Presentation on theme: "Met brief for Mon Mar 03 02 Mar 2014 Rennie Selkirk with Lynn Harvey and Lenny Pfister CURRENT SITUATION (8 AM Sun): TS Faxai: near 9N 150E; slightly better."— Presentation transcript:
Met brief for Mon Mar Mar 2014 Rennie Selkirk with Lynn Harvey and Lenny Pfister CURRENT SITUATION (8 AM Sun): TS Faxai: near 9N 150E; slightly better organized; slow moving to N Airfield – past 12 hours: NE winds to 21; G29; min CIG 014, short periods with no CIG FLIGHT OUTLOOK: Not good: issues of both ceiling and crosswind Only slightly better outlook if TS stays in place Worth a look again later today (1 PM) to see how storm is both deepening and moving Confidence in models is still low, though improving windcloud cover (base)precip Takeoff 1:45 AM ~16 UT NE20G29 BKN015 BKN025 VCSH midflight 10 AM – 3 PM UA zone may be impacted by deep convection in storm rainbands particularly at beginning of flight Landing 6 PM ~08 UT N20G28 (18XW) Best 10XW if TS stays put - At best, short periods of no CIG - Marginal improvement if TS tracks farther east than expected VCSH Slight chance of TS
JTWC Storm Track 7 AM Sunday Closest approach 257 nm at 4 PM Monday
Current IR: 2232 UT 01 Mar TS Faixa slowly moving slightly W of N
GFS surface fcsts takeoff / landing Mon 4 AMMon 10 PM UA zone may be impacted by deep convection in storm rainbands N.B.: not correct flight track
NAVGEM surface fcsts takeoff / landing Mon 4 AMMon 10 PM UA zone may be impacted by deep convection in storm rainbands particularly at beginning of flight N.B.: not correct flight track
Sounding: observed, forecast Some uncertainty in convective instability and depth of wet layer in fcst sounding Sat PM obs 7 PM Mon WRF 15-km model
Icing probably not a factor GFS 500 RH at 10 PM tomorrow (worst case scenario)
Last 3 JTWC forecasts agree, but because of weak steering winds as of 0Z, mar 2, confidence in track is still low.
GFS forecast Guam winds (assumes TC moves with GFS; GFS is a bit slower and further west (closer to Guam) than model consensus, but is not too far off. Time Wdir Wspd Xwind Flight TO today Landing today TO tomorrow Landing tomorrow TO Tuesday (TAILWIND) (TAILWIND) (TAILWIND) Landing Tuesday (TAILWIND) TO Wednesday (TAILWIND Comp.79 knots) Wind conditions improve from this point. Thinking is that Tailwind is nonzero when wdir is less than 336.
Longer Range Forecast, ceilings This depends on whether storm moves as progged by JTWC, confidence still low. Tuesday flight – TO, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 40% Tuesday flight – Landing, similar to TO. Wednesday flight – TO, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 30% Wednesday flight – landing, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 30%. Thursday and on. Still moisture at the low levels, so cannot discount the possibility of low ceilings. Ceilings below 1000 are unlikely after Monday.