco.hu www.evilagonline.hu www.metatheory.info
The Hungarian future vision (postscript) The Hungarian future vision (postscript)
Suppositions The nature of globalization-localization is not well known (but prejudiced) in our country, for this reason it is mostly opposed, and partly because of it we have no vision of the future of global world either The future vision of Hungary (and/or the Hungarian nation) is not worked out, as so many times in the last 150 years; Future is more a case of anxiety, bereft of hope, than of positive suspense In Hungarian region unique autonomic future visions are not born, at the same time in some smaller region they have an astoundingly long view and act with perspective
Dilemmas If presently there is no overall Ha Hungarian (Hungarian related) future vision and national strategy, keeping this lack in mind, the new national development plan necessarily is coming into life in vacuum without national consensus? If the political parties are capable of agreement only in slogans and in a semi manner, next to the political show-deals what further (and more substantive) conceptional and project-producing steps are possible in the small amount of time left?
Possible scenarios (mostly based on normal-science yet) Universal scenarios (at least four basic versions) Global scenarios (at least three – in 23 different version) National scenarios (ten alternatives and five scenarios) Local scenarios at home (five alternative – several scenarios)
Alternatives from Hungary (made in 1998-2000) Black (world end) alternative Dark grey (breakdown) alternative Light grey (seesaw) alternative Blue (knowledge society) alternative White (unity creating, of new consciousness) alternative According to normal-sciences view of present and future ----------------- Based on the new paradigms of post-normal science
What are the choices of Hungary? Wily-nilly accepts the present future vision of the European Union and adjust its new national development plan accordingly Remains in the European fold and only builds in hided new ( and different) alteration possibilities only. (like at operational level) Also prepares for not having other possibility then a paradigm shift at the end of the Barroso- era (2009-2010?) Consciously and openly includes the projects meeting the demands of the 10s and 20s in the national development plan of the new (dating from 2007) period.