Presentation on theme: "Global Urban Population at Risk? Volcanic Eruption Phenomena and Hazards Understanding Volcanic HazardsVideo produced by the International Association."— Presentation transcript:
Global Urban Population at Risk?
Volcanic Eruption Phenomena and Hazards Understanding Volcanic HazardsVideo produced by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earths Interior Ash fall Pyroclastic (ash) flows Lava Flows Lahars (volcanic mudflows) Earthquakes Tsunamis Volcanic Gases
Manila, Philippines Population, metro area 10 million Two caldera complexes, many smaller volcanoes Last large-scale eruptionTaal, 5380 years ago Last smaller eruption Taal, 1977 AD PhiVolcs
Manila, Philippines Potential risks from: Ash fall Pyroclastic (ash) flows Gases Lava flows (low probability) Response and Planning Mapping of deposits from past eruptions Geophysical monitoring Emergency response plans (near Taal, but not Manila) Education (near Taal), including the public and students
Auckland, New Zealand Population ~1 million Located in a 360 km 2 volcanic field; scoria cones and tuff rings 49 volcanoes erupted during the last 140,000 years Last eruption about 1000 years ago Kermode, 1992
Auckland, New Zealand Potential risks from: Ash fall; ballistic ejecta Pyroclastic surges Gases Lava flows Potential hazards of pyroclastic flows from distant calderas Response and Planning Mapping of deposits from past eruptions Geophysical monitoring Emergency response plans; evacuation and infrastructure protection Education including the public and students
Quito, Ecuador Population1.1 million Located below Guagua Pichincha, a large composite cone (stratovolcano) 12 eruption periods since 1533 AD. Erupting now (since October, 1999) M. Hall El Comercio
Quito, Ecuador Potential risks from: Ash fall; ballistic ejecta Pyroclastic flows Mudflows (lahars) Gases Response and Planning Mapping of deposits from past eruptions Geophysical monitoring Emergency response plans; evacuation, cleanup Education including the public and students Especially good reporting on eruptions in the newspapers
Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA Population, metro Seattle and Tacoma3.4 million Mount Rainier, large composite cone (strato- volcano) east of the cities Over the last several thousand years, lahars (mudflows) have reached the lowlands every 500-1000 years Minimal risk from Mt. Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes (northeast of Seattle) USGS, 1997
Seattle/Tacoma, Washington, USA Potential risks from: Lahars (mudflows) along valleys radiating from Mt. Rainier Minimal risk from ash fall; fallout usually to the east Response and Planning Mapping and dating of deposits from past eruptions Geophysical monitoring, especially seismic detection of collapse and flow monitors along valleys Emergency response plans for communities along valleys; warning systems Educationstudents and public
Napoli, Italy Orsi et al., 1998 US Army, 1944
Napoli, Italy Population, metro area ~3 million Vesuvius; frequent historic eruptions; last eruption 1944 AD Phlegrean Fields; two calderas (last large eruption 12,000 years ago); multiple smaller scoria cones and tuff rings (last eruption-1538 AD); restless calderas Il Mattino, 1906
Napoli, Italy Potential risks from: Earthquakes, uplift and subsidence Ash fall and pumice fall Pyroclastic surges and flows Lava Flows Gases Panic Response and Planning Mapping and dating of deposits from past eruptions; tectonic framework Geophysical monitoring Seismic, GPS, Gases, Tilt, Temperature variation, etc. Emergency response plans with Civil Defense, City, Province Educationstudents and public; museums; publications; public lectures and TV presentations
Potential Problems Common to All Volcano Cities
The Goal for all Volcano Cities during the 21st Century
IDNDRIAVCEI Decade Volcano Projects-"Reducing Volcanic Disasters LeaderChris Newhall Decade Volcanoes Near Cities: Colima, Mexico (Colima) Merapi, Indonesia (Yogyakarta) Mount Rainier, USA (Seattle-Tacoma) Santa Maria, Guatemala (Quezaltenango) Taal, Philippines (Manila, Batangas) Sakurajima, Japan (Kagoshima City) Vesuvius, Italy (Napoli) Galeras, Colombia (Pasto) Teide, Spain (Santa Cruz de Tenerife) Avachinsky-Koriaksky, Russia (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
Disciplines Represented at Cities on Volcanoes Workshops Volcanology Geographic Information Systems Public Health Remote Sensing Risk Analysis Civil Engineering Hydrology Sociology & Psychology Civil Defense City Management City Planning Education The Media (Science Reporters) City Officials Insurance Industry Infrastructure management Cities on Volcanoes-Roma/Napoli, Auckland, and Hilo
What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in the next century? Follow the examples for integrated programs of observation, planning and education established in several of the worlds volcano cities. Use the potential for Geographic- Information System-based integrated analysis, with heavy use of visualization to present results. Continue to raise the level of awareness of volcanic risk. Use all available modern educational tools, including the internet. Integrate disaster awareness into the culture (e.g., a national disaster day). Annual training of civil defense officials with virtual reality scenarios that require real- time responses.
What should be done to reduce urban volcanic risk in the next century? (continued) Earth scientists working for the cities, with integrated teams, which include environmental scientists, engineers, planners, and social scientists to prepare science- and culture-based emergency response plans. Frequent workshops and meetings like Cities on Volcanoes. Provide the scientific basis for cost-benefit analyses of the value of mitigation and disaster education to decision- makers. Get the politicians and business people involved.
Who pays for urban disaster mitigation in the volcano cities ? Traditional support l The Nation l The State l National and international disaster relief organizations and NGOs (always comes after an eruption; very little goes toward mitigation) l The insurance industry (again, after the eruption) Non-traditional support l The insurance industry (great interest in mitigation and threat reduction) l The utilities (infrastructure)mitigation, hardening facilities
Volcanoes, integrated science, and cities in the 21st centurySuggestions for Professional Geoscience Associations GeoRisk program for the International Unions of Geodesy and Geophysics and Geological Sciences 2000-2010the proposed Decade of Geosciences in the Cities with each nation picking a decade city for integrated scientific study Urban geoscience curricula need to be encouraged at universities Communicate the importance of geosciences to mayors, city planners and engineers We (geoscientists) need to come out of the woods and into the cities